Member Info for BB_hoppa

Look here 👇

Following the firm placing ($115m, at 53p/sh) and now shareholder approval for both the conditional placing ($25m, at 53p/sh) and the proposed open offer (up to €8m, at 53p/sh), we update our model to include the placing (total $140m, 204m shares incl. interest shares) to go alongside the consequent reduction, in our view, of Sea Lion project financing risk. The $140m funds are held in escrow pending Sea Lion FID. If the project is not sanctioned by 31 March 2026, then those funds plus interest will be returned to the investors. The net impact of these adjustments - share dilution, strengthened balance sheet and project financing derisking - on our target price is a small increase. But we think that confirmation of RKH's financial capacity to fund its projected equity share of the Sea Lion (Navitas, operator, WI 65%; Rockhopper WI 35%) development to (and beyond) first oil is a much more significant step forward for the company.

Cashflow mechanics RKH equity share: $102m to first oil (gross $1.79bn project costs, $1bn project finance, after Navitas' zero coupon loan to RKH of 2/3 of RKH capex share, and contingencies). RKH also has ongoing corporate costs (c.$35m) and expected pre-production decomm. liabilities (c. $40m) over the next three years. Total projected outgoings $177m. Cash resources include the pre-costs $140m placing, $22m mid-24 cash, and €31m Ombrina Mare insurance. Total current resources c.$190m. We expect RKH will be fully funded for the Sea Lion project even in the absence of any warrants exercise or the open offer.

As a result, our NPV12.5 based target price increases to 90p (from 86p), assuming 874.7m shares following the placing (but excluding potential open offer and warrants conversion). With project financing in place and full financial derisking, our valuation would rise to 104p/share (unrisked 125p), all else being equal. We keep our Speculative BUY rating, but note the rising confidence that Sea Lion project sanction is now very close.

80 today is not impossible now.

Question for the savvy posters here: do you think there could be an institutional who had to fully de-risk prior to the GM result today and is now getting back on?

But how can they be so risk-averse (and uninformed tbh) to doubt this GM result was not in the bag, while at the same time have such risk appetite to be in a share like RKH? Puzzling tbh...

Hi, the regulars on this board have been scratching their heads on the same question for the past few days.. It seems to me sharedealing professionals who have been tasked to build a stake for an institutional investor have first ramped the SP up from 75p to 90p (specifically on the 4th Sep) to create a to-the-moon sentiment. Personally I fell for it.

Then immediately starting 5th September, they used the otherwise low volume nature of RKH to persistently sell small quantities to generate a sell-off sentiment.

In the process they presumably scooped up the sells of every investor who panicked (like one this morning for sure).

This is my take but note that I am saying these as a novice in sharedealing.

There appears to be one seller who offloaded ~1m shares this morning. But the question is why THIS day, when they could have done so at any point in the past week? Nerves I suppose...

That's it. Filtering Divi. Too many posts.

"Lack of News and low trading volumes will push the sp to 60p-65p range."

I hope not! But yes there is a chance it happens. So better be prepared, no? Last Friday I sold shares from other holdings in my portfolio and at 65p I will be able to add ~100k RKH.

Bring it on!

I'm still thinking of the one large buyer of Thursday last week (3-4m shares avg 85p). No calendar event, no news, nothing to cause a widespread buy or sell around that day.

I sense the same applies to this week's low-volume deramping all of this week.

Don't forget, for every sell there is a buy. Very much looks like a stake is being built.

I see Happy's posts as a useful dose of pessimism. Echo chambers are not good.

The PA of the past week is directly proportional to the volume, unmissable visual correlation.

Only thing I can think of is professional players (hedgies?) who want to increase their stake are making use of low volume days to pull the SP down and plan to enter sub-80 levels.

Yes Naystick, I posted earlier with a similar grievance ;)

I suppose what this shows us is investors in general are rather lazy.

"Oooh there's an RNS let me look"..

If not, they wouldn't do their own research and stumble on a promising share like RKH.

in contrast, a guy I know, self-made wall street millionaire, once told me his secret: since the age of 16 he's been personally reading company reports and doing research no less than 10 hrs a day... I estimate he's worth middle 9 figures by now.

I am no expert on sharedealing.. That's probably why it astonishes me right now that there are sellers out there, exiting this share on the eve of a near-certain FID... I then think to myself hmm maybe they are in the know (of the timetable) and are trading around it... But then again, with the (still) wide bid/ask margin, RKH is not the ideal share to trade like that... Still scratching my head....

Indeed. Bought 2800 shares at 2465p yesterday and very happy with it!! My rational was the following:

- SP at almost all-time low (for no reason other than being part of a currently unloved sector)

- Analyst consensus @3600p

- Good bet for the next big flu scare!

Exit strategy: Won't think about it before @3500.

I thought there might be low volume today but no.. SP is going down on decent volume... Scratching my head tbh.. Any theories anyone?

I went into TLW with a small stake. Pure gamble based on their imminent debt restructuring. I expect the creditors will wipe out a lot of shareholder value but the SP probably already has that baked in. If it drops to say 5p (essentially half curr value) I may double my stake. This is the next Premier gamble basically, although in that case I lost money...

We're looking good

Spacehoppa, you are 100% correct. I should maybe clarify that my use of the word "explosion" is not made with reference to any technicals or any important milestones on the way to first oil... I'm merely making a prediction based on my view of the (investment) world as it currently is: millions of personal investors watching (often charlatan) "influencers" and jumping at anything that moves fast, which RKH will soon be.

This stock WILL be subject to a massive hype and the subsequent FOMO frenzy, given the absence of a similar recovery story in the FTSE for god knows how long...

Space, with all due respect, there is no "trading zone" as far as the next few weeks are concerned. We're standing at the precipice of a SP explosion!

And there aren't many sellers, I'm loving it