Member Info for BB_hoppa

Patience. Is the word.

Canaccord Genuity view Rockhopper has announced that its board, alongside Navitas', has taken FID on the Falklands Sea Lion project. As it stands, Financial Close is expected to come in the next couple of weeks following a couple of condition precedents. Once Financial Close is achieved, the proceeds of the $140m placing are expected to be released to the company, and the planned Open Offer will be launched. While the company has identified some cost escalation associated with the project, as it currently stands, Rockhopper remains fully funded. Of course, if we were to see delays, or further cost increases, the funding buffer would need to be readdressed, but at this time we see no requirement. Overall, we view this as excellent news and yet another step closer to realising the significant value to be unlocked with Sea Lion. We look forward to hearing news on the Financial Close in the coming weeks.

Most of us here have over-analised the FID (understandably since we had too much time on our hands as PIs of a company with a single event on the horizon). In other words - we read too much into the FID.

Similarly now I suspect we're reading too much into the post-FID retreat in the SP.

Brent is 2% down on the day. We have been (probably the only share) immune to the oil price slump in the last 6 months. No more so, for obvious reasons.

Added 2m shares just now at 1.2764.

Happily building my stake here. Total holdings 5.5m now. Plan to add more in the coming days if it drops under 1.1.

Remember this post folks!

Dec 11 (Reuters) – BP said on Thursday it had delivered its first oil from its Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion project in the critical Gulf of Mexico region two months ahead of schedule.

The Gulf of Mexico is key to BP's upstream portfolio amid the oil giant's refocus on its oil and gas segment. The company plans to ramp up production in the region to more than 400,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) by 2030.

The two-well subsea tieback to BP's existing Atlantis platform will add gross peak production of around 15,000 boed, BP said.

The company was also the highest bidder on Wednesday at the U.S. government's first sale of oil and gas drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico since 2023.

BP, which operates Atlantis with a 56% working interest alongside Australia's Woodside Energy , said five of its seven project startups this year have come online ahead of schedule.

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I ALWAYS has this hunch: it will be BP to buy us out of SeaLion. Some kind of rapprochement is brewing between Argentina and the UK, it's in the news.

Dezzab, the price has stabilised imo, at 75p. It was there for a period pre-FID anyway. This is what the market thinks we're worth atm. Positive news on oil, SeaLion project developments, new coverage by prominent brokers, rumours of takeovers etc, these will tick the SP up bit by bit to 3-digits in the next few months.

We underestimate how unloved oil is atm. The "OMG huge glut" talk has to dissipate before we can edge higher from here. Q1.

I must agree. The camp I was in was wrong. Happy was right. Evidently the FID was more than priced in. To arrive at any other conclusion when the evidence is staring me in the face would be zealotry. That's how you lose money.

thanks Happy. For my part, Lesson learnt.

Re future: I will hold what I have and look to add if I see this in the 60s. My uneducated guess is this is currently worth 95p. There's also always the high probability that Shells BPs of this world will come to buy us out.

.... Previous Rockhopper equity raise will now complete, and open offer proceed. Rockhopper raised US$140m of new equity at 53p/share in the summer. This money has been held in escrow pending FID, and will be released to the company in the coming weeks once the debt facility is closed. There is also an open offer of up to EUR8m associated with the equity raise, also at 53p/share, and this is expected to go ahead post closure of the debt facility.  Overall, this is a great moment for Rockhopper and, in our view, the wider UK oil and gas sector. It demonstrates a smaller company’s ability to make a discovery, bring in a partner, and continue its participation to FID and, in due course, material production. As it has become apparent that this was likely to happen over the last 12-18 months, Rockhopper shares have shown strong performance (up around 5x), demonstrating the significant returns to be had when smaller companies are able to progress material assets in this way. While Rockhopper’s path to this achievement on Sea Lion has not always been the most direct, our point is that this has ultimately been accomplished. This reflects well on Rockhopper itself, but also provides positive read across for the potential of numerous smaller companies involved in material assets across the UK-listed oil and gas sector.

Going forward, in the near term we look for closure of the project debt facility, and beyond this periodic development updates as project operations ramp up over 2026. We maintain our Buy recommendation, and increase our price target from 95p to 100p, in line with our total risked NAV.  Forecasts and valuation. We have updated our forecasts to allow for receipt of the cash from the US$140m equity raise and open offer in early 2026. We have also tweaked our CAPEX based on the new US$1.8bn prior to first oil on Sea Lion expectation. On valuation, we have updated our CAPEX numbers, and partially derisked Sea Lion Phases 1 and 2. Overall this sees our total risked NAV move from 95p to 100p.

... FID on the development of Sea Lion. Importantly, this includes the finalisation of US$1bn of project funding (subject to customary CPs), and a settlement agreement with the (FIG) with regard to the previously announced disputed tax liability. FID, while well flagged, is an important milestone for the Sea Lion project, marking the start of the long-awaited development phase. The RNS includes more granularity around project costs, which have crept up slightly, and a bond to be lodged with the FIG to cover the Early Project Failure (EPF) support has also risen by cUS$12.5m net to Rockhopper. The company remains sufficiently funded, save any material cost increases, to deliver first oil from the Sea Lion project. The next steps will be financial close of the financing, expected in the coming weeks. This will trigger completion of the US$140m equity placing (announced in late July), and allow for the launch of the open offer (announced at the time of the placing) which is expected to raise a further US$9.2m. While reaching FID for such a major project is clearly positive, the RNS highlights the challenges and risks that remain in delivering first oil from Sea Lion. — Debt secured: Rockhopper expects to close the US$1bn senior debt facility in the coming weeks (of which Rockhopper’s debt is US$350m). Rockhopper’s facility will have a seven-year tenor, with a semi-annual straight-line amortisation schedule starting in March 2029. Interest will be paid at SOFR (currently 3.95%) plus 525bps prior to project completion, falling to 425-475bps post first oil. Standard hedging requirements, covenants and default provisions are included. — FIG tax dispute settled: As previously announced, the FIG was claiming that Rockhopper owed £59.6m in deferred tax, stemming from Premier Oil’s farm-in to the licence in October 2012. As part of the FID process, Rockhopper and the FIG have reached a settlement agreement, phasing a £30m payment over the period up to the fifth anniversary of first oil. The bulk of the payments (£21m in total) are to be paid in three tranches on the third, fourth and fifth anniversary of first oil, meaning on DCF, the settlement amounts to a modest sum (NPV10 of £16.2m). — Costs inching up highlighting remaining risks: The latest estimate of project costs assumes US$1.8bn funding requirement to first oil and US$2.1bn to project completion. This represents a US$142m escalation (+8.6%) from previous estimates. Furthermore, the net cost of Early Project Failure support required by the FIG (effectively financial assurance to cover any unforeseen accidents) has risen from US$40m, to an estimated US$52.5m. While Rockhopper remains fully funded to reach this FID, and has addition funds to be coming in the coming weeks (the open offer allows for a further US$9.2m priced at 53p/shr and there are 49.6m warrants issued during the recent placing priced at 80p/shr), substantial increases in project costs could result in additional fund

Now that the day’s dust has settled….. Has anyone else spared any thought on what may have triggered the in-hours announcement? I am still scratching my head tbh. Don’t suppose the FI elections are a viciously fought battle or something but FID in-session right before the polls opened?? A little strange tbh. One can come up with any number of scenarios 🤔

I proudly claim the honour of posting the last message before the FID, saying naaah this’ll be on the 22nd 🤣

All Rockhopper employees, Sam Moody, and the Board, thank you so much for your hard work and perseverance. You finally brought us to this historic day. Thank you!! And fellow LTH heartfelt congratulations to you all 🍾

Vampa, it's not "the market" selling, it's the trigger happy small investors who came in only for the FID RNS. look at the volume. It's not there..

Golden Rule: if I want something, it won't happen...

I now want this to drop all the way to 70p because I wish to fill my boots...

We'll close the day in 90s. Guarantee it!

I don't mind the drop one bit... Have prepared dry powder to top up if it stays like this... bring it on!!!

Like I posted on the previous thread: My money is on the 22nd Monday. Any time before that (for the reasons you elaborate) is impractical, plus would look inelegant.

Big league offtake partners like Glencore generally come in with 10-year pre-pay deals. Very straightforward, as the name suggests the offtaker prepays for a certain volume for the next 10 years with a pre-set price mechanism, which is ideal of course as it also eliminates commodity price uncertainty. The question is whether Redmoor is large enough to generate interest for such a prepay. If yes, there will be zero need for debt.

The announcement is somewhere between 16th & 23rd December. Nothing before or after makes sense. You can't drop a transformative event in the middle of an election campaign, you can't make a huge announcement before the new MPs have taken their seats, the business year ends on the 24th, so even 23rd is a stretch. My money is on the 22nd Monday.