Member Info for BB_hoppa

So let me get this right... On the discussion board of a junior oil explorer, whose senior partner (on whom everything in its flagship project depends) is Israeli.....

You see where I'm going with this? Evidently, the muppetry of some participants on here has no bounds... Muppetry at the very least, two-faced disgusting virtue signalling more likely.. Invest WITH them, but have a go AT them behind a the cloak of unanimity.....

I am no defender of any one nation other than my own. But at least I know where to keep my mouth shut.

Having typed all that... Who knows if some of these muppets are even investors of RKH.. Honestly!?!

Bluegrass, do you want to be informed? Or do you just want to be pampered with rosy pictures so you can feel good about your position?

In my post this morning there is information. In yours there's nothing but whining.

I am in fact on record for saying I do trade. I even suggest it as a strategy. Look up the thread "all traders" if you're truly interested.

"they" will of course use the lack of news and shake the tree..

Short-termist PIs whose hopes are incessantly stirred by T-man here, hold your nerve!

Those with dry-powder to use: 4.50p is a fantastic entry point. I missed it at the opening this morning but I plan to add if I see it again.

Interesting alternate view on the Iran conflict. Essentially making the point that the US knows what it's doing.

https://x.com/avavidan/status/2042992890666787115?s=48

Whether the article is correct in its analysis or not, the direct relevance to RKH is in this bit:

Asian refiners have redirected demand toward US Gulf Coast barrels to fill the shortfall from Middle East shut ins estimated at 7.5 to 9.1 million barrels per day. The surge not only caps price spikes but also cements American producers as the flexible swing supplier to Asia

Our partner Navitas is winning "bigly" and the current (supply disruption / revamping) trends suggest once in production SeaLion will be in an extremely strategic position!!

Seems Monday's going to be a bloodbath for non-war stocks. RKH will be ok. Funny that last week's "deadline bet" will be in the money albeit with some delay.

Good post Messi10, thank you. A good dose of realism and a very much needed balancing act against the regurgitation of existing info on this board. The incessant ramping campaign (which frankly isn’t needed) was beginning to be a major issue.

Having said that, in your excessive pessimism you’re totally missing a rather basic point. There is a FV assessment of 32p out there (unrisked). Obviously, the market has priced in all the risks you listed and whilst fully aware of the necessary waiting time and arrived at the current SP of 5p.

There have been a number of notable PPs recently. Do you think they came into this with starry eyes and all sentimental too?

So T-man, the week's out. Let's recap based on your post

1. Cobre cash news tue/wed - nah

2. Zeus FV this week - nah

3. Angel FV (soon) - soon

4. LC news overdue / this month: we'll see

5. Coffey - nah (on this I was wrong too)

And yet.... the SP has gone up by 25%.

what do you think?

I'm not a chart guy and frankly don't understand T/A. I'm still writing this for two reasons: 1) journal-keeping and 2) to test my gut feel against the future.

looking at the short-term (30-day) trend, my feel is the current 84p is not within the range where this SP will sit in the next few months. From here it's either another leg up to 95p (to then search the new range) or down to 77-81p and sit there for months like it did (in the 70-75p range) prior to the reserve-update. I won't be trading but my money would be on the latter.

What can change all that is whether we'll be bundled with all the other oilies when priced against the day-to-day developments in the conflict zone.

Canillasboy, I thought of the same but would you do this on a share with 5%+ bid/ask spread at the best of times? I just don't see how (the dump leg) can be achieved, but then again I don't know much about the broker tricks that can be deployed...

Forensic, I concur with your analysis of what's going on in the background (the brokers). There isn't bigger volume but there's volume of a different kind, unmissable: larger buys 9-12am. 2 weeks now. New investors positioning. Perhaps each one still not large enough to warrant a RNS though..

Forensic, I'll one up that: it may just be institutional buy-ins (like last week tuesday and no-news), which would be even better imo.. Any positve RNS later would start off a new rally from a higher SP base. That is without even going into the positives of attracting more & more Institutional money...

Addicknt, thanks. I should have said brokers (maybe a Fredudian slip there?). And your point prompted me to double check. So MMs can and do act as Brokers, so long as they tell you on your trade confirmation whether they acted as an agent or principal for that specific transaction.

LTT, Goldman are utter clowns for saying that. Obviously they were told to talk the long end of the curve down.

Everything we’ve seen so far in the conflict points to an Ukraine redux here. They will be there for years. I think one aspect of the conflict above all is certain: the alternate pipeline construction (to bypass hormuz) will be expedited.

The rally is fading as I type this..

If we see no news come out this week then it's confirmed: it was indeed a MM buying for an institutional. Very, very good!!

I don't think the rise yesterday & today is down to impending Broker FVs. it's something else.

Hi Supra, the buys are small and smallish-mid-size mixed and irregular, doesn't look like MMs to me. More like the mothers and cousins of those in the know. Either way a SP rise is a SP rise, very much welcome! My post-MRE update [urchases are all in the money atm but am not planning to skim. It's good that we're 5p+ atm and the next leg up starts from a higher base.

Very good post cb, thank you! They average PI is generally oblivious to risks. This is one of them.

Nice SP this morning :) Like I said, major move preceding major news, now let's see what it is..

Tungsten is a critical mineral vital to military hardware and industrial applications, including oil drilling. Yet, prices have risen tenfold in the past year, threatening both. This episode explores China’s capture of tungsten production and how it is now wielded as an economic weapon. What is tungsten, how is it mined and processed, and what does this mean for the West?

Speaking to our host Paul Chapman on this episode is William Parry-Jones, founder of Wolfram Advisory, a consultancy supporting clients in capturing value across the Tungsten and other critical minerals supply chains.

https://www.hcgroup.global/insights/hc-insider-podcast/tungsten-with-william-parry-jones

My main takeaways:

- You hardly ever see anything made of Tungsten, but pretty much EVERYTHING you're looking at was produced by machinery that has Tungsten components.

- The demand side is pretty much tracked to WGDPgrowth, ~2%. Demand is definitely inelastic, demand is not the exciting story here, it's supply!

- 17:45 trading and liquidty. Most of the market is traded OTC, little fwd activity.

- 20:00 Recent price history and how China moved to control exports.

- China buys most of the rest of the world production too. Western buyers struggle to find reliable suppliers.

- 28:00 Junior miners like SML, 20-30 stocks that are attracting investor interest (from 3-4 a year ago). Fantastic time to raise equity.

- 29:00 Is it a bet on the disruption of supply continuing? And the US building strategic reserves? Yes it's very risky, China can change poliy at any point. But he expects the tension w China to continue for many more years.

- 30:30 how long does it take to start a mine? Only 1-2 existing suppliers might expand and only 2-3 brand new mines coming onstream in the next year or so. 3-5 years for new primary miners to come onstream to meet the deficit.

- 31:30 :) Not the one in Cornwall, is it? Very near term: Vietnam, Australia, Spain, Portugal, then 3-5 years: Canada, N.America, Europe, Australia, beyond the 5 year: very big projects in C.Asia. The darling of the equity markets (no names) one in South Korea.

-32:20 England? Well there's a mine in Devon on it's 3rd go-around, given the current team there I think they will be successful, but you know the UK, it's not a mining-friendly jurisdiction.

- 34:40 Potential US Gov't equity support.

- 36:00 The trading aspect.

I'm quite happy to see volume-backed rise (this morning). Always a healthy look, and generally a strong indicator that the next leg up is round the corner. Looking good!!

Looking at the curve as I type this... Brent $92 right now looks an attractive point to position for the summer when the M/E supply is extremely unlikely to recover (for reasons which were very well explained in this thread). I just don't see where the market will come up with the ~11.0 MMbbl/d disrupted in the M/E...

Country Estimated Production Offline Notes

Iraq ~3.3 MMbbl/d Southern terminals hit; only minor exports via Turkey remain

Saudi Arabia ~2.5 MMbbl/d Significant volumes stranded due to Strait of Hormuz closur

UAE ~2.0 MMbbl/d Some exports continue via Fujairah, but most capacity is shut i

Kuwait ~1.6 MMbbl/d Almost entirely dependent on the Strait; nearly all production offline.

Iran ~1.5 MMbbl/d Direct bombing of Kharg Island and other wells has crippled exports