Halfords Share Price (HFD)

Worldquant still reducing, now at 0.77 from peak 1.31%. SP still fairly supressed (retail news?). Total declared shorts now at 2.96%

Fair point about the merger with Redde but that still valued Halfords at least twice the current market cap.

This is a very sound business with a good balance sheet. The auto centres side is booming and Spring has sprung which will spur on bike sales and car cleaning products. £2.50 is a conservative estimation of where we should sit today and not £1.55.

Well although I don't have time to write a detailed post, hfd is one I definitely got wrong, had some position in this since 2018 and while I got some multi bagger returns on covid purchases, overall the experience of holding has been dire... I'll need really look at what I got wrong with this one... Think my remaining position will be jettisoned shortly....

"Redde tables at 1.4 billion pound bid which the Halfords board said significantly undervalued their company".

You are using the merged market cap of two companies (Halfords and Redde) to extrapolate a value for one of them (Halfords). Halfords has a market cap of £343m because that's what the market currently thinks it is worth. Note that HFD's market cap is less than 1/2 what it was 2 years ago. If you have low and falling margins in a tough sector this is what you get. Valuing a company on a possible future takeover is like buying lottery tickets and holing your breath.

This market cap is crazy for what this business has, I work in the automotive industry (corporate leasing sector) and 45% of all our service booking and maintenance bookings goes through Halfords.

Redde tables at 1.4 billion pound bid which the Halfords board said significantly undervalued their company.

I’ve taken a sizeable holding alongside Enquest.

This is a keeper and if/when a bid arrives it’s happy days.