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Changed subject from FI dispute as I don't want to drag that particular discussion on. The matter is non-existent (at least for me).

I started a new thread re politics because I would like to find out what others think re SoH and the wider medium-term political outlook, what the impact on RKH might be.

The more I look at the behaviour of the US Admin, the more I think they are content with the current situation. They have the upper hand. True, "regime change" and other silly objectives are long gone. But doesn't the blockade of the blockade generate the same outcome? On top of Iran who control the SoH, the US ALSO physically control it and thus call the shots. Looking at it from an oil price and supply pov, not only they affect 10%+ of the world-wide oil flow, they also actively manipulate the prices by playing the cards available to them (such as tapping into US strategic reserves or suppressing the oil forwards by playing the paper markets).

Whether it's discussion boards or conversations with friends and professionals, I observe that people more often than not fail to see past their ideological lenses. That too in itself is another card. This time not an American card but one exclusively for Trump himself. Because he doesn't care. He makes headlines (which is the #1 motivator for him) while simultaneously achieves the objectives of his admin (squeeze China, squeeze Europe, align with Russia, please the domestic oil sector, grab worldwide market share, sell more weapons, and many more). Ah and plus he makes money. So I say to myself: don't let ideology blind you BB, follow the money!

The SoH problem, like LTT also says below, will drag on. I also believe that the overwhelming majority who think the coming 2026 MTs force Trump's hand are also wrong. That includes the Iranian Admin. They are badly miscalculating. When you think in memorised slogans like "oooh oooh Trump is toast because of the war" you are doing a disservice to your investment decisions. I'm not saying he'll do great. I'm saying I can see him calculate. And going to 2026 MTs with the SoH crisis still on is definitely not off the cards. Nor is winning them.

Finally, the relevance to RKH: sadly we are not in production and can't capitalise on the high spot prices atm, but sooner or later the long end of the futures curve will correct sharply. The banks will notice and that will positively impact our project costs. We need to somehow expedite the project and get closer to that first oil. Watch for signals in that regard and the SP will reflect it.

Up Monday morning as we exclusively track SoH news and the news over the weekend are bad for peace. The talks are a waste of time and escalation is coming. Both sides want it. We’ll go to 12.5-13p.

Then Tuesday morning trading update - to hopefully confirm a number of cargoes are being sold with 3-digit price tags and mostly unhedged. We go to 18p.

Then profit-taking and we stabilise in the 16.5-17p range.

Yes @fecm accurate analysis. The US admin issues a warning to Starmer over perceived shifts in the UK’s Atlanticist alignment.

Here’s another instalment of the same move:

Banking giants accused of links to Iranian money laundering

HSBC and Standard Chartered ordered to turn over records by US judge investigating sanctions evasion.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/04/18/banking-giants-accused-links-iran-money-laundering/

A totally fabricated hitjob.

Pakıstan... Jeez :)

ahah it turns out i can't say ****stan on here

strange moment in markets... silly how closely all the oilies' sps are tuned to news/developments regarding the soh...

just look at today.. 12.47 this am to 11.55 now... why? just because some official from iran is "travelling to ****stan for talks". i mean, come on!

i wouldn't go as far as saying the market is stupid, but as usual the weak hands in this are being played by the brokers/mms with such ease...

i don't day-trade shares. but maybe i should... the gig is blatantly open!

Just bugs me how this gets reheated over and over again... The discussion on the FI sovereignty cannot get past the entrenched thinking of the 90s...

Fellow investors, time to catch up with the reality on the ground:

1) Israel & Argentina recently signed the "Isaac Accords" which are modelled after the Abraham Accords, aiming to create a pro-Western, Judeo-Christian-aligned bloc in Latin America.

2) SeaLion is NOT a British project, it is effectively an Israeli one in British waters.

Please put the two together and please read the room.

SeaLion IS getting developed. Yes the UK & Argentina might clash over who collects taxes. Why do we care? Israel (whether you like them or not, a serious can-do state, unlike the UK) will look after the interests of Navitas.

There will be diplomatic clashes of course. And a sufficient number of idiots will panic. I'll gladly buy their shares if it happens. There is no FI dispute risk for SeaLion.

So it seems 90p is our new 75p then ;)

until the next big news it seems we'll trade in the 80s. Fine by me... Although I must admit I'm gutted I missed 79p last Friday and couldn't top up (bloody business trip that day)... You may say well what's the difference, buy now... Sentiment my fellow holders, sentiment :) One needs that "bargain" feeling when one's buying...

I wouldn't dwell on it PGee. I recently bought a batch at 13.10. So, the SP does go higher :) Patience!

@Flavius , thank you - very useful explanation re collars. The Italian proverb also very useful :) thanks!

I may be stating the obvious here, but it comes down to whether the recent Debt Restructuring has forced TLW to alter its previous 60/40 hedge split towards a more conservative mix. I guess we shall see on Tuesday...

PINE is trading on an EV/EBITDA multiple of just under 12x this year, in our view a deep undervaluation for a rapidly growing business with largely recurring revenue from a large, international, and sticky client base. Looking further out, just applying a conservative 10x EV/EBITDA multiple to the midpoint of the £58m-£62m FY28 EBITDA target range suggests a £600m EV. Discounting back two years at 12% gives a £500m m/cap or 416p per-share.

Had sold at 3.48 in November, back today on seeing the upbeat trading update. Bought 30k at 245p just now.

Zeus:

Pinewood has released its FY Dec25 results, a strong performance in line with expectations. This is a very inspiring set of figures underling the healthy position of the business. It has won a raft of major dealerships and the implementations will take time and can be subject to delay, however as the implementations roll out, PINE will pull in high-margin recurring revenues from an international customer base with particularly low churn due to its platform being embedded in their operations.

FY25 revenue rose 29.8% yoy to £40.5m, driven by contribution from the newly acquired Seez AI business, new dealership customers, and cross-selling into the base. It continues to be largely recurring in nature (£33.7m or 83.2% of total) with the balance being implementation and training. The GM slipped a touch with some big implementations underway, to 85.7%, seeing GP up 23.0% yoy to £34.7m. Overheads also rose so Adj. EBITDA was up 17.1% yoy to £16.4m, an impressive 40.5% margin. The Adj. PBT of £8.8m was up 3.5% yoy. The YE cash of £34.1m was substantially improved from the £9.3m LY, thanks to strong operating cash flows augmented by the Mar25 equity raise. YE Total Contracted Value (TCV) was £64.5m; future revenue from signed contracts, underpinning forecasts.

Operationally this has been a busy period. Post acquisition, Seez AI is being integrated into the vehicle sales and aftersales modules. The platform is also being modified for the needs of the N. American market and as noted in the recent update, the roll-out there continues. Testing is underway at Lithia’s US dealers, with Pinewood.AI set to become their central platform engaging with almost all their OEMs. The Lookers implementation is due to be completed in 4Q26, but as announced last year, the rollout into Marshalls previously expected in 1Q26 was delayed to 2H26 due to align with their timing on a number of internal projects. This February, PINE announced the acquisition of its last reseller (in the Netherlands) for £3.3m, adding c.£0.8m EBITDA pa.

Management remains confident and expects Adj. EBITDA for FY26 to be in line with forecasts, while reaffirming its long-term £58-62m target for FY28. That is underpinned by visibility from signed contracts covering c.85% of the projected EBITDA growth and a significant pipeline of opportunities. We emphasize this is a stock with high visibility on earnings with >80% revenue recurring, and just 2.5% net churn, reflecting customer satisfaction and how embedded the platform is with dealers sales and service operations.

FY25 revenue, earnings and cash were pretty much in line with our expectations, but given the implementation delays we have taken the opportunity to trim growth expectations for FY26 and FY27. Nevertheless, earnings growth and cash build up is expected to impress.

cont'd...

Tony thanks, nice steady stream of information, context and commentary. Allow me to add my view that the current conflict appears to be the dawn of a new era for North Sea oilies, as well as any small to mid-size indy players who don't rely on the SoH.

The US admin is doing its utmost to suppress oil futures and play down the impending energy crisis. They are managing the coming shock in the full knowledge that it will happen and will hurt everyone. Their calculus though is it will hurt China the most as the country has to import ~11.5 million barrels per day (~70% of domestic demand). US on the other hand is in the commanding net-exporter position. It's pretty clear to me which way the SoH conflict will go. Iran will face the reality of having to agree a new tolling system with the US, because China will tell them to do so. It's either that or China will have to relax its export ban on critical REEs. Ultimately these negotiations and power plays take time to play out. Hence "golden era" for indy players.

Fascinating piece thank you for sharing @Luke2 !

Something caught my attention... The daily average volume 3 Months was 25.00 Million shares. 1 Month 28.40 Million shares. But last week 13-17 April the SP went down almost 20% on less than half the 1-month average volume.

A "hollow" sell-off so to speak... This sets up an interesting scenario for the April 28 results: if the news is even slightly better than expected, the hollow nature of last week's drop means the SP may quickly break out to the upside because there isn't much heavy selling resistance to overcome.

Here's before I filter you D(r)aft

https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/events/

Ahah, see those 5m buys half an hour later? Niiice!

ZYX098, this bit made me laugh "or they are making contingency plans in the background and trying not to spook everyone"

If there's one thing I KNOW about the impending energy crisis, it's that the UK Government are NOT making contingency plans. I don't know when the penny will drop for the general public but these politicians do not represent us ordinary citizens in any way. They couldn't be less interested in our welfare. Safety maybe yes, because "consumers" are necessary.

On a separate note, my CT bells are ringing... It's impossible not to read the complacency re SoH and the Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil Export Infra simultaneously.

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2045400938933002656?s=20

An energy crisis is highly desired it seems. Our next Covid moment?

Why, do you mean they'll announce 2025 results dry and say nothing re 2026?

2026 Trading Update 28/4 - I expect it to be a blast but let's analyse:

- The Swap Status: Look for confirmation that the $1.28 billion senior secured notes due in May 2026 have been successfully exchanged for the new notes maturing in November 2028. I think we have this de facto in the 20/4 announcement "Tullow Oil to redeem USD 100 million of 10.25% secured notes at par April 23". This is not a sign that Tullow is suddenly swimming in excess cash. Instead, it was successful surgery. By paying this $100 million now, TLW have successfully executed what they said in the Refinancing Update (April 8, 2026). It was the admission price for the Extension

- Liquidity Buffer: They’ve guided for liquidity headroom in excess of $200 million. Any update on the final size of the $100 million cargo prepayment facility from Glencore will be key for their working capital flexibility.

- Production Guidance: Expect them to reiterate or refine their 2026 working interest production target of 34,000 – 42,000 boepd

- Jubilee Wells: They planned to bring five Jubilee wells onstream this year. The first (J74-P) started strong in January (~13 kbopd). You should expect an update on the second well (J75-P), which was slated to come onstream around the end of Q1 2026

- Gas Monetization: Ghana recently ratified the extension of their Petroleum Agreements to 2040. Look for details on the "escalating price" of gas sales ($2.50/mmbtu) and the status of the $110 million in historical gas receivables still owed by the Government of Ghana

- 2026 Free Cash Flow: They previously signalled a potential doubling of cash flow if oil prices remain supportive. They’ve guided for $150–180 million in pre-financing cash flow (at $65/bbl).

- The "Kenya Payment": They are waiting on a $40 million installment from the Kenya asset disposal, contingent on the ratification of the Field Development Plan (FDP). Confirmation of this receipt would be a major sentiment booster

- Capex: They’ve set a budget of roughly $200 million for the year. Any deviation here will signal how aggressively they are pursuing infill drilling to offset natural field decline

All in all, there are several potential good news in there. What catches my imagination is the Free Cash Flow bit, underpinned by the current dated Brent pricing. If they can give news of cargoes sold in excess of $100 the SP would react!