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Andrew 4444 "My time horizon was 2 or 3 years but things got, urrr, complicated as the sp tanked so I just kept averaging down, and down."
Been in XTR since 2015, when the sp dropped by 75% following the fiasco at Chepica, Chile. At the 200 to 1 share consolidation in 2017, I had an average of nearly 15p! Africa alluvial and hard rock has been an ongoing disappointment of delays and placings but it may be turning at last, 4 years late.
Sirius Minerals SXX is a lesson that averaging down is a risk, that majors will not hesitate to stiff a smaller company, and that the BOD wont hesitate to stiff their PIs - all helped along by the angels (!) at JP Morgan, and the useless UK government.
Thank God for Bushranger, otherwise this company could have turned out like Sirius Minerals. I suspect it will turn out rather rosier but I await more drill results and updated 3D models and volume ranges.
Happily the decision of what price xtr goes for will be out of the hands of everyone on this board
(Unless cb goes under a pseudonym)
When Colin thinks the price is right the game is over regardless of whether some would prefer two in the bush .
Just don’t sell the majority of your holding and get an absorbing hobby .
A steady increase makes for a stable share price, whereby some will top slice and others will buy at increased levels. Commitment at different levels would decrease extreme fluctuations from profit takers. I for one prefer the steady Eddie method. Over exposure always lead to quick profit takers which will happen to a degree and i might add, i cannot blame them. Everyone has their own agenda on when to jump ship or when to put the arm bands on.
Lucky, I guess the Caravel mcap of c£100m seems low because the market expects them to develop the mine themselves, which will cost huge amounts of capital and dilution. That’s difficult to value right now. I see their PFS is due early next year. We know XTR’s stated strategy is to sell, and they have the benefit of the AA buy-back option. I suppose it’s quite possible XTR’s mcap won’t increase above Caravel’s until a defining moment, namely AA making an offer. (African assets need to be allowed for of course). If a major makes an offer for Caravel then perhaps it would see a jump in value similar to what we’re hoping for?
Pedro u mean Andrew…but thanks.. however i am actually doing ok here, 10p first top slice
F100
Good Luck Forsters 100
you have more luck than me, I invested in Savannah Resources about 6 years ago and still not making any money, I invested in Solgold made a bit of money , then invested in Xtract and holding my own. I seem to always buy at a higher rate than I should, I have even bought more to Average down, so fingers crossed that this continues upward. I note people always talk of figures like 20/30 etc but it never happens. I have always read with eagerness Iceburgs notes and so I'm still hopeful.
Lucky - as we know from here... SP doesn't reflect value at the best of times. so why would theirs? Only sensible comparison is what someone will pay for the Caravel resource... not their MCAP. as we are going to sell. only when a sale is imminent can you be certain share price is going to get to the "correct" place. just look at Morrisons for that recently
Is difficult to fully grasp potential of an evolving company like xtract. Unless you have a firm price target then that’s fine. With these assets with potentially, that once in a lifetime opportunity for most or two if eureka comes up trumps.
There is some decent longevity from here with good potential beyond a buy out of racecourse.
All or nothing was quoted regarding footrot I believe. The other tenements that are not in the buy back agreement will give some good leverage in negotiating with AA or any other major. I would not understand if all these were given up as part of racecourse buy back. Why would a major take them? They buy proven assets they don’t explore them. It may be a further buy back deal is agreed on adjacent tenements with a premium paid on racecourse.
Eureka is a serious consideration for continued investment too, another company changing asset in the making if proven IOCG.
I will keep evaluating but hope to hold for a sale then look at it again and decide.
Lots of upside and opportunity for all investors. Long or short.
"My time horizon was 2 or 3 years but things got, urrr, complicated as the sp tanked so I just kept averaging down, and down."
We've all done it. With the benefit of hindsight I noe look for decent AIM prospects in the early stages then wait a few years before investing so as to avoid the endless dilution and disappointment. Hence only in GLR fora year and less for XTR.
I don't know about 30p for every million tonnes.
This morning on another xtract chat someone posted about caravel in aus, they have approx 1.8mt open pitiable resource with potential to increase at depth.
Their mcap is approx £100m.
I had a little look at their grades and there pretty similar to ours.
I haven't gone into depth with research but they have good infrastructure around them, similar grades, nearly 2mt and MCAP OF 100M. I hope we don't get the same SP value as them.
So your circa £300k up.. mmmmmm sell up
I agree with 3 Card that very few would go into risky aim stock for 7+ years. That was not my intention! Prickly you are correct that I got it wrong here in the short term.
My time horizon was 2 or 3 years but things got, urrr, complicated as the sp tanked so I just kept averaging down, and down.
I ended up with a substantial holding, of way over 10m shares with a 2.3p average and I’m probably just being greedy by staying in longer as another circa 20p would see me make a substantial amount of additional money.
I maybe taking a risk staying in longer, but that’s nothing compared to the risks many LTH were taking in the Jan Nelson days ! At least I know I;m not going to lose all my money now!
I hope I can keep repeating my mistakes here with other investments :)
GL with whatever you decide to do.
Looking good here long and strong
F100
44. Being here for 7 years would be precisely why I wouldn't want to wait long. I suspect very few AIM investors go into risky mining plays with a 7 or 8 year expectation"
Dont forget the definition of a long term investment.... a short term investment that went wrong.
>> I was alluding to the time frames in proving up to a saleable asset taking CB age into consideration.
Yes, completely agree. I have been invested in SOLG, but I sold up about a year ago - around the time than Nick Mather was asked to step down. I thought the company had great assets but it was hard to see a route to monetization in any realistic time frame.
With respect Steve, I did know all that having been invested in both companies on and off for 10 years, but I thank you for pointing it out to those who may not.
I was alluding to the time frames in proving up to a saleable asset taking CB age into consideration.
>> CB won't do a S O L G O L D here I don't think, greed isn't good sometimes.
Very different situation to SOLG:
Australia vs Ecuador
Nearby infrastructure vs no infrastructure
Focus on one area vs many different areas throughout country
Market cap 40m vs 600m
100% owned by XTR vs Political Mess with BHP, Newcrest and Cornerstone.
Obvious route to monetization of asset vs PFS/Funding quagmire.
Excellent LSE Board vs Children's Playground :)
CB won't do a S O L G O L D here I don't think, greed isn't good sometimes.
I'm with you on that Andrew, although everyone has their own targets and timescales I suppose. I would like to benefit from this investment in my lifetime though :)
I want to get maximum value out of this , and am prepared to wait. I certainly don't want to sell without full exploration. Opportunities like this don't come along that often, and to sell on the basis of 2Mt only to find out when it's too late that there was 3, 4 or 4+Mt would be galling
I heard what SteveM said about scratching around for the last crumbs in the crisp packet, and can see that point. But we don't want to leave some full crisps in the packet by no looking for them also
For me there has to be some economic and financial modelling work to be done. This work should establish the rate of diminishing returns as more and more exploration work is carried out. This could help to workout the best economic position to sell, based on cost of further exploration and value being unearthed.
A444. Being here for 7 years would be precisely why I wouldn't want to wait long. I suspect very few AIM investors go into risky mining plays with a 7 or 8 year expectation
I'm with you Andrew, happy to wait until 2023 if thats what it takes!
I can fully understand your reasoning Andrew, but as you say, each to their own and the market as a whole will probably end up making the final choice - whatever that may be.
One thing is for sure - even the drilling so far warrants an SP far north of our current position and as that slowly sinks in, the market will respond, then the 5s, 6s and even 7s will be history - and that would at least be a good start...
I maybe in a minority of one on this, but IF the options were circa 45p in 9 months or 70p in 2 years (obviously an extra 15 months to wait ) then I would happy to wait longer. In fact even for an extra 20p.
I'm not saying those are the options but what I would do if they were.
I appreciate its just a matter of opinion and everyone has their own exit strategies. I've been here over 7 years so waiting an extra 15 months would not be an issue to me.
Each to their own I guess
CE - I would also like to see us proving up the asset for another 6-9 months. However, I'd like the negotiations to run concurrently, having been triggered by a JORC estimating 2mt of contained Cu Eq.
I don't think that many more drill holes will be required to prove up the 2mt inside the conceptual open pit and once that's done, I hope they'll leave the NW extension (lower grades) as 'open', and shift the focus to the bigger, likely higher grade, anomalies to the SE. In 6-9 months they could drill another 35-40 holes there, get an inferred resource estimate and significantly add to the sale price. One or two holes in Footrot, just to prove it isn't a Jaffa, would also a add a little more.
I will be happy to get a fair price in 6-9 months time based on what we've proven up. But I'd be really unhappy with either a quick/cheap sale or us drilling the thing for another 2 years. Need the right balance.
I can see where you are coming from, Ben et al.
However, if it comes to an option to accept around 30p per share in 6 months time for a proven-up extended open pit, or wait 2 years or so to also prove up the surrounding anomalies and then get around 75p per share, I think I know what the majority of PIs would go for.
My personal preference would be to prove up the extended open pit and the south-eastern anomaly ( 6-9 months) then press the button to trigger negotiations over 40 -50p a share...