Member Info for BB_hoppa

Thank you Supra, I refer to your reply to my SIPP advice question on the other forum.. I presume you trade SML from within your II SIPP? This is important because if I go to II, I don't want my SML shares sold because II couldn't handle them...

I'm planning to leave my current SIPP provider (Aegon) who are very poor in share dealing. Anything not-FTSE100 is virtually impossible to trade on Aegon.

I'm thinking II or HL, but I'd very much appreciate recommendations from SIPP users.

Paul thank you as always a high quality post with substance. I will research SEA but thanks for giving a good starting point.

It'll be interesting to see what the Placees will do now. Whether they'll hold (and I think they will hold) will tell us what kind of investor they are.

From last week's RNS:

Admission and Total Voting Rights

Application has been made to the London Stock Exchange for admission of the 315,192,308 new Ordinary Shares, comprising the Placing Shares, Subscription Shares and Adviser Shares to trading on AIM ("Admission"). It is expected that Admission will become effective and dealings in the Placing Shares, Subscription Shares, and Advisor Shares will commence on AIM at 8.00 a.m. on or around 27 January 2026 ("Admission").

The Placing Shares, Subscription Shares, and Adviser Shares will be issued fully paid and will rank pari passu in all respects with the Company's existing Ordinary Shares.

Following Admission, the total number of Ordinary Shares in the capital of the Company in issue will be 2,684,490,257 with voting rights.

I copy+paste from my yesterday's post:

"this will go to high 2s in the next week or two, possibly low 3s even"

I think we'll stop there for a breather and allow the profit-taking, then plateau in the mid-3s until heavier than usual buying starts and signals the positive MRE is near.

Just a quick note to encourage fellow posters to drop the occasional share tip here.

I made a very good return on my SML investment, which was on the back of a tip on this board back in November (was it you Silverfoil?). Apologies I can't remember and the interface here doesn't let me search.. But thank you!!

On the flip side, Borders has been mentioned here incessantly, and I looked and decided it wasn't for me.

WTE and ECO: my SIPP broker wouldn't allow so I had to pass..

The SP is being kept under 75p. So obvious now... The why we can never know of course. But safe to say for short-term traders under 70p this is a buy to sell at 75p.

Gift at this price, yes Mazerunner I can't agree more. Last week's raise confirms something to me: I as an individual investor, a mere mortal, may be sentimental in my investment decisions, but there is at least one institutional who is on the same boat now. Hence IMO the jump in SP *now* and the start of a trend: this will go to high 2s in the next week or two, possibly low 3s even... And will likely double in value from there, upon a positive MRE and the re-rating. 5-6p very much on the cards by end-Q1 if that MRE is good, which all indications so far say yes.

Irrelevant. Please don't reheat this subject over and over again. There's no Argentina in the mix for SeaLion so long as the partnership is what it is now.

Refer to my post here titled "good trading update"

The updated Mineral Resource Estimate (expected by the end of Q1 2026) must come in to confirm a) more Quantity, b) Higher-confidence of resource category than the 2019 MRE. Until then, all this is just expectations and fair price is 1.9...

Strategic Minerals today announces it has raised £4m to further advance its Redmoor tungsten (copper-tin) project in Cornwall. It raised the £4m at 1.3p, issuing 308m shares in an oversubscribed placing. The money raised, along with existing funds, cash from the ongoing production of magnetite in the USA and the sale of the Leigh Creek copper project in Australia, will be used to advance the Prefeasibility study at Redmoor. A 16km drilling programme is planned and a drill rig already reserved. We leave our fair value unchanged today at 1.9p/sh and are waiting for the resource and economic study update to reassess our forecasts. The study into Redmoor is well-timed and set against the extraordinary price of tungsten, which is currently at c.$1,000/t Spot APT according to trade sources – and well above the $400/t we used in our DCF (3.July 2025).

One of the highest tungsten projects in the world. The Redmoor project resource is based around a Sheeted Vein System (SVS) which is a zone of numerous closely-spaced sub-parallel narrow mineralised quartz-veins containing coarse-grained wolframite (iron-manganese tungstate), cassiterite (tin oxide) and chalcopyrite (copper sulphide). The current resource is 11.7Mt grading 0.56% tungsten (WO3) with important tin and copper (and potentially silver) credits. From this resource a scoping study (RNS 6.10.2020) was published using 7.2Mt of the resource over a twelve year mine life at a production rate of 600kt/yr using underground mining methods and a standard processing flow sheet to produce separate tungsten, tin and copper concentrates. We used the production profile and with some of our own assumptions created a DCF which returned an NPV10 of $165m – using a tungsten price of $400/t APT and an initial capital cost of $120m. We included only 25% of this NAV in our fair value for project stage to arrive at a fair value for Redmoor of 1.6p/sh.

We see numerous upsides. If all things are equal from our DCF (3.7.2025) but we include the current price of c.$800/t APT in our model then the 25% of NAV for the Redmoor project rises to 4.2p/sh from 1.6p/sh. There is also the potential for us to supplement our DCF from a larger resource and a higher production rate and reduce our risk rating on updated information to update our fair value. Given the potential of the project it seems undervalued on a variety of metrics. There are many new tungsten projects being discussed in the junior exploration world, but none have the definition of such a high-grade defined resource as Redmoor has. Redmoor continues to deliver on its promise and we have no doubt the remaining six drill holes from the 2025 drilling programme will continue to show elevated, high-grade tungsten assays.

Zeus View: Good funding news today which provides certainty that the next stage of study into the Redmoor project can be completed to move the project rapidly along the development pipeline. We maintain our fair value this morning at 1.9p

Soo unexpected and so well-played, kudos SML board!

My first reaction was shoot I need to immediately sell something and raise funds to top-up my SML holdings! Will do just that now but it will be very difficult to get in sub-1.50p. Nice problem to have!!

Whether it's dictatorial behaviour has absolutely no bearing on the outcomes. Your feelings may be hurt sunshine, but the facts on the ground are very different. Europe have no cards. Trump has the cards. China does, Russia does, Turkey does. This rather outdated ivory-tower view that Europe still has influence on the world order, and the delusional thinking that it is able to propose something and enforce it has already collapsed. You must be blind to not see it. You will soon see more evidence first-hand. Until then keep your head buried in the sand.

US have sorted Venezuela (have you even read the reports that the Venezuelan forces couldn't even fire a single shot? I guess not. Because it wasn't in the MSM). They are in the process of taking Greenland, in fact Denmark will have to offer it to them. Then they will secure 100% control of the Panama canal. Those who believe otherwise must also think all of the world history of power struggles between emperors, kings, and nations was just stories in books and never happened in real life. Fantastic thinking. See how far that'll take you.

Oh and please make your investment decisions on that basis. Trump today ridiculed windfarms, you should invest in Orsted fantastic green energy co.

1.25-1.36 This is cheap.

I'm holding 9.4m at 1.24p average atm. If this goes below that average I'm definitely adding.

The OM case came up during the peak of the globalist world order, where clashing with their central policy of de-industrialisation (and its slogan net-zero) was unthinkable. For a heavily indebted and heavily ECB-reliant Italian government opposing Rockhopper's case was a political necessity.

Today is a critical day. Watch Davos and how the US will challenge the WEF loons.

The developing new world order is one of drill baby drill. Italy would be wise to read the room.

Did a mini-research on OM arbitration:

In the re-submission of the Ombrina Mare (OM) arbitration, Rockhopper is essentially seeking a "do-over" on the merits of the case. Because the original €190 million award was annulled on a procedural technicality (related to the composition of the tribunal) rather than the facts of the case, the company is aiming to re-establish Italy’s liability and secure a new financial award.

What is left to monetise?

You are right to ask what's left after the insurance payout. The monetization structure is now a multi-party arrangement:

Reimbursing the Insurers: Under the terms of the insurance agreement, if Rockhopper wins a new award, the first portion of that recovery will be used to reimburse the insurers for the €31 million they already paid out.

The Shareholder "Upside": Any recovery above the costs and the insurance reimbursement belongs to Rockhopper. Given the original award was €190m plus nearly a decade of interest (EURIBOR + 4%), the "gap" between the €31m already received and the potential total award is still over €150 million.

Cost-Free Pursuit: Crucially, Rockhopper is not paying for this second legal battle out of its own pocket. The specialist litigation funder continues to bear the legal costs of the re-submission. For Rockhopper, this is a "free carry" on a potential nine-figure windfall.

Up to here it's the AI. Now, my view (open letter to RKH management btw, if you're ever reading this board, I suspect you do):

Given my pal Donald's upending the rotten "rules based" world order, and his consistent reference to energy security and oil price while doing that, I think the RKH Board should consider two things:

1) Play for time. The longer you drag this, the more time Donald has to establish the new order.

2) Be bold. The ICIDs of this world will either fall in line or cease to exist. By bringing an OIL-related claim in THIS environment, you have the upper hand. If you don't think so it's because you can't read geopolitics.

Add Italy (Meloni) in the mix. Unless the lefties come to power (extremely unlikely), how will Meloni look Trump in the face and say yeah scr*w ECT. She won't, if you have done the right PR by then.

Bottomline I believe Italy should offer to settle before RKH wins a second award with the new submission.

Decolady, I was curious.. What did you do in the end?

This was obviously timed to support the SP on the day the OO shares came to market.

We need one more like this, ideally from a new broker and ideally a generalist house as opposed to energy-niche coverage we've had to date...

Valuation target price and rating

We adjust our risked NPV12.5 based target price to reflect: 1) the recent equity raises and additional shares; 2) transition to 1/1/26 DCF date (previously 1/1/25); 3) full derisking of the financial component of our Sea Lion project risk (from 85% chance of success), though we keep our 90% CoS project delivery risk. Taken together we increase our target price to 113p (from 90p) and raise our rating to BUY (from Speculative BUY). We note that our unrisked valuation is 136p/share, effectively double the current share price.

Market Data 52-Week Range (p) : Avg Daily Vol (M) : Market Cap (£M) : Shares Out. (M) : 32 - 93 639.4 597.2 860.5 Net Debt (Cash) : Core NAV 10 (p) : Core P&D NAV 10 (p) : Central NAV 10 (p) : (175.1) 14.5 166.0 166.0 Total NAV 10 (p) : Core NAV 12.5 (p) : Core P&D NAV 12.5 (p) : Central NAV 12.5 (p) : 166.0 14.5 120.7 120.7 Total NAV 12.5 (p) : Core NAV 15 (p) : Core P&D NAV 15 (p) : Central NAV 15 (p) : 120.7 14.5 89.2 89.2 Total NAV 15 (p) : FYE Dec 89.2

Buy from Speculative Buy Target Price 113p from 90p | 21 January 2026

Pedal to the metal at Sea Lion

Canaccord Genuity view

The open offer to shareholders has now completed, raising c.$9m (at 53p) to complement the $140m placing (at the same price) announced in July 2025. As a result, and following the Sea Lion (Navitas 65%, operator; Rockhopper 35%) development project FID and financial close, Rockhopper is fully financed for the project to beyond anticipated first oil. It has been 15 years since the first discovery well at Sea Lion was drilled, and a tortuous path to get to this stage. But following Navitas' entry into the Sea Lion area licences in 2022 there has been renewed impetus and energy behind the project. That culminated in the late 2025 confirmation of gross $1bn project finance loan to sit alongside Navitas' own financial resources and Rockhopper's considerably strengthened balance sheet enabling Sea Lion project sanction. A fast-track development programme is now underway targeting first oil in early 2028. We raise our target price to 113p (from 90p) and our rating to BUY (from Speculative BUY).

Rockhopper balance sheet => enough for Sea Lion and other commitments

Over the past six months Rockhopper has added c.$180m cash (total combined placing and open offer $149m raised at 53p; Ombrina Mare arbitration insurance €31m pre-tax) allowing both Navitas and Rockhopper to green-light the Sea Lion development. That balance sheet strength sits alongside the gross $1bn Sea Lion project finance loan (net to Rockhopper $350m) and Navitas' partial loan of Rockhopper's Sea Lion development commitments. Taken together, we believe that Rockhopper is fully funded to deliver first oil with no further financing required. In addition, we expect Rockhopper's balance sheet to fully support ongoing G&A and other commitments. As an additional buffer, the recent equity raises include c.50m Rockhopper warrants priced at 80p (total c.$53m). Exercise of those warrants would significantly bolster the company's financial resources in the event of potential cost or timetable overruns.

Sea Lion development => underway, Navitas targeting first oil Q1 28

The Sea Lion partners are moving at pace into development activities. That speed is necessary to achieve Navitas' first oil target of Q1 28. The company has an excellent track record offshore US at the Shenandoah field providing significant project delivery reassurance. However, we are more cautious on the timetable. As the first oil development project in the Falkland Islands we currently assume a three-year development period with first oil at the start of 2029. Our projections show that Rockhopper has the financial strength to withstand that later production start date, even without the need for exercise of any warrants. [contd]