The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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"The next wave should see a more serious approach you would think"
And that's the $64,00 question (or that should be $64M question !)
Would the next wave see a more serious approach and "it really would be different this time" with CB.
I've been saying "this time it will be different" re Cb's latest forward guidance for many years !
Of course, may be next time it really will be different ! If you wait long enough and have enough money to keep betting on 9 Red - you should eventually win .
But whether you win more than you have already lost is another question :)
Andrew. Agreed, that does sum at AIM.
In the current market l am not sure if Colin could raise money on good terms. Hence why everything on the slow burn. AIM exploration stocks are in the doldrums and for all the hype about copper shortages, 4.75% in Nationwide is more tempting.
I would not disagree with those points Andrew, I can just see the next run when market conditions turn, being of a different approach to PR. The first wave was a desperate attempt to capture the imagination of investors to believe in this magical BR story that you simply wouldn’t want to miss out on. I certainly believe for good reason too.
The next wave should see a more serious approach you would think, suitable to attract bigger investors that are less risk averse. if the company can offer value to the market from the status of up to date assets, without the need for more cash from holders then that will be great.
But even If all is well with the next batch of news there is still a potential £4m deficit in strategic operating cash, so Colin may still need to ramp it up again. But at the same time have some reasonable to good fundamentals to back it up and underpin a higher market cap this time that simply wasn’t the case before.
I am of course making my own assumptions that we simply do not know yet, and am basing an investment case over 18 months or so ‘from’ when the company finally show their hand. I think that would be a fair time frame to see further developments.
HZ
Another way of saying what your saying is that only a very small number of people know what CB is really like, so if we start to attract new investors they may naively and blindly believe what CB says re forward guidance.
That may well happen with a bit of good news to start the ball rolling. May be starting the new interest interest from FB income being announced?
If that starts the "new investors" coming in and a re rate of the sp, I wonder how many who are currently invested will take that as an opportunity to jump out, leaving the new naïve investors to deal with the consequences of an SP fall after actual results don't match CB's forward guidance? Rinse and repeat .....
Actually, I may have just described exactly how the Aim market works :)
>>The problem is many now don't believe any forward guidance timescales , and for good reason.
That could certainly be considered for the many that have been or are still involved in the company, or have previously just researched it. . But that is only a tiny proportion of the potential investor base out there. Most juniors are unknowns, even to the investors of the hundreds of others small cap mining companies on AIM.
Would be stretching it to say that maybe one percent have ever even heard of Colin Bird or even the various companies he runs.
The PR, if timed right, with a steady flow of positive news supported by clear fundamentals will start to attract the next wave of investors going into the next bull run when global conditions are right. Just being up on the LSE leaderboard and pinged to the ‘many’ thousands of subscribers after decent news will attract interest.
I agree on BR Andrew, as the longer it’s held off, the less chance of a further cash raise.
Joe
Your bullet points of potential news releases could be correct, but the most important part in your post, imho, is when you stated....
" if the March presentation can be believed:"
The problem is many now don't believe any forward guidance timescales , and for good reason.
I hope I'm wrong but I don't think we will be hearing any news about RC for some time as we probably need more in fill drilling to improve the economics. The next likely news will be about FB income which will eventually drive the additional work required at RC .
As I say I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.
The next RNS will probably be AGM calling notice in 2 weeks
Is plenty of news already that must be stacking up to be released ‘strategically’. Potential to be some news of proportional significance from each of the assets. If the development schedule has kept momentum and seen progression, there must surely be some decent upside unlocked from here.
The roasties on Sunday made the point again that companies that had managed to previously get their funding in place will be prime position to advance projects.
So for Xtract to come out the other end of this sustainable, ( if not already) will be very good news indeed, and particularly so, if the projects have seen that continued development, in what has pretty much seen many projects elsewhere having to be parked up until new money returns.
Agree captain, would be nice if Colin remembered he had BR in the depths of his pockets...
Now the PL is very nearly over, he can stop tweeting about Nottingham Forest and focus on triggering that buy back clause!
There could be a bow-wave of information in the very near term if the March presentation can be believed:
1. Results of the Preseparation study at Bushranger
2. Publishing of NPV figures for Bushranger including this.
3. Permit application for further exploration (Manica or Bushranger).
4. Operational production figures for Manica (quarterly reporting clearly showing ongoing value to Xtr)
5. Plans/Flowsheet for expanded production at Manica to process transition and sulphate material.
6. News of additional oxide targets at Manica.
7. Operational news from Kakuyu in Zambia ( report suggests mining contractor engaged and agreement completed with Kabwe).
8. Results of testing at Kakuyu (by Jubilee).
9. Drilling/ exploration plan/permit at Kakuyu for the targets identified.
I'm sure there are even more possibilities for news..... but you are correct that without anything coming out the shareprice will dip and that is frustrating.
On price movement lately, we really do need news.
Was referencing Ma Bakers last wonderful post.
“Ok now i talk in code “
Wish I had something to sniff to take the pain away….
Oh god, not The Code 🧟♂️😫 Please anything but The Code
Pi55ing and wind spring to my mind
Brushing and carpet spring to mind L250
Maybe he doesn't tweet but a fellow investor does for him.... in which case perhaps that person doesn't hold xtr......
Just a thought. You never know who is tweeting from an official.... just ask Elon or Colleen Rooney
Colin is tweeting about copper. He has tagged AFP BZT and GLR but avoided XTR
I wonder why?
Don’t worry we’re all at sea on this one! Couldn’t resist :)
Last year I had to leave early and am very keen to stick around afterwards this year, to catch up with others and their thinking. Perhaps dig deep to buy Colin a beer or two!
Is interesting to look at Caravels pathway to their PFS from 2017 prior to scoping study when they ‘did’ have positive results return from bulk ore sorting test work initially to prove the concept with core samples (as per what xtract are waiting on) and then further BOS tests in 2018 on a 1-2ton bulk load sent for more extensive and advanced work that they stated was critical for incorporating BOS into the front end flowsheet that a PFS inputs require.
I previously missed their BOS results somehow but as of their scoping study the tech is incorporated, but interestingly their full PFS ‘22 in based on using other resource and mining optimisation methods. Stating that due to recent advancements in BOS installations they are waiting to see what further upside can come from it as they have a great starting point already with significant results.
It is a fair comparison, but worth considering, are Xtract for now, just proving the resource to a level, enough to trigger the buy back to get an answer? As where Caravel differ, is they have been building the resource with the intention to mine it themselves.
https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-cash-market/historical-announcements
Caravel ASX code CVV
Worth a look even just to get an idea what Xtr shareholders can expect to come from the pre concentration study if and when it’s returned. I’m sure CB said in podcast it will be RNS’d.
I really hope AGM will be during my present leave, any time in June would be good, had to miss last year as was at sea when held.
Might be worth chatting with Andy Mills A4444. He was in contact with him ~6m ago
The mention of CE made me check if he has posted at all on his other shares - since he stopped posting here.
Nothing for a year.
I know he was invested in other of CB's companies so its a bit surprising / worrying that he abruptly stopped posting on all of his shares at the same time.
I hope he's OK and nothing untoward happened to stop him posting ?
I was in email comms with him and he's not replied to any emails either.
I bit worrying tbh I hope he's OK.
Dani
Fully agreed with Charles, (CaveatEmptor) with the issuing, and then having the warrents outstanding, suggest’s there is a financing overhang so can stifle share price. <
Which to ‘me’ made CB’s PR efforts in ‘that’ respect very transparent. But certainly done so, more in the interests of the shareholders that had averages below the last round of placing prices to minimise dilution.
If further financing of BR can now be done from treasury, and there is decent enough IRR on the project then the share price will be finally driven by the fundamentals and far less need by CB’ previous rhetoric PR.
Charles would have had plenty to say about the ‘Decision to mine’ was up for xtract being involved in developing it to mine in some way or part themselves. Has totally dropped off the radar??
Bit more clarity at AGM on implications of DtM in regards to one of his comments with roasties that a ‘partner will need to be found.’
>>Who, the hell is now going to believe a word he ever says in an interview ever again
No one - A better man would step aside IMO
'Whistling in dark springs to mind !'
Or
Treating his Investors with contempt might spring to others mind .. eg Gixxers .. or, in fairness, mine, to a small/medium extent ..( I don't think it was maliciously done.. hence my 'small/medium' extent wording)
"he knew long before us that the grades/tonnage etc from drilling campaigns to date down the Bush were going to be decently shy of what he was earlier hoping/expecting.. and instead of trying to manage back expectations on a gentle/incremental basis he just 'kept digging'."
Exactly NtM
Almost as if he thought if he kept saying it, it would eventually become true :)
Whistling in dark springs to mine !