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All pretty fair imho Andrew, and encourages me to add a some 'micro' to my previous 'macro' post:
To para phrase Warren Buffett .. when you realise you're in a hole, you should stop digging..
The thing that has me more angry with CB than at any time previously in my many - plenty range trading orientated - years involvement in this share - and, to be clear, I have been somewhat angry often with him previously.. hence seeing this more and more as a range trading play as I went - was that he knew long before us that the grades/tonnage etc from drilling campaigns to date down the Bush were going to be decently shy of what he was earlier hoping/expecting.. and instead of trying to manage back expectations on a gentle/incremental basis he just 'kept digging'..
(and the extent of the s/p collapse here is somewaht understandable to me off the back of such behaviour by CB...but i still think, versus fundametals, the s/p fall here has been decently over done..)
CB was right to be overly optimistic if his intention was to raise the sp to get a placing away. I think he can be forgiven for that as the bigger picture of his intentions was to progress RC and therefore realise value.
However, after the second raise he didnt stop with his ramping and I remember exactly what he said in a zak interview
"we know we have the grades" and " I'm not bothered about the grades"
They were mostly circa 0.25% cu so these are the grades he was talking about
Then in the roast interview in Nov last year he said (I'm paraphrasing this bit)
" We would have a problem if all the grades were around 0.25% but we have the near surface grades into the 0.3% "
So the grades circa 0.25% were not a problem..... but then they were a problem.
That isnt CB being overly optimistic. He's been found out imho and his tone in the Nov roast interviews implied he was rattled and had no credible answers. So he tried to Gas light the shareholders and imply it was our lack of understanding rather then his failure to delivery. Desperate and transparent tactics imho.
Who, the hell is now going to believe a word he ever says in an interview ever again (waves at Dani :) )
All that said, more by luck than anything else, I really do think it will be OK # in the end, simply because of the future higher POC in 2024/2025 .
# OK being £100m buyout at some point in the future (after 10,000 lashes though, not just a 1000 ! )
Lol !
While I think you're a bit - definitely not a lot though - too hard on CB, Gixxer , I do rate your posting here highly as a rule.
In some sort of vague defence of CB, I'll offer that like many, many other AIM Executives, CB has a very positive mental attitude by DNA and strong 'Marketing Orientation' is a pretty natural occurrance off the back of such. So focusing hard on any positives while ignoring any negatives is kinda par for the course for Execs on AIM.. and they become more and more conditioned to this modus operandi as they go.. eg you have to have a strong 'story' to get a listing away on AIM.. and you have to 'find' the positives as you go that allows you keep getting raises away towards getting to an end game which you have religion on being achievable, 'eventually'
(Unfortunately the consequences of this standard Exec modus operandi, somewhat across the AIM Market as a whole, for PI's who are anything other than super cynical, very untrusting or, in whatever way, generally very good at playing the game are often awful: many, -many - in the round, lose lots of money from their 'Investing' activity in AIM, sadly)
"I hope you have a comprehensive file of figures with which to baffle the PI's "
From reading her many previous posts, I think its fair to say, she does :)
What does "gun for 1p a share" mean ?
Steve Whatshisface already did that months ago, I hope you have a comprehensive file of figures with which to baffle the PI's as simple deramperizing doesn't work.
CB may have been found out as being overly optimistic...... or worse.
it's my opinion that Bird has knowingly mislead the market to boost the SP and get a few cash calls out - Telling investors it would have a '100y mine life' 'world class/T1 asset' and a few at the AGM a few years back that it would be sold for ~30p a share (Didn't CE tell us he mentioned 45p?? when he spoke to him at the AGM - What a joke). How could he have known that after a few drill holes?! (at the time).
I'm about with you on your min value NTMU - BR will be worth something, if no more than to see what else is there....my min value was £20e6 tho so a potential, all in worth, of ~5p should it be shown BR is not currently viable
It's pretty much 6 weeks since we were told the results form the sorting study would be complete - If it's not good I doubt we will see the results from that before the AGM, if at all.
One things for sure, he won't be able to quietly brush BR under the carpet as he has done with so many other of his feck-ups....
"will others want to buy us out like Kiwara when we have a whole stable of random projects alongside BR"
I don't see this as a problem. The buy-out valuation will be determined from BR sale ie £100M and shareholders will get the cash for their shares and then the sp will reflect the remaining valuation ie sp falls back down to 3 or 4p reflecting assets left ex BH ie mostly FB. I can't see the other assets stopping a buy-out for just BR.
"hence my concern anyone who bought at 6p+ won't see a return of their money, unless a buy out takes place."
If there is no news indication we have a viable asset in BR then I can't see sp going over 4P as valuation it will only be based on FB plus small copper deposits. Could be that all the news we get over next 12 months gives no indication that we have a major who would be interested. CB may have been found out as being overly optimistic...... or worse.
That said, I still remain confident that what may save us, and CB, is the POC going over $12K ..or much higher, but I doubt that will be happening for 1 or 2 years.
If the crowd are avoiding AIM due to it seeming a riskier area to invest, or simply due to economic downturn means PIs have less funds, how are we ever going to return to 6p?
The only two ways I can actually see shareholder value here are
A) a buy out.
B) dividends.
A is obviously preferable. I don't really want to be hanging around for the Kakuye to come to fruition and/or other random African copper adventures. I've been here 5 years and put up with enough of Colin's unrealistic timescales and over-exuberance. Problem is - will others want to buy us out like Kiwara when we have a whole stable of random projects alongside BR. Manica itself does not seem interesting enough to PIs, hence my concern anyone who bought at 6p+ won't see a return of their money, unless a buy out takes place.
Colin, you sold us the dream. Get this thing sold. Put a bow on it, like you said. I'll take 10p now, unlike you when you ridiculously rejected a hypothetical 10p bid.
I understand/get all that Andrew.. but I'd go as far as saying I understand 1.35p two months ago more than I understand 1.65p today.. this rallied recently up to 2.35p ish ON FUNDAMENTALS - ie obvious ongoing Fairbride 'Ard progress - and even allowing for a retrace for profit taking from short term bets, I'm still very surprised this has already gone back under 1.75 p.... and, if news vacuum thru May etc, it may even go further back again....hopefully not, obviously
NtM
I think mismatch between SP and fundamentals is down to a complete lack of trust in CB now, after all his previous failed predictions against timelines and output.
Although it does seem bizarre that the market has not recognised ANY future FB income, that is the price CB now pays for this poor forward guidance. The market will now only respond to facts in the RNS imho.
We should have all those facts re FB income in an RNS in the next 2 to 5 months and even if the income levels are not as CB previously stated, its going to be high enough to see a substantial SP rerate closer to 3p than 2p imho.
The saying "you can fool some of the people some of the time but not all of the people all the time" springs to mind.
AGM in 5 to 6 weeks should be interesting :)
I'm a pretty seasoned AIM - commodities stocks especially - campaigner .. and have seen a lot of s/p awfulness in my time playing the AIM game. Yet this at approx. 1.5 p here around now, is still a pretty extraordinary sight for me.
With Fairbride 'ard progressing reasonably now, I'm gutted by this latest punchy retrace .. and even if plenty more millions are spent down the Bush over the next 12 + months..and things, in the round, go poorly - they may go decently or well of course - there will be some sort of sell on value of 10- 20m usd, worst case there imho.. This alongside Xtr's Africa Gold revenue growing out to healty ongoing numbers, makes a market cap of 15m ish gbp now ish feel very wrong here to me.... But it is what it is, sadly .. and -likely- with fewer and fewer participating on AIM as a rule these years .. - financial harikari feel about playing this game in the eyes of more and more/many- it's can often generally be harder and harder to shake off depressed AIM s/p's, alas.
Still, time can of course still be a healer here and more widely .. and the weather is - slowly - turning summery.. so looking at a p/f of red feels less and less appealing by the day to me.... and instead getting out and about more, more appealing by the day !
I'm almost praying for this to drop below 1.5 purely so that i can bring my average down further. I do think this will come good soon. Therefore happy to buy a few more at the right price
Oh yeah it finished up at close not level!
Ta muchly Andrew I had muddled xtr with another that was down
Snap howzap !!
SP is not down 8% in reality. There was a U/T trade after hours yesterday which caused a false close of up6%.
Its probably down 2% in reality
There was a small UT at, or up to close yesterday which the bid and ask were raised for no real reason to close level after a 5% drop most of the day. So the apparent drop today is not as much as it would have been. 2-3%
May explain this mornings drop Docit
Yep could be the reason. That would make XTR quite an atractive at this point.
Docit - just look at the price of copper !
A hefty decline reaction considering only five silly transactions. Is there news to come that might not be in favour, i ask. Maybe lack of news might be the cause.
As he notes CB is most likely to add value in Winter, I feel - semi - comfortable in saying Happy Christmas -seriously - in advance to Kwaduko !
Have you been let again?
As said before, why does Colin Bird companies seem to run into so many 'problems'?
JVs that fall apart, sales that never happen, targets that are never met?
At best, it is a show of incompetence and poor due diligence. At worst....
BZT is now worth less than 10% of the SP when Colin Bird took over.
So far we have had a JV in Cyprus- got called off after a dispute with the partners
We have exceptional hand held machine assays from Kalengwa (which XTR is also active in) which ended up being bull**** in the lab
We had a JV in Phillipines- which fell apart
We started our first drill in Nambia f(for copper & gold) 2.5 years ago. There is supposed drilling going on but we have had 2 or 3 sets of small assay results in the last 2 years. Colin has indebted the company with a £1 million loan last year which he said was going to be primarily for the Cyprus JV which fell apart. He has done another round of placings last month which has obliterated our SP. We have no idea how we will pay this £1 million loan as we have no cash generating projects in the horizon. No doubt he will issue another round of placings which will take the SP to 0.01 (it was 0.5 when he took over).
When he comes to a a dead end in one project, he just seems to find another one to ramp which needs to be worked up from Level 0..which means more placings and SP destruction and more importantly- which means he continues getting paid and continue whatever lifetstyle he is leading in UAE. You saw the same with XTR, when OZ was running dry, he started ramping Africa
But he can only do the same thing for a certain amount of time. All ramps fall on deaf ears now. He may end up indebting XTR with a similar sort of loan that he pulled on BZT.
Be very careful
Colin Bird’s AIM record (as of mid May 23):
Time he became CEO of BZT- SP 0.5….now 0.04 >90% fall
Time he became CEO of XTR- SP 10...now 1.8 >80% fall
Time he became CEO of Galileo 7.38...now 1.2 >75% fall
And no, this isnt because of a bear market. Even during the peak of the COVID market bubble his companies were below the SP when he took over.
So we can see that investors have lost ££ putting cash in his companies but does anyone know how much money he makes from his AIM ‘companies’. Ive looked at some company accounts and it seems very opaque how much is spent on salaries. All I know about him is that he lives in UAE {which is tax free) and has a penchant for racehorses.
This seems very optimistic. If you look at the record of COlin Birds companies
Round after round of ramping falling by placements. One foot forward, one foot back. Target after target missed. Then there is the summer hiatus when CB goes quiet because he spends our money in Europe on a nice long holiday.
ANything that will happen, will happen in winter.
Colin Bird’s AIM record (as of mid May 23):
Time he became CEO of BZT- SP 0.5….now 0.04 >90% fall
Time he became CEO of XTR- SP 10...now 1.8 >80% fall
Time he became CEO of Galileo 7.38...now 1.2 >75% fall
And no, this isnt because of a bear market. Even during the peak of the COVID market bubble his companies were below the SP when he took over.
So we can see that investors have lost ££ putting cash in his companies but does anyone know how much money he makes from his AIM ‘companies’. Ive looked at some company accounts and it seems very opaque how much is spent on salaries. All I know about him is that he lives in UAE {which is tax free) and has a penchant for racehorses.