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In that case I wouldnt want a quick sale until footrot was drilled. I believe that the IP survey was good there, so unless we do some drilling we cant value it accurately. Footrot could be hiding 1 to 2 mt ?
Because of the unknown factor, it may be silly to accept a quick sale until we did more drilling in all areas with potential .
Agree CE. Colin was clear AA wouldn't want another party, or a risk of another party next door
I feel like an expectant father (again !) wondering about the exact birth date and the likely weight of the newborn !! :)
I asked that question on the evening and it sounds like it is 'all or nothing' for the entire licence.
Could there be a sale not including footrot ...so we can process drilling there after a deal
my guess is there will be at least a phase 3 drilling programme by xtr at racecourse.... and any outright buy out of racecourse will not happen before q3 2022, at earliest.
I agree with you Joe, Steve and Andrew. The way things are shaping up (melon rather than avocado), this is looking bigger than 2MT, especially when you look at the south east IP images. I think Colin has disregarded Footrot and I'm OK with that as we will have a huge system with just Racecourse and its extensions, IE 3-4MT+. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for 40p+ if we can prove up 3MT. Results for hole 17 and the subsequent ones in phase 2 will be crucial for this though...
If there is 2+ MT of contain Cu Eq within the conceptual open pit, and the anomalies to the south east are much bigger and likely to be higher grade, then 25-30p is far too cheap IMO. And there is a 1km long anomaly at Footrot too.
I think spending another 6 months counting what we have would strike the right balance between managing risk and getting value.
I think if the remaining holes testing the SE extension come back reasonable then 25 to 30p is a bit low (as we are expecting the JORC update will surely be >2mt).... but still portfolio changing for me.
Hello CE
Thank for the info.
Maybe I'm being unrealistic or just bloody greedy, but if we sold out for 25 to 30p now I would be a little disappointed!
Just a little disappointed mind :)
dont think we can have many complaints if we get 25-30p for Racecourse banked before October next year...
Caveat Emptor 11:25am, Wed, 20 Oct 2021.
Quote: "Several points during EVENING Colin was asked about a possible buy out. Colin did seem to lean toward a QUICK SALE being a better option for current shareholders and 25p -30p was mentioned in this CONTEXT. Colin repeatedly stated OCT 2022 as a back-stop for triggering the BUY-OUT CLAUSE, so I think he would be happy with an early sale.
I think that if AA came forward with a offer of 25p+ tomorrow, then CB would be only too happy to sit down and start negotiations."
[Ref: Evening with Colin Bird, Executive Chairman for shareholders of XTR etc on 14.10,21 in London]
Comment:
Posting for my archives. I did STUDY Mr Bird*s MODUS OPERANDI and he goes for a quick sale at the level like Kiwara in Zambia to First Quantum of some US$265m from recall.
Yes, as I said, a long drawn play out like what others want may end up with a situ like...better not mention the name. Mr Bird is cognisant of the empirical cases.
Wed, 20 Oct 2021.
At several points during the evening Colin was asked about a possible buy-out price from AA - obviously some attendees thought that we should take the time required to prove up as big a resource as possible so as to maximise the selling price and up to 75p was mentioned as being possible, but Colin did seem to lean towards a quick sale as being the better option for current shareholders and 25-30p was mentioned in this context. Colin repeatedly stated October 2022 as a backstop for triggering the buy-out clause, so I think he would be happy with an early sale.
I think that if AA came forward with an offer of 25p + tomorrow then CB would be only too happy to sit down and start negotiations...
Hi James
That's good to know. Thanks
I also think it unlikely that would be the reason (as stated in my post) but , like you, I've been here long enough to know that delay in news doesnt always mean good news is coming :)
Occam's razor says he's waiting to release good news just before the AGM......I think!
Until we know, we will all probably feel a little uneasy. I do think though something (hopefully good news) might be going on. A revised model, or negotiations have been opened with AA both seem possibilities on the positive side. It seems unlikey there is really bad news coming soon because like others I think we would have been getting a different vibe from Colin. But I've been wrong before ....
Hi Andrew
At the meeting last week CB was talking about how he was getting a hard time from the FCA regarding apparently delaying bad results in BZT(granted this was longer and he obviously denied), But I would imagine that this is playing on his mind so doubt he’d try to avoid publishing bad results until he can offset them with good results as any further accusations wouldn’t do him much good.
Cheers
James
Did someone mention that CB said he had been warned about too many RNS for XTR? That might be the simplest explanation.
Of course, we have had 12 RNS in the last 5 weeks and its only four business days since the last one. I think we might be a little over-impatient :)
I feel like an RNS junkie who's suffering from withdrawal symptoms!
As Andy says, what with the recent meeting comments, I can't see that the delay means bad news. Maybe they are just waiting to align drilling results with assay results. He would have had an idea of what were in the latest cores before the meeting, why set yourself up for a fall?
But what type of storm will we have? Rerate RNS with 3d model blowing the doors off or news that latest assay results / drill results not as good as previous? The lack of news could be due to CB waiting for other assay results / drill results to cover some disappointing results.
That may be unlikely, but having been her many years that does start to pay on my mind when news is delayed.
That said, I am assuming that CB would not have been so bullish on Thursday with the claim that we will definitely hit 2mt (reported comment) and talk of 25p to 30p, if the next set of results were going to be disappointing.
So I am assuming the wait will be worth while and he is waiting to release the good news a day or so before the AGM on Monday. That seems more likely imo.
Conspiracy theory - A news blackout could be due to an offer from AA.
Probably to soon for that but you nvr know :)
Howezap
My girlfriend is hoping to put in a swimming pool in the garden of her place in France. Sounds like you can build these overnight. Do you work abroad?
>> I was hoping to take up oil wrestling with Danni Menzies
Am I showing my age by not knowing who that is, but wondering if she was related to John?
I definitely don't want another job.
I was hoping to take up oil wrestling with Danni Menzies but there must be something wrong with her internet connection because she isn't replying to any of my messages. I guess I'll have to make do with RNS Waiting as a hobby for now.
Or Steve needs another job.
Talking of storms, I dug out ground for a new tennis court yesterday, came in this morning , the client now has a big rectangle shape pond :)
>> Sounds like you need a past time mate.
I've always wanted to visit Troy, or maybe Constantinople when they were building the Hagia Sophia, or perhaps Rome during the reign of Trajan
Or did you mean pastime? :)