Member Info for JamYesterday

Well so far, the Cavendish report hasn't sparked any buying interest from IIs. Left to us PIs still, to support the fundamental case.

Still no announcement from Petronas on the award of Block PM507.

And no movement from INPEX on securing a semi submersible drill for Kertang Block 2A.

All eyes down on Seascape securing a farm in partner for Temaris by the end of June, to stay on plan.

Well done, Baileysea, for standing your ground. The history of this company speaks for itself.

When a respected poster like BBN got involved briefly, I became interested, but even he seems to have seen the light recently.

Madman-Rob,

If the ITR on MOU-6 re-rates the risk/reward for PRD, and it is now in the public domain, why has Mr Market not recognised the numbers?

Something very wrong here with the story.

What % would that amount to, in relation to the current MC of PRD?

LOL, Blissful.

Yep, done 2 months ago and watched 1800 times. 1800 folk who can now see the arrogance of the man, the disdain for shareholders and keeping to self-made (but unofficial) timeframes.

And yet you still get his most ardent X follower, Jasper, trotting out in all sincerity a conspiracy theory bull case that a strategic buyer is out there, completing technical and legal due diligence.

How this one will end is going to be the stuff of movies, after GRH's book comes out.

That's the sort of question that you'll never see ProActive or Flagstaff ask, on behalf of long term shareholders.

Key takeaways for me:

SC-3: "end of June drill. Allows for 65 days delivery time for long lead items"

MOU-6: "spud no later than last week of July."

"not funded by company, not currently expected".

"It will deliver, perhaps sooner than some people would like to expect".

"We expect in Q3/Q4 to divest and monetise..."

"looking at a small acquisition in Trinidad, W.African oil, a 2-3Tcf gas prospect in a non-EU European country, offshore".

Has there been an update on all those detailed T&T workings by Madman-Rob on TG? In the light of KeithOz's post today, it all seems rather redundant.

There are one or two points concerning funding P1 that I find inconsistent, or not the accepted wisdom of shareholders here.

First, to answer your question, MgBRG96, on page 27 the report states, " In terms of asset values, we take the FY27E NPV10% (real basis) for Orom-Cross and the Gulu downstream facility. In deriving our valuations, we apply a 0.75x P/NPV risk multiple on the assumption that Phase 1 funding will be completed in 3QCY26E...."

Second, Cavendish write on p26 that, "Pending actual developments, we assume that: — US$55m of equity will be raised (covering both P1 construction and overheads) via the issuance of c529m shares priced at 8.0p (the current share price, rounded) during 2HCY26. " What? Only if to a strategic investor, which may well be the case, but not via placings, and in any case, this assumption is at odds with MR's oft-stated intent not to dilute shareholders at the group level but instead at the project level.

And again, on p25, "Blencowe plans to raise US$45m of equity to finance P1 construction, while the US$125m required for P2 is expected to be funded predominantly via debt or DFI-style routes. "

They MUST have a strategic investor in mind, to do this. That would be excellent news for all of us, but a change of strategy for BRES.

No falsehoods from me, whatever your name is.

I don't do falsehoods. I was a trained, professional fund manager that looked for internal and external consistency in broker reports, not just the flashy headlines.

But clearly, at Cavendish, someone knows their onions about graphite and Orom Cross, as they should.

Fair enough, Mark. Sloppy report writing, then.

Whatever.

In any case, the main near term driver for the sp and valuation of the project will be securing P1 funding, which Cavendish assumes will be done in Q3.

Not according to Figure 12, on page 16, it isn't.

It comes after Phase 2, which is 2027/28, then Phase 3 is 2028/29.

Just to be clear, the majority of the NPV and 49p sp target valuation is assumed to be generated by the Gulu spg plant, some 150 Kms away from Orom Cross, and described as a Phase 3 development, in 2028/29.

An honest assessment by KeithOz, there.

But not a good look for followers of PRD or of PG.

Ah. Diddums.

Yeah, the same Mad Ed who comes from a Marxist-leaning family background and wants to trash the UK O&G sector and import US Lng instead.

What happens after the current funding arrangement matures?

What's the next leg up event to take EPP to a higher level?

Looks an interesting story but I'm trying to get my head round how that dope Milliband might screw things up for this company.

IJWT, as a non-member of anything TG, I don't get access to KeithOz thoughts, but I'd be interested in knowing in what way he has now changed his tune.