Seascape Energy Share Price (SEA)

Especially given they stepped back in 2016-17. But now showing confidence by getting back in.

Thank you for that, Sircadian. It helps a lot.

I just put this into Gemini and got the following takeaway comment:

"When a conservative, deep-pocketed major like INPEX completes a farm-in, assumes operatorship, and agrees to 100% carry Seascape's financial share through a multi-million-dollar drilling campaign, it acts as a massive corporate stamp of approval. They aren't risking that kind of capital for a minor prize—they are doing it because they believe Kertang is a legitimate basin-opening asset that can feed regional LNG demand for decades."

What an amazing post. Thank you for putting that together. I need to find some spare cash!

I'm a geoscientist in an O&G company who deals with geological CoS daily. The overall figure can be highly skewed depending on how ERCE calculated it, but it's normally something like the likelihood of 5 key components:

Source rock (quality & maturity) x charge/migration x reservoir x trap x seal

So for example, if we were pretty confident about all factors (e.g., 0.8), the overall total CoS would be 0.33 (33%). So even a high confidence in all components still produces a typically conservative overall CoS%. It's sometimes called the "Swiss Cheese" Model, where all elements have to allign for success, but just one failed component results in a bust.

On average, industry CoS is around 23-27% (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/chapter/bookseries/abs/pii/S0928893700800089), but it varies significantly depending on how well explored the basin/play is. In general:

Frontier Areas (Wildcats): 10% – 15%

Established Plays (Near-field/Step-out): 30% – 40%

Appraisal/Development Wells: > 50%

Kertang is classified as a frontier wildcat, but it has clear DHIs (direct hydrocarbon indicators) such as seismic (amplitude anomolies, AVO evidence) and seafloor sampling above the structure (low CO2, dry gas). ERCE also subdivided the CoS% by reservoir:

Cycle I = 22%

Cycle II/III = 16%

Cycle V/VII AA1 = 24%

Cycle V/VII AA2 = 27%

So for a frontier well, these are in fact relatively high values. Of course ERCE will have their own biases and limitations (like all subjective interpretations), but they are respected within the industry.

Another factor is the clear brightening in the seismic indicating leaking of gas above the structure. At first glance you may assume that's bad news ("the seal is broken"), but in reality all seals will leak if the capillary entry pressure from the HC column is high enough. Seals tend to act as hydraulic pumps, so will open to release pressure and then seal again. The evidence of a gas cloud above the structure is likely evidence of a very large gas column, and therefore direct proof of a significant and prolific source rock - i.e., more charge than the structure can hold. As has been shown by other analogue discoveries offshore Sarawak, these all also have gas leakage above the structure but contain multi-TCF gas accumulations at the reservoir level(s).

So is Kertang guaranteed to be successful? Of course not. But in my experience, this looks about as good as it gets pre-drill. There will of course be surprises as the bit goes down (perhaps positive, perhaps negative), but that's the nature of exploring. The deep-water and distance to production infrastructure means the commercial viability is also a risk (it needs to be big to justify development), but Inpex picking the license back up and committing to drill a $100mill+ well obviously shows they believe it's worth it.

Comparing to the three sea always refer to.

Malaysia Deepwater Geological CoS (Selected Wells)

• Kertang — Sarawak deepwater

Geological CoS: ~20%

Frontier deepwater MMU‑bounded structure, no offset wells, HPHT, gas cloud supportive. Exactly standard for a giant frontier wildcat.

• Kasawari — Sarawak

Geological CoS: ~25–30%

Not frontier. Strong seismic support, proven carbonate trend, good analogues. High CoS and now a major producing gas field.

• Lang Lebah — Sarawak (SK410B)

Geological CoS: ~20–25%

Strong amplitude anomalies and proven reservoir trend. High‑impact clastic gas discovery.

• Majorama — Sabah deepwater

Geological CoS: ~15–20%

Frontier deepwater HPHT clastics, limited well control. Typical early‑stage wildcat CoS.