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>> if they ‘were’ expecting the pre-concentration study to be released. - So are you saying Bird purposely lied to the market and had no intention of releasing the news?
I think the market would respond far more favourably if he actually ONCE met a deliverable or actually didn't lie to them....
Interesting reply howezap. Won't speak for EI but can speak for myself, of course.
Naturally anyone can leave at any time but having believed CB's previous forward statements and considered them reasonably genuine, I'm now 50% underwater. The point here is that what Colin says when representing the company matters. Currently many many investors are underwater and that is down to Colin's management of the rhetoric, release of news and lack of adherence to his own timescales.
Second, you state: "What he said was they were expecting it back in 3-4 weeks! In the world of PR that doesn’t mean it would get put out then."
Interesting approach to the use of PR. I would like to see PR as a way of reassuring current investors, enticing new investors and generally showcasing the possible returns a publicly listed company may make in the future. I would genuinely like to trust Xtract's PR in the future, yet you seem to class PR as not needing to be reliable RE timescales. You make it sound like Colin is playing games with us all, or at the least manipulating shareholders. A little bit of honesty and realism would be very much appreciated going forward.
You really think Bird is that 'clever' - Laughable......
The door is always open to leave at anytime Eastern. And I think that is where Colin is clever in what he says by putting out some nibbley bits to temp people from leaving the party early. So where you say no one fell for it this time, you could say they have, if they ‘were’ expecting the pre-concentration study to be released.
What he said was they were expecting it back in 3-4 weeks! In the world of PR that doesn’t mean it would get put out then.
So it may well have been the point to keep the disgruntled hooked and not necessarily to ‘directly’ prompt more buying in which case could well have been a successful episode.
Ben, sadly you are correct. Despite all the criticism of his predicted time scales and over egging things, CB still cannot resist. This time around, no one fell for it and the claim of 3 - 4 weeks was met with derision. No one is surprised, just saddened.
6th April, Colin told the roast chaps that it was 3-4 weeks before concentration feasibility study would be ready. Almost 8 weeks later and not a zip. Either Colin is sitting on it and plugging in the numbers or his forward looking statements are once again about as useful as a chocolate teapot. Old habits die hard.
James on the other hand maybe Xtr should stand up or it goes their choice.
They cannot keep ignoring it do they want it or not that is the 64000 dollar question.
The problem with the monthly FB income figures being quoted is that very few state £ or $ or, moreover, if its Revenue or Profit.
I think £250K FCF a month is a reasonable assumption but that's clear profit and after all tax paid (Corp and mining tax). That would be the equivalent to circa $500K a month revenue pre tax.
Hi Gwynwin
Why would anyone buy the asset from XTR with the Anglo option hanging over the asset, unless it’s another small company who think they add a bit of value and then flip it in which case it’s hard to see it being an attractive price for XTR?
I hope/expect fairbride will be adding more thank 250k per month although I’m not optimistic on anything material from the other asset (kuwali or what ever the heck it’s called).
Cheers
James
You got to think if some one wants race course in Aus then the question is do they want to get it now at a price or wait until more tests and pay a bigger premium.
Looks like FB will be adding a quarter of a mil per month then all the others will be coming on line in and around Africa could be a bumper year for XTR.
Completely agree with all your points James
"as forecasts have a big element of CB in them people are clearly applying a discount here on future cashflows "
looking at the sp, It appears the discount being applied is 100% :-) I'm sure that will change as soon as we get actual full results with profit stated to Xtract
Isn’t it simply that the assets as they stand don’t warrant a market cap of more than 15m (or what ever it is currently)
We are still waiting on Manica to prove itself, as forecasts have a big element of CB in them people are clearly applying a discount here on future cashflows (I’m still optimistic on this asset). Basically once cashflows hit in a meaningful way via RNS I’m sure the SP will respond positively.
It’s hard to see how BR has added significant value from the conceptual study of July 2021 (I think), maybe the Ore sorting will drive the economics to a point a deal could be done. But again CB needs to prove this via results rather than nice words.
Why would anyone apply a value to the Zambia assets when we don’t know enough information to even come up with a crude value, history would actually suggest this is a liability.
Failed PR, as in the inability to drive the share price up to warrant strike price.
Would be naive to assume there will not be a further raise to take BR to PFS after missing out on warrants now expired. If is the case then to release any news now will be wasted if can be used for a new PR drive when market conditions are more favourable to keep any dilution to a minimum. That’s not to say they are holding back news from BR or Kakuyu as being nothing to report yet.
Just one theory if asking why.
Howeap... If by "failed PR strategy" you mean the company is unwilling to publish by RNS the true position regarding BR and the Zambia projects, then you have to ask yourself why is that ?
"expectations are now skewed from failed PR strategy, but it doesn’t mean BR is a dud"
"Company looks fairly well positioned to me and imo undervalued at present mc."
I agree with the above points but because of the very poor expectation management by CB and his inaccurate forward guidance (being kind there) its difficult for many to have a lot of confidence CB will convert all the potential / good fundamentals into actual SP increase..
In short all trust has now gone with CB but that doesnt mean all future potential here has now gone.
It seems difficult for the sp to climb when in the back of your mind you have Cb's failed promises / predictions. Hence why many are only going to believe it when they see it ...........in an RNS.
May be unkind, but probably true, I suspect the sp may rise if a new CEO was announced. That may free-up many to then focus on the good fundamentals here rather than CB's historical baggage .
CB likes his football analogy's - well the players have heard the manager's team talk far too many times and it doesnt work anymore. A new manager with different tactics, but keeping the same side, will see an improvement in performance :)
LW I agree expectations are now skewed from failed PR strategy, but it doesn’t mean BR is a dud,
I cant comment on the Mozgold deal was before my time, I understand Kalengwa needed a few million to develop that was never mentioned or xtract ever agreed to pay towards. So the deal with KPZ could well have broke down taking eureka with it. Kakuyu early signs are promising but until there is cash flow there will be doubters, granted.
A million a month from Manica ‘may’ very well be in reach if and when deeper sulphides are mined and plant capacity increased to bring down LOM at current throughput from all mineral reserves. But currently at about half that soon, so will be in line to be within DFS output figures.
Company looks fairly well positioned to me and imo undervalued at present mc.
Imagine if it was reality that BR was actually an economically viable Tier 1 copper project and not Bird Figment, or that it was reality that Manica was generating $12m revenue for XTR and that too wasn't just a cheap sales pitch. Imagine too if Kalengwa actually gave shareholders something and Eureka was worth something to shareholders. Imagine if after 4 years+ of all the diversified deals the SP actually increased to give shareholders something to cheers about. Imagine if the company had actually managed to strike a deal which actually gave shareholders a return.
It’s a successful diversifying strategy for that very reason LW.
Imagine if the company had only stuck to Zambia and ‘not’ diversified?
Diversify the picking of duds ? You can hardly call the fails as a successful diversifying strategy.
>>Many of the other CB failures seem to be in Zambia and for the life of me I can't see why CB keeps going down this route
Andrew ‘apparently,’ It’s wise to diversify 🤔
Tbf CB has delivered an income producing mine at manica . I think it would be unfair not to acknowledge that success
As for JN taking some credit, CB was the one who stopped JN from flipping the asset and selling manica and that seemed to trigger CB's decision to remove JN and step in.
Many of the other CB failures seem to be in Zambia and for the life of me I can't see why CB keeps going down this route esp when there is so much more potential at FB to exploit the transition and sulphide ore.
If a new CEO came in now I'm sure he or she, would re focus on manica and BR, and bin the zambia treasure hunts.
The fact is none have been successful under Bird's tenure despite him spending 10's of millions, I'm thinking ~30m+ in cash calls, of shareholders money, on his 'projects''
Manica was bought by Nelson!
I am only interested in what the company can deliver to its shareholders from the assets it currently holds and with the view of adding others under the current growth strategy. That is what is important going forward. As has been pointed out, many will fail, but some will win. Nature of the beast that is exploration.
It’s not the point I was commenting on or be inclined to. My point was >> I see no reason to not be confident in the company to deliver good news.
howezap. surely you must recognise that lw's list of failures, ****ups, and cb's grossly misleading public statements have destroyed cb's credibility which in turn has affected the sp.