Member Info for BB_hoppa

It's very simple imo,

- allocate 50% of your available funds and buy today (even though the 66p ship has sailed by now)

- with the other 50% buy on the 21st

for my part I don't believe "the price will go down when the new shares start trading on 21st" since it's only ~13m shares we're talking about and I don't see how everyone will rush to offload all of it, but that's me.

Just added 400k at 1.40.

Any short-term SP weakness from here to MRE is an opportunity.

Oh and the broker consensus (at 100p) is waayy off. This is the one consolation when I admit I have been so wrong about the short-term SP.

In the past 13 months I have observed serious buyers only on 4 occasions:

1) The period from end-nov-2024 to 31 july 2025 (the general SP rally)

2) The 3-5 September 2025 spike to 91p (an expensive buy-in by an institutional for sure)

3) The 19m whale trade on 21 oct 2025 (this was almost certainly initiated as a sell but there was a buyer too of course)

4) 22nd Dec recovery to 78p (same as September but much less expensive. I suspect it were the same guys)

Other than the above, there has been no new money entering the market in my opinion. I can't think any reason other than a lack of interest by the generalist investor. The misguided/naive adoption of ESG by UK mutual funds must be playing a big role here. Even then, the complete lack of PR effort by the RKH board is telling. I don't know what else to say without going into conspiracy theories about takeover etc.

Thanks BD I stand corrected, one newspaper has covered it.

Sorry to see you go AlmaCogan. I share your views about control and have stated here several times recently that I think RKH has zero chance of seeing first oil and will definitely be taken out. I hoped to keep my RKH shares forever and collect the divvies but my views have changed 100% on that when I realised the post-FID media blackout. We have seen ZERO, I repeat, ZERO articles in the MSM. Take the FT as an example. I subscribe to the digital edition and can run historical searches. A search just now shows me RKH and SeaLion were reported on a regular basis up until Jan 2020, after which there's a hard stop. No reporting since Navitas got involved. That, my friends, is statecraft.

Why am I still staying in? Like you say, there's still a takeover upside when they'll make us the offer. But that too, they are driving down by pushing the SP lower. Sad to watch...

Good post BrightSpot, the only part I differ is I think the new name (be it a 3rd partner or a full taker over of RKHs shares,) will surface in the next months. British or American. If there were such a bet I’d take it I’m that certain.

Kudos Sam and the Board for securing the placement and the OO which kept us in the game. Very different to the other license holders in the area.. Eventually we too will be taken out but they have to pay us properly for that.

Nothing has changed. The co is on the right track. The game-changer everyone expects is the updated Mineral Resource Estimate for Redmoor, which is expected by the end of Q1 2026. The indications we have seen in 2025 point to a goof *Quality* number. What's unknown is the *Quantity*.

Hopefully the Quantity estimates also carry a high level of confidence that places Redmoor high in terms of mineral reserve classification, which would qualify Redmoor as a "proven reserve".

In terms of SP, the key is the comparison of the impending MRE with the Feb.2019 MRE. The new MRE will be judged against:

1) Tonnage Increase: Has the total 11.7 Mt increased? Recent drilling has focused on extending the resource at depth and along strike, which strongly suggests SML is aiming for a larger total tonnage.

2) Grade Improvement: Has the average grade of 1.17% SnEq increased? SML has reported "exceptional" high-grade intercepts in their recent drilling, which points toward a possible increase in the overall average grade.

3) Confidence Upgrade (The Most Important Factor): The entire 11.7 Mt is currently in the lowest-confidence category, Inferred Resource. The primary goal of the recent drilling campaign is likely to convert a significant portion of this tonnage into the higher-confidence **Indicated** Resource category.

EG777 well spotted. it'll be interesting to see if Noked will also trim/offload its 9.32% stake in RKH.

Nastynick, extremely cool move, putting your tourism money where your investment is, keeping the business in the family ;) Enjoy every minute mate!

Ok divi back to filtered...

Sorry I posted too many times today but forgot to add: I'm not one of the politically careful DYOR posters. I don't care if others are influenced by what I write and take positions either way. We're all adults responsible of our own (investment) decisions. I try to make my honest contribution because I read from others here and feel morally obliged to reciprocate. That said, I reiterate I DON'T want to see RKH be taken over. I believe in the project, have been proven right to invest, made a multiple of my investment to date, and would like to stay and collect the divvies. Finally, my life experience tells me it can't be that good a run. I hope it will be.

Evidently there is substantial and NEW institutional interest, which was oblivious to RKH's existence 5 years ago when we were partnering with PMO. They didn't come because they suddenly thought RKH and SeaLion are cool. They came because they were invited by someone credible to them.

It doesn't take too much imagination to speculate there will be other such interest down the road. I still think there will be a British (and we are likely not it) or American element to this. Taking 100% of the entire risk spectrum is not the Israeli way to do business in my experience.

Almost certainly yes

About 23% of the company. All Israeli. Unclear of course what's held in client accounts at the likes of Aberdeen, HL and SRM that's still institutional money and does not trigger the 3% rule.

Regulars here would have read from me that i think a takeover is extremely likely. This is why I think so.

Rank Shareholder % of Share Capital Date of Notification Notes

1. Noked Capital 9.32% Dec 2025 Formally notified.

2. Aedos Advisers 6.09% Dec 2025 Formally notified. (Associated with SRM)

3. Exodus Management Israel Ltd 5.15% Jan 2026 NEWLY NOTIFIED. Crossed the 5% threshold on December 31, 2025.

4. ION Fund Management 3.90% Dec 2025 Formally notified.

Divi, devastated this morning the SP held well? Ahah... It's becoming an obsession.. Not good for anyone's wallet...

Congrats everyone, Rockhopper is now worth £610m and the SP is holding up extremely well given the not so small dilution. I think it's safe to say the SP this morning draws a line under the months-long discussion whether the FID and the Placement and the OO were priced-in. Yes, yes, and yes.

Although I personally would like to see a 85p there, the market thinks differently. It always does. Having said that, I have little doubt we'll quickly climb there once the waters have calmed down post placement and OO. Give it a couple of weeks.

Now that the corporate tidying up is behind us, we can look at the events on the horizon:

- A broker re-rating likely in the form of new coverage by mid-market and Investment Banks like Deutsche, Investec etc.

- News of the FPSO heading to the Falklands,

- News of other major contracts signed,

- Rumours about new partners or takeovers,

Welcome to the fun part of the Rockhopper journey!

Thanks JEBR.

I estimate we will be taken out by Q3, wild guess at 140-150p (in the OM 91p was paid pre-FID, current AC is 100p).

Good one Mirasol 😅