Member Info for JamYesterday

What a bunch of cynics you've all become.

Lol.

Yes, if that can be adjusted. I thought the grades were similar to Orom Cross, but high grading, first, clearly would boost the Npv. Anyway, that $1bn npv number is a base case one.

Sorry, £240mn at 1.35 fx. 48p/sh.

Interesting.

Don't think adding Beehive and Ilya JORC reserves to the basic DFS numbers would increase the Npv much, unless the mine plan was revised to increase annual production in the assumed 15 year of life of the mine.

But even if it doesn't change, and assuming that Bres holds into a 50% equity share after project equity finance and Uganda getting a 15% stake, generates an attributable value of some $500mn to Bres.

Now, a poster on the Kefi bb has projected a target 66% of Npv at the just funded Tuli Kapi gold deposit in Ethiopia.

When Bres gets its funding, why wouldn't a 66% of Npv be attainable, subject to execution risk, as Uganda is surely a more stable place to operate then Ethiopia.

So, a target valuation, in GBP, of £330mn, about 48p/sh with 500mn shares o/s.

All subject to financing, timely execution and first production.

A realistic upside to aim for.

It's now exactly 5 months since the Orom Cross DFS was released.

Some people won't agree with what I'm going to say now, but in the interest of debate, here goes, anyway.

I went back over that rns and the key line I assumed to be the case was, "With the DFS now complete, the immediate next step is securing the P1 project financing package, which becomes the Company's primary corporate focus."

To be honest, I don't believe that to have been the case.

The focus, instead, has been on drilling out the Ilya and Beehive deposits, getting assay results and incorporating these into a revised JORC calculation for the entire Orom Cross resource. I counted no less than 9 RNSs on this subject, since the DFS.

I was under the impression, supported evidently by the December DFS, that enough resource had been identified in the proven + probable categories to go out and find funding partners and offtake deals to cover P1 AND P2. But all we get in the latest RNSs is a bland, repeated statement that "We continue to progress strategic and funding discussions in parallel, with offtake interest remaining strong."

My take: BRES rushed out the DFS before completing the drilling of the full extent of the graphite deposit and its comparative size to other deposits in Africa. Why? Was it because their cash was tight and the market could only take so much equity dilution before external funding was agreed? Were they merely playing a promotional game, stringing out shareholders with more tidbits after the DFS? Or is it genuinely that their preferred go-to funders, the DFC and AFC, have their own agendas and timelines, and treat little 'ol BRES still, with haughtiness rather than a solid operating partner for the long term?

Since Mike has gone totally AWOL of late, in contrast to his almost daily X posts and interviews earlier this year, we have little way of knowing where exactly we stand in regards to the progress towards funding either P1 ($40mn) or P2 ($120mn). I note , however, that the daily manic selling of shares, presumably from warrant conversions, has dried up coincidentally with this new silence. How convenient!

I've been around the blocks a few times now. I know these guys come from promotional backgrounds, but I really believe in the Orom Cross story, nevertheless. And it keeps getting bigger and bigger. So why hasn't any industrial offtaker or the AFC or DFC or an EU official consortium taken up the opportunity yet? Where do we stand? Are Heads of Terms being drawn up, or are we still drafting Term Sheets for general distribution to prospective interested parties who have remained nameless?

Come on, Mike. Open up to us. If interest is slow, just say so. If you are on the cusp of signing with one or two funding partners, again, give us a nod and a wink. Otherwise we are to conclude that this funding process might drift on all Summer, and P1 construction will not get done in 2027 at all, let alone another 2 years until P2 production can

Until recently, the whole discussion here centred on the original Orom Cross deposit and JORC resource. That was strong enough in its own right to demonstrate the feasibility of constructing an added value SPG plant in Uganda rather than shipping out graphite material elsewhere.

Indeed the whole P1 and P2 DFS was built around this deposit. And financing discussions would have been had bad on the numbers thrown up here.

But now the potential has been thrown wide open not only by the recent Ilya deposit grades and dimensions, but, equally by the Beehive deposit area. Each will add significantly to the original Orom Cross JORC numbers, giving a prospective partner or owner much improved opportunities for scaling up and longevity of production.

But it also complicates discussions. Will there be a revised mining plan? Where to start drilling the open pit first? What initial mining rate?

I presume Mike is deep in revised discussions with serious third parties, with the numbers being talked about on a much higher level now. These things take time.

Meanwhile, as the resource grows in scale and quality, the upside potential to a new, revised NPV, increases with every day that the sp is stuck around the 8p mark.

Long term investors must be salivating at the opportunity here, if you believe funding is not a problem. And, goodness me, why would there be a problem in a safe jurisdiction like Uganda, with an environmentally favourable energy input, hydro power, and lowest quartile production costs, globally?

One thing seems likely, and that's the drying up of endless large sized warrant conversion sales of late.

Opti, that's my working assumption for how events will pan out this year.

Cj, you're just giving it food to survive here, by responding. Starving it out by filtering is the better tactic.

Oh, I was wondering which Pollack in green came after my post.

I don't think there's any disagreement about that, but it's all about the longer Avacta can stay independent with a multi year cash runway, the higher the eventual takeout price will be for the prize.

A puzzled holder.

The first line to the summary of that research paper states that "the Guercif Basin play is analogous to the onshore and offshore Rharb basin on the Atlantic coast".

Wasn't that the basis on which Lonny was hired, and subsequently fired for non-performance? Not a great look, looking back with the benefit of hindsight.

I would prefer to see an in-depth presentation from management, explaining the rationale and net cost/payment for this move, how the devices are being received in medical centres, how management time is being allocated between research and manufacturing etc...

Think you might well get your target, at this rate of selling.

Biggi, the more pertinent question for you is, why are you even reading posts from trading types like Wyn ? Don't you know how to use the filter button?

Wmsjames, I like your no nonsense posts, by the way.

Presumably, the data you and BP are awaiting are the definitive conclusion of efficacy in the use of AV6000 in more than just a handful of patients. That's what I would like confirmed. Safety is already proven to be off the map.

The one thing this company lacks is any PR to spread the word more widely. I bet they don't follow up this encouraging Rns with a Proactive interview.

BV, is that Trump you are describing, or Wynbore?

What a load of malarkey.