Member Info for BB_hoppa

Forgot to add why I think leak of FID is important: the anticipation of FID and actual FID are two different markers for two different sets of players. Most Institutionals (like Pension Funds for example) are bound by rules that compel them to invest only when a project is de-risked. Therefore while some players (like Hedgies) will buy the anticipation (and have been), others will buy the realisation. Hence the higher the SP base at the time of FID the better for current LTHs.

Fantastic news and exactly what Investment Bankers needed to get their facility for SeaLion approved internally.

@Bigred, for my part it's not the FID I'm waiting for but the leak of it, evidenced by chunky buys in the absence of news and a BIG leap in the SP to £125p region. Furthermore I think the 90p spike we saw early-September more and more resembles a false start for one institutional, who then unwound the position, taking us back to where we are. The same will happen in the next two weeks imo, this time never to be unwound fingers crossed.

I don't normally second guess every trade but there's one I can't help but wonder.. My system shows a fairly large trade of 2,701,349 shares at 12:35 UK time on Monday 6th Oct. Indicative of an institutional taking a position or offloading. I would love to know which tbh.

If the volume wasn't this low, I'd attribute it to insiders who know the FID will not be soon. But no. The volume is very low so best ignored.

On a separate note, if we go under 70p I'm topping up.

One thing is certain: the shareholder composition for RKH will change dramatically in the immediate post-FID period. Congrats in advance to those who will be able to resist selling. It'll be very hard to see 125-150p and hold on.

As to how this will play out: my humble life experience tells me any prediction now is bound to miss the mark. The trading sessions around the FID announcement will likely play out very differently to what mere mortals like me can imagine, let alone forecast.

And to those who think they might sell and then buy back in when the SP retreats: good luck, I hope you succeed! I certainly won't be trying. But I will look out for unexpected swings under the 60p mark. Dry powder readied.

Hi, I've done some research on this company and I like what I see. I am considering investing my full ISA allowance. As part of my research I highly value the bits of information that can be found on discussion boards. If there is a long-term holder here who'd like to help, can they please share their investment case in a few words? Thanks in advance.

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH.L, 73.2p, £472m) Rockhopper's interims have been published this morning. The numbers include no surprises, with the key event during the period being the US$140m conditional equity raise, which will be accounted for once a final investment decision is made on Sea Lion (which will trigger the release of the funds from escrow). To this end, progress, driven by operator Navitas, is ongoing, with an unchanged target of 2H25. Rockhopper expects an announcement confirming this, bar any surprises, to serve as its next RNS update. For completeness, Rockhopper today reported a bottom-line loss amounting to US$51m, driven by the non-cash US$46m write-down of the value of the monetisation agreement (the Ombrina Mare annulment claim). The payout from the insurance policy in early H2 bolstered the coffers to a healthy cash position of US$54m at the end of August.

The broker's latest recommendation:

Rockhopper Exploration 9 June 25 Buy 45.0p 105.2p

Nice tip BB3 sadly my sipp provider won't let me touch it.

For my part I don't mind the off-topic posts so long as it's about investing. There a re some very astute posters here and I value their opinion. Hell, just by virtue of someone being a long-term holder of RKH they are worth my time!

Also I'd much rather see off-topic posts than Divi's constant misinformation and the other posters who can't resist* the bait.

(*) I know it's not my place to tell fellow posters what to do. Having said that, my I kindly suggest well-intentioned participants to just filter certain names and ignore?

I am in the "FID could drop at anytime" camp. Except, I think it won't be sudden. We will first see heavy buys coming without any news out and we'll know something's up.

Our view is that Sea Lion FID is very much odds on to happen in the coming months. We expect the Falklands Islands government to be fully supportive and forthcoming with clearances. The debt facility process appears to be going well and to be involving a number of counterparties, and the JV partners’ equity raises will have provided important support here, with Navitas also able to make use of its Shenandoah cash flows for internal funding. There have been reports of the project targeting the Aoka Mizu FPSO for some time, and rigs should also be available, having been deployed to the Falklands previously. The timeline remains for FID in Q4 2025, and we currently see no reason this will not be achieved.

[...} Sea Lion, in which Rockhopper holds 35%, remains a globally significant project, with Phase 1 targeting development of 170mmbbl and peak production of 55mbbl/d for CAPEX of US$1.7bn to first oil (US$2.1bn total). Phase 2 could then add another 144mmbbl to maintain the plateau, while Phase 3 could then target an additional 414mmbbl with peak production increased by 100mbbl/d using a larger FPS. Total discovered 2C resources of 917mmbbl overall. This is a large opportunity set, representing significant value for Rockhopper and Navitas on Phase 1 FID, while also providing positive endorsement for the attractiveness and fundability of projects in the Falklands more broadly.

We have updated our forecasts, now assuming Sea Lion takes FID before the end of 2025. This involves adding in the equity raise (which is conditional on FID) and subsequent CAPEX spending as the project progresses to our 2025 and 2026 forecasts.

We have updated our valuation to include the effect of the recent US$140m equity raise and the planned EUR8m (US$9.2m) open offer. At the same time we have de-risked Sea Lion in our model to reflect the progress made towards FID and our view of the likelihood of this occurring in the coming months. This sees our total risked NAV increase from 68p to 95p

Conclusion: The volumes in Sea Lion, 917mmbbl of gross 2C, make the field a world-class asset with the potential to create significant value for Rockhopper. The challenge historically has been progressing this to FID. Operator Navitas [..] reworking the development plan and focusing on securing full funding and moving to FID. Navitas represents a strong partner here, supported by its Shenandoah project, which came onstream in July 2025. The conditional US$140m Rockhopper equity fundraise carried out in July 2025, alongside proceeds connected with the Italian arbitration, provides the company’s share of Sea Lion equity funding through to first oil, with closure of the project debt facility upcoming. In our view, Rockhopper is now in a very good spot, and we expect upside for the shares as it completes the final elements on the route to Sea Lion FID, expected in the coming months. We have a Buy recommendation and a target price of 95p (from 68p) in-line with our total risk

H1 25 has been a very busy period for Rockhopper, but not much of that is reflected in the interim financials. The major financial events, the equity raise ($140m) and receipt of Ombrina Mare (OM) arbitration insurance (€31m), came in July and August respectively. The focus has been, and continues to be, very firmly on reaching Sea Lion project FID, still targeted by YE25. Balance sheet => now very strong and (with anticipated project financing) enough to support Sea Lion development to first oil and beyond

• Cash at mid 2025 of $21.7m (YE24 $20.9m).

• Capital raise in July of $140m (at 53p) plus warrants (1 for every 4 new shares, priced at 80p). If fully exercised, warrants would provide c.$54m additional cash. The $140m raised is held in escrow pending Sea Lion FID.

• Received €31m pre-tax for the OM monetisation. Post tax we estimate net $31m.

• An open offer of up to €8m is expected shortly after Sea Lion FID.

Sea Lion project => further progress

• Rockhopper published a resource evaluation by Netherland Sewell Associates (NSAI) in June. This confirmed gross 2C resources of 917 mmbbls (Navitas, operator, 65%; Rockhopper, 35%) with 727 mmbbls gross 'development pending'.

• Work continues towards confirmation of project financing leading to FID, targeted by YE25.

Valuation, target price and rating:

We leave our risked NPV12.5 based target price unchanged at 90p and maintain our Speculative BUY rating.

What unnecessary immature name-calling…

Filtered…

Illustrates the fact that there are no buyers nor sellers, just machines who act on a pre-determined algo to buy/sell opportunistically..

Calm down dear (in Michael Winner’s voice) it’s geopolitics! These things take a long time to play out. The Falklands dispute is not new. Don’t think the people working on project never thought about it being a risk factor. It’s not in Navitas’ interest (and for that matter nor the bankers who want nice bonuses this year) to delay the FID and allow room for speculation. If anything they should now expedite it.

He is cornered domestically and his government is only alive thanks to the lifeline Bessent has thrown him yesterday. He just can’t afford to bite Trump’s hand by attacking Israeli oil projects. What he’ll do is very clear: pay lip service to Falklands claims for domestic consumption and then do nothing (not that Argentina can do anything anyway). They’d have to Cuba/Venezuella themselves to Russia. For what?

ZYX nice find and good post thank you. To clarify the optimism in my initial post: I have zero expectation that the UK's current Communist government will ever do the right thing on any subject, let alone energy independence. These demons only work towards the single goal of harming the country (along with all the other globalist servants in power in the EU and elsewhere who are tasked to do the same).

My North-sea optimism is for the post-Labour era, fuelled by the contrarian expectation that Trump will do well in the midterms while Starmer's destructive government will eventually make a mistake and fall (or go to elections with misplaced belief that they can win).

Reform, when they are in (god willing) will drill baby drill.. That's guaranteed, if they can come to power. For investors it'll be about timing their buys. i shared that list which I got from Grok and started doing my research. There is time.

Harbour is a BUY, I've had this feeling for some time now. North Sea drillers' best days are ahead of them.

Company Name Key Role in North Sea Drilling/Operations

BP Plc Major integrated operator; drills and produces from fields like Clair, Schiehallion, and ETAP; extensive exploration.

Shell Plc Major operator; involved in drilling at fields like Penguins and Pierce; focuses on both oil and gas.

Harbour Energy Plc Largest UK independent producer; operates hubs like Armada and Tolmount; active driller in multiple quadrants.

Ithaca Energy Independent operator; drills in fields like Greater Stella Area and Captain; acquired Siccar Point Energy.

EnQuest Plc Independent focused on mature fields; drilling at Magnus, Kraken, and Scolty; emphasizes enhanced recovery.

INEOS UK E&P Holdings Operator in southern North Sea; involved in drilling gas fields like Breagh and Clipper.

Centrica Plc Through subsidiaries like Spirit Energy; drills in Morecambe Bay and Cygnus gas fields.

Serica Energy Plc Independent operator; drilling at Bruce, Keith, and Rhum fields; gas-focused.

Neptune Energy Private operator; drills in Cygnus and Seagull; owned by international investors but UK-headquartered.

Perenco UK Private independent; operates multiple southern North Sea gas fields with ongoing drilling.

Kistos Plc Emerging operator; acquired Tulip Oil assets; drilling in Q10-A gas field.

Dana Petroleum Limited Operator in western Shetland; drilling at fields like Hudson; owned by KNOC but UK-based operations.

Tullow Oil Plc Exploration and production; holds non-operated interests with drilling in several blocks.

Capricorn Energy Plc Exploration-focused; drilling prospects in UK sector post-Egypt shift.

Jersey Oil & Gas Plc Exploration company; developing Greater Buchan Area with potential drilling.

Deltic Energy Plc Exploration; holds licences for Pensacola and Selene prospects with drilling plans.

Parkmead Group Plc Independent; operates Perth field and has drilling interests in Platypus.

NEO Energy Independent backed by HitecVision; operates Glendronach and Quad 9; active driller.

Today at the UN he touched upon the North Sea topic as well:

"...are being taxed out of drilling. They’ve given up their powerful edge, a lot of the countries that we’re talking about, in oil and gas, such as essentially closing the great North Sea oil,” he said.

“Oh, the North Sea. I know it so well. “Aberdeen was the oil capital of Europe and there’s tremendous oil that hasn’t been found in the North Sea – tremendous oil.

“And I was with the Prime Minister (Sir Keir Starmer) – I respect and like a lot – and I said, ‘you’re sitting with the greatest asset’.

“They essentially closed it by making it so highly-taxed that no developer, no oil company, can go there.

“They have tremendous oil left and, more importantly, they have tremendous oil that hasn’t even been found yet. And what a tremendous asset for the United Kingdom, and I hope the Prime Minister’s listening because I told it to him three days in a row – that’s all he heard: North Sea oil, North Sea.”

Mr Trump said the prime minister is ruining beautiful Scottish and English countryside with windmills and solar panels.

Great post, only thing I'd like to add: we will likely come to know that FID is happening ahead of time, through a spike in buying volumes.

Only the uninitiated can think there’s an Israel/Palestine risk on RKH. Frankly you shouldn’t be in sharedealing if your geopolitical analysis consists of reading the MSM and getting scared. If you find yourself in that camp please sell. I only wish I had spare funds to buy your shares. Goodbye.