Member Info for Sircadian

Https://x.com/seascapeenergy/status/2052665447615533188?s=46

From Stifel:

Resumption of coverage; Pivotal year ahead

Summary

- We are resuming coverage of Seascape following a period of restriction tied to the company’s recent fundraise.

- 2026 is set to be a pivotal year for Seascape. It has already established an enviable portfolio of developments and high impact exploration, however, the coming months could be transformative as it progresses towards FID at both DEWA & Temaris, starting the countdown to first gas. In the background, the huge Kertang prospect is also coming into the investment horizon, which should generate additional interest in the story.

- Our Total NAV stands at 142p/sh and we increase our target price to 140p/sh.

As Zebbo mentioned, Nick Ingrassia and the team are all in KL at the mo, with a photo of them as Inpex. Presumably (hopefully...) finalising the Kertang well location and rig...

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/?highlightedUpdateUrn=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7455575386991665152&highlightedUpdateType=SHARED_BY_YOUR_NETWORK&origin=inapp&showCommentBox=true

If this is anything like the past when the board has picked up shares, expect news to drop in the next day or two...

Agreed. Watching UPL rocket (based on nothing, except the daily RNS about what they had for breakfast) whilst SEA bleeds SP is just baffling. Time will tell, but the smart money is in patience and I'm happy to hold and continue to buy the dip here whenever I can.

Always remind myself of Warren Buffett: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient"

Exactly - it all seems to have no substance. I suspect it'll come down just as fast when nothing happens

Completely agree hedgeman. I also have the same concerns as deeko, but I guess that's only natural when us longterm holders truly see the potential of SEA and don't want to opportunity to be pulled from under us.

All these big, round number sells dripping through is very frustrating, and reminds me of what happened in the Spring before the share price tripled (ha!), with any uptick immediately killed. Hopefully we find out who is behind them soon through a TR-1 and good riddance

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/seascape-seeks-partner-for-potential-1-tcf-malaysia-gas-hub/2-1-1898223

Unfortunately it's behind a pay wall, but suspect it's similar content to the recent presentation

It's been an interesting couple weeks since the London presentation. I've seen on other forums people saying it was "disasterous" and that "they've said nothing will happen for a year", but I think they have their own agenda. My own opinion is that I would rather a small company like Seascape consolidate these fantastic assets rather than spread (and spend) themselves too thinly.

I also think there are some short term catalysts: 1) the clear intention to farm-out Temaris could happen at any time (for cash? production deal elsewhere?); 2) confirmation of Kertang rig and drill date (who knows where that will slot into Inpex's drill program); 3) they have obviously been applying for other acreage

As disheartening as it is to see the short-term dip, I still firmly beleive this will be a blip in the baseline of the SP in 2-3 years, so for those patient holders this is a case of just trying not to overthink this and be patient. It's also a great time to top up. We have seen how quickly this jumps with relatively little news.

Hopefully the 135k sell after hours yesterday is the end of their dump

Great stuff, thanks Offwork. That really highlights the risk vs. reward aspect, and goes to show that a 20% CoS for Kertang is comparable to these other beasts pre-drill. From my experience, most prospects I’ve worked on in frontier areas/plays inevitably end up with a CoS of 15-30% (e.g., Orange Basin).

Commerciality is the next hurdle of course. In the Sarawak Basin, 2008-14 saw Technical Success Rate (TSR) at 72% and Commercial Success Rate (CSR) at 42%; from 2015 this dropped to TSR of 50% and CSR of 18% as smaller ILX prospects dominated, which in part has led to the plethora of subcommercial, undeveloped discoveries shown in today’s presentation. Kertang’s size and good quality (dry, CO2-poor) gas (as proved by seafloor sampling above the prospect) is it’s big advantage here, where even if 1 of the 4 reservoir intervals was dry may still make commercial sense.

Anyway, for those interested in this morning’s presentation it’s now on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRDOA251LNE

As a geologist, seeing some of the data today has only reassured me of what a gem this company and assets are, and what the potential here is. Before things were only shown cautiously, understandably keeping cards close to their chest, but it's pretty obvious they are now putting Temaris firmly in the shop window for all to see and substantiating some of the additional potential with data.

The additional prospectivity in the Temaris license is very impressive, and comparable to SEA's 10% share of Kertang's 9 TCF (if it comes in). With cumulative resources of upto 1 TCF in shallow water, talk of a new "gas hub" will be tempting for many companies to farm-in to I think. The amount of data is also impressive (to Petronas' credit).

The seismic comparison of Kertang to the Kasawari (6 TCF), Lang Lebah (5 TCF) and Marjoram (2TCF) discoveries is the smoking gun here. I wonder what their pre-drill Chance of Success was, given the CPR mean CoS is 20% for Kertang? TOTAL (one of the world's best deep water explorers) have now bought all available acreage around 2A, which again indicates validates the huge potential of not only Kertang, but all the additional prospects in 2A.

Personally I am delighted to have my shares in SEA and to sit back and watch this all play out

Good luck on your "research mission"!

I think it's more than likely - they've also gone to the expense of flying members to London to be together for the recording, so they're taking it seriously. Nice to be looking forward to a Monday!

Nick Ingrassia has posted on LinkedIn a very positive message with photos of the whole team in KL:

"I was blown away with how much progress on all aspects of the project has been made in our first 90-days as operator! Huge range of interesting presentations covering all aspects of the project including; subsurface, facilities, export and commercial aspects.

The team is in full agreement that we need to design the project for success - which means ensuring that the facilities can be quickly (and significantly!) upsized in the event of exploration success which we think could easily 2-3x the existing discovered gas resources.

For me, the best part of the week was bringing the entire team together to make sure everyone at Seascape has a base understanding of the varied aspects of the Temaris project and how their own areas fit into a bigger picture and can contribute to success."

As an aside, I do think the communication from the senior leadership in the form of Investor Meetings and social media is well judged - not too much, not too little

Not the big announcement(s) we're waiting for, but nice to see SEA awarded "Rising Star" upstream award last night at the APAC Energy Capital Assembly in Singapore (see Pierre Eliet's post below). The whole team seems to be there, and suggests just solidifies the growing recognition and momentum for the company. I'm excited to see where we'll be in the next 12-24 months.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/pierrepatrickeliet_apac25-activity-7338354291897679873-Lx-6?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=member_desktop_web&rcm=ACoAAAhmlPgB5_6iqlkGKpdxnG2d8XgFoo86HeM

Seascape posted on LinkedIn this morning about Stifel changing their rating to Buy, with a PT of 80p/sh and target price of 61p/sh: https://www.linkedin.com/company/seascape-energy/posts/

“Summary

- We are resuming coverage of Seascape following a period of restriction tied to the company’s recent fundraise.

- Seascape’s transformation over the last six months has been remarkable, in our view; whilst the exploration successes in Norway were notable the business now finds itself in a more attractive region for a company with its profile, owning a development asset, plus a carried interest in the very high-impact Kertang prospect. The balance sheet has been repaired too with a $10 million completion fee due, which should be sufficient to cover expenses for a number of years.

- Our Core + Contingent NAV stands at 61p/sh; We set our target price at a small presium to this in order to reflect some risked value from Kertang. We reinstate our Buy rating.”

Seascape shared this post along with the following comment: “Great to see Stifel publishing a new research report today on Seascape, highlighting our transformed portfolio. With so much activity in Southeast Asia already, including several licensing rounds already announced in Malaysia and Thailand, we are looking forward to an exciting 2025!”.

It should be noted that Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited acted as Sole Bookrunner to the company in connection with December’s fundraising, with David Round listed on SEA’s website as their analyst.

Completely agree. I'm not risking selling, but will use the opportunity to top-up when I can before the next hype cycle. The foundations of this company are so exciting and now fully funded, removing almost all risk. I'm happy to sit tight and be here before others realise what a gem this opportunity is

I still don't really understand the market reaction to such positive news this week, but notice that now Alvar have paid for their Xmas party the short has been lifted. Would like to see some of those investors James mentioned coming in...

Https://youtu.be/sv3ExmDnQZE?si=NHbTViNfDxho2waK

No problem guys. This is my only investment, based purely on the geology alone. I'll leave the financial side of things to the smarter brains on here, but I recognise good geology and a good team when I see it