Member Info for BB_hoppa

🤦🏻‍♂️Putin “has always been clear” wants Eastern Europe….

Agh! Spare me! This is what happens when you get your “news” from the MSM and believe you know stuff.

Re the other Mao rubbish: America (Trump) is in the process of rehabilitating its relation with Russia. They may even become a block in the near future, if Europeans can rid themselves of their puppet regimes. This is precisely why the UK and the EU governments (both long-controlled by external forces) desperately want the cousin to cousin war in Ukraine to continue.

Mirasol, yeah. The Russian pay is so good I throw in the extra pro-bono stuff on obscure stock BBs…

I’m surprised how little discussion this topic has seen today tbh. The Venezuela move by Trump is massive and imo will mark the start of a new era in int’l relations with huge implications for oil security and price. Have bern reading oil analysts’ posts all day. In summary there are two camps:

1) quick transition and more oil supply. This has two sub-camps: more oil quickly and more oil only in time.

2) messy transition and volatile market, and as an extension to this scenario: spillover of instability into other oil regions.

Personally I subscribe to this doomsday scenario. We are heading into war. Not immediately, but definitely in the next 3-5 years. The US has just made the second move (after Russia on Ukraine). China n Taiwan is a question of when. Then US on Panama and so on.

Oil, gold and USD, the three kings are back!

I posted earlier to say I predict a takeover of RKH within 2026 but seems I missed the oil price question so I’m reposting

1) n/a

2) n/a

3) oil $90

Alma you put the question

“”What happens on Monday? Will this extra ~200M share dilution have no effect? You cannot magic up a 28% increase with nothing happening surely?””

Assume a scenario whereby it’s 8:01am Monday and nobody traded anything yet. That would imply we are worth: #of shares in circulation x 72p = £594m mcap.

If the new shares are sold into the OM they will be offered at 72p. If there are enough buyers at 72p the mcap would stay st £594m. So it comes down to two things;

1) will the placees offload? Personally I doubt it having seen last Friday’s rns.

2) market appetite for getting on board RKH right now. Again personally I think there will be increased appetite now with oil becoming once again a top geopolitical factor. The worls is going to war. Like all strategic resources oil will be key to control.

1) 0

2) 0

3) 0

We will be taken out by Q3, wild guess at 140-150p (in the OM 91p was paid pre-FID, current AC is 100p).

BB

Here is the English translation of the article:

Falkland Islands - Argentina Grateful That Israel Recognized the Sovereignty Dispute Following the Advance of the Sea Lion Oil Project

Falkland Islands: The Argentine Foreign Ministry valued the fact that Israel's Foreign Minister, Gideon Sa'ar, explicitly recognized the sovereignty dispute between Argentina and the United Kingdom. Israel noted that this is an initiative by a private company (Navitas) with no state involvement, although it admitted the discomfort generated and called for a resolution through dialogue.

The background is Sea Lion, an "offshore" field north of the archipelago: the Rockhopper (35%) – Navitas (65%) consortium has already made the Final Investment Decision (FID) to proceed with the development. The plan includes two phases (approx. 320 MMboe recoverable) and a total estimated investment of US$ 2.2 billion, with first production scheduled for 2028 and a peak of 50,000 barrels/day in Phase 1.

The project, located 220 km north of the Falkland Islands, involves drilling 23 wells and producing more than 300 million barrels of oil over 30 years.

In the Falkland Islands, a public statement by Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar introduced an unusual nuance to the discussion on hydrocarbons in the South Atlantic: he acknowledged that the activities announced by an Israeli-capital firm are planned for an area whose sovereignty is disputed between Argentina and the United Kingdom, and he expressed that Israel hopes the controversy will be resolved "through dialogue" and peaceful means.

The exchange was triggered after an Argentine diplomatic presentation linked to the progress of the Sea Lion project, promoted by the consortium made up of the British Rockhopper Exploration and Navitas Petroleum (through its operational structure for the project). In his response, Sa'ar clarified that it is a private company and that the Israeli government is not involved in the operation, although he regretted the discomfort in Buenos Aires.

On the Argentine side, Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno highlighted the recognition of the existence of the dispute and reiterated the official position: as long as the controversy remains open, companies — "of any nationality" — should refrain from unilaterally proceeding with exploration or exploitation of resources in the area.

I read that as a positive. Israel is behind Navitas (obviously) and Argentina signals they want a small cut that’s it. Beat oart is, this forces the UK government’s hand and locks them in a support position behind RKH.

I have so far refrained from entertaining Divi's spamming. But I'll do an exception here.

Divi, you say "I think the SP rot will continue in the whole 2026 . Have no wish to be ahead of myself, but will be buying in drips and in the range of 55p-65p"

Mate, please enlighten me why you think the SP will go down. Maybe there's a trading case there and I can profit from it by shorting the share from here? Presumably, you think that despite FID, the Financial Close, the completion of the Placement and the OO, announcement by Navitas that the major contracts are in place, and by the FIG that gov't approvals (the FDP, the CP of the EC) are in place and the tax settlement is agreed, and despite all analyst coverage giving targets of 100p+................ YOU see something different there. PLEASE share!

XKR2022, your theory, if applied to the very specific window of 8:45am (the 79p peak) on 23rd Dec* to today, the total volume of 10.5m would mean we are very close to the end of the OO profit-taking. The OO consists of 13,188,036 new shares. Not insignificant, but not a huge number either. For reference, the volume since 10/12 is 73.5 million shares.

(*) I took 23rd December as the starting point for my calculation because from 11:30am on 19/12 to 8:30am on the 23rd the SP went UP steeply from 68p to 79p - clearly an II buy phase.

I can't explain away the media curfew on RKH with seasonality. I'm pretty sure geopolitical considerations play a role. If I were to guess I'd say it's Navitas wanting to be quiet about the project, for obvious reasons. I also asked Grok. Here's the feedback:

Q: Rockhopper exploration recently announced FID for SeaLion and the financial close. I don’t see much in the MSM. Why?

A:

Limited Mainstream Media Coverage

Mainstream media (MSM) outlets like BBC, Reuters, The Guardian, NYT, and CNN show little to no recent coverage of these announcements. Searches for related terms yield mostly older articles from 2010–2015 (e.g., initial discovery hype or past partnerships) or unrelated results.

Coverage has primarily appeared in:

* Specialized energy/oil trade publications (e.g., World Oil, Offshore Energy, Energy Voice, Argus Media, OilPrice.com)

* Financial/investor sites (e.g., Proactive Investors, Investing.com, LSE announcements)

* Regional or niche outlets

Reasons for Limited Coverage

Several factors explain the limited MSM attention:

1) Recency and Holiday Timing — The financial close occurred just yesterday (December 22, 2025), and the FID was only two weeks ago. With the current date being December 23 and the holiday season underway, news cycles slow down, delaying broader pickup.

2) Project Scale and Global Context — While significant for the Falklands (marking their first commercial oil production), Sea Lion is a mid-sized development (~170–320 million barrels recoverable in early phases, out of ~900 million total resources). It pales compared to major global projects (e.g., in Guyana, Brazil, or the North Sea). In a crowded energy news landscape—dominated by OPEC decisions, price volatility, renewables transitions, and geopolitics elsewhere—it lacks the scale for front-page treatment.

3) Political Sensitivity and Sovereignty Dispute — The project lies in waters claimed by both the UK (administering the Falklands) and Argentina (calling them the Malvinas). Argentina has strongly rejected the FID and financial close as "unilateral and illegal," citing UN resolutions urging no changes to the status quo during sovereignty talks. Major Western MSM outlets often tread carefully on Falklands-related stories to avoid escalating diplomatic tensions or appearing biased, especially given the 1982 war's legacy. This contrasts with robust coverage in industry media, which focuses on technical/commercial aspects.

4) Long History of Delays — Sea Lion has faced repeated postponements since its 2010 discovery (e.g., missed FIDs in prior years due to costs, partner exits like Harbour Energy in 2021, and financing hurdles). This has bred skepticism, reducing novelty for general audiences.

In summary, the news is substantive within the oil sector but hasn't broken through to broad MSM yet due to timing, relative scale, and the thorny geopolitical backdrop. If production ramps up successfully or tensions flare furt

Added another 1m at 1.35 now. Very pleased as I don’t think these SP will not stay at this level when the next drilling update is in. The exercise of LC call option has added value - we can’t ignore that and go to 1.10s again.

Thanks Paul. I managed to squeeze two rounds of nice topups at 70.40 and 70.20. Extremely pleased. Also as I wrote in another thread earlier today - the deluge of 53p shares to pull us down proves to be a dud. Those II shares are not for this market.

"Some of them might get sold, but then again they might not"

Yes, Paul. And I'd add those shares have been issued to institutional investors / banks, who are extremely unlikely to offload piecemeal in the open market. They'd sell privately and may well have sold in the interim (e.g. the famous 21/10 sale of 19m shares may be one).

In other words, the assertion that these 53p shares will flood the market and crash the SP are inaccurate.

Doesn't look like this will go back to 1-1.10 range so I caved :) and added 1m at 1.44 just now

"Oil will be around for many more years than is thought."

Rooky, that may even be an understatement... There never was a guarantee that tech would always progress and translate to efficiency gains. In the commercial application of tech there are many examples of "optimal" trumping "ideal". Look at digital TV broadcasting (576i standard 720x576), look at the state of mobile networks in the UK (no reception outside major city centres). In the case of the combustion engine, it certainly looks like the disrupter is not EV (sales plateaued and reversing) but something else, far in the future.. This is why I intend to stay invested in RKH as long as I live.

Negative comments - are you joking? The Board has turned zero to £1m. You will soon see how the SP will adjust upwards!

"All key contracts in connection with Phase 1 of the Sea Lion Project have now been negotiated and entered into by the operator Navitas Petroleum and Development Limited ("Navitas"). [....] taking into account the proceeds of the Placing, the Company is fully funded for its equity portion of Phase 1 of the Sea Lion Project."

Beautiful. We're doing this!!

Would RKH release an RNS now? Could it be argued the financial close was a ball strictly in Navitas’ court?

Mainstream media. Bbc the Times CNN etc

Massive news💥

Now. If the MSM still doesn’t cover SeaLion, what does it say about:

1) the MSM

2) more importantly, who stops coverage and why?

BB

Looked at buying 1m was quoted 1.435 - unattractive for me at that level. On the other hand I'm happy my existing holding is well in the money!