Member Info for CaveatEmptor

Agreed :-)

Hello Lucky,

I believe that, as with the low hanging fruit at Manica, the hand sorting at Kalengwa may have been seen as a distraction from the main task in hand - that of setting up sustainable commercial production on both sites.

So am not holding my breath on that front...

Whoever it is must be making a big loss as there have been precious few shares bought for less than 0.65p.

Decent SP movement again today,

Let's hope the hard rock news warrants it...

I still feel they will want to "check out the goods" before putting forward a buy-out offer. That would mean processing hard rock for at least 3 months.

With first production due in August/September that means any offer would likely be made in Q1 2021, during the rainy season, at the earliest.

Not what a lot of us want to hear - but the most likely scenario IMO.

However, if and when an offer does come then , as many have stated, it will take the SP to many, many times the current level.

Hello Andrew,

I am well, thank you and I hope you are too.
Here in London there seems to be quite a bit of panic over the virus, and I guess I can understand it for those in the high risk category and they should certainly already be self-isolating IMO.
I calculated that even here, where the infection rate is worst, and taking the worst case scenario of there being 10,000 Greater Londoners infected without their knowledge I could still have close contact with 6 different people every day for 6 months and the likelihood is that only one of those people would be infected. So I am finding it a bit difficult to understand the current response.
I guess I can only put it down to 'better safe than sorry'.
No I meant the April show - at the time I spoke to Colin there was no talk of postponement.
ATB

I spoke to Colin recently and he confirmed that he would be at the show as usual. It is likely that many companies do not confirm their attendance until the last minute as relatively few are listed on their website until a week or two before the show date.

I just did a dummy buy for 50,000 shares, the ask is 1.25p and it went to NT.
...very odd?

The current SP does not seem to reflect recent reported trades. Has the bid been artificially dropped to encourage sells so that buy orders can be filled?
Did anybody actually manage to buy shares yesterday at below 1.25p?
Games being played by the MMs as usual...

Looking through MMP eyes, low hanging fruit is probably a distraction. They are probably focused on the commercial hard rock production .

Providing we get income from HR production this year, it may be the best option?

Hello Andrew,

As always I agree with 80% of what you say and respect the rest.
Just looking at the POG over the last few hours shows that even the largest markets can be manipulated, so what chance have we go on AIM?
Fortunately all markets tend to react to anticipated events and that should mean that XTR should profit overall.

A certain amount of patience will almost certainly be needed here....

Having had more time to digest the RNS I am coming to the conclusion that it would probably be a bit premature for MMP to put in an offer at this stage. From their perspective ot would be a bit like buying a pig in a poke.
If I were them I would want to get some actual production statistics on which to base an offer. I believe that MMP are cash rich but I doubt they are desperate to spend it.
Taking Andrew's points on board, there is a good chance that keeping to the partnership deal will make more money for XTR shareholders in the medium to long term so a buy-out scenario is probably not on the radar at this time.

Having said that, if we can get cast iron assurances that the building of the CIL plant will be complete and we will be into commercial hard rock production before the rainy season starts then I can see the SP bagging from this level.

Let's see what the next update says...

Hello NTM,

Of course CB would have to be able to complete the sale first! Not at all a certainty that he can do it, as there are many variables, not least the POG.

However on the upside, CB does have a proven track record of selling assets, so who knows?

This is still a risky share IMHO, but less risky today than it was yesterday, I think that, in itself, is worth a bit of an increase in the SP - don't you?

The market certainly seems to be waking up now - well done those that bought on early doors - could prove to be a great investment? However, I would hope that any cash distribution made after a sale of the hard rock would be at least 1p per share ( only £5M cash distribution) - so those buying at the moment may end up getting their shares gratis?

To be fair,

CB said before the end of march, but didn't give a year LOL.

Seriously though, on past performance March could easily slip into April, but if there will then be an offer on the table that gives the company sufficient cash to develop our other intrests and, just as importantly, to make a cash distribution to we long suffering shareholders, I would be inclined to forgive him one more time...

Interesting that the RNS was published at 4.30.

Was this done so that all shareholders will have time to fully digest the information before resumption of trading tomorrow?

Not often that companies take the trouble to put all investors on a level playing field?

So, could this really be a serious development that will change the trading fundamentals of the company? If so, a serious rerate of SP is on the cards...

Hello Andrew,
I agree.
Most commentators in 2019 expected the POG to rise dramatically in 2020 just based on political and economic global factors. .
Global markets hate uncertainty above almost anything else.
The new epidemic started at the end of 2019 and has certainly contributed to an increasing amount of uncertainty since then.

Once the epidemic was seen to take hold, the natural response of investors was to liquidate many of their investments into cash - once panicked, even from gold that had, up until that point, been profiting from the uncertainty.

As the pandemic continues to set in I believe that many will pile their cash into a safe haven - traditionally gold.

The viral outbreak is likely to run its course in 6-12 months and the fatality rates of 1% are now being questioned in favour of up to 3.5%. This will cause even more uncertainty, if not panic in some areas.

The bottom line is that many, myself included, will probably move a higher proportion of their investments into gold and other 'safe' minerals for the short to medium term.

This should produce a spike in the POG that could last up to 18 months, so those that can, will throw everything they have available at 'making hay whilst the sun shines'... All in my personal opinion, of course.

ATB

Hello Andrew,

The sale/royalty scenario does seem attractive as the royalty would give XTR, based on current POG, around £2M a year for about 15 years ( for the full licence) . This would give XTR ongoing funding and therefore, financial security.

It would also make a very valuable licence more easily affordable to the purchasers...

If CB can get over $40M for the sale part of the deal then that is great, but I would be more than happy with my prediction

Gixxer, the predicted replacement income for alluvials could refer to the royalty I mentioned?

Recently it has been out of character for CB to make an outright sale of anything.

My guess is that he will sell the whole of the licence with a royalty on future production. That would give plenty of money up front and ongoing income to fund other projects. A 5% royalty would probably fully fund our planned project development.
Sale of licence for between $30M and $40M on this basis would be an excellent result IMO.

We will know by the end of Q1...