The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Thanks Darren, good to know. Hope you are safe and well š
Stay safe Darren. I for one applaud firm and decisive leadership and it would appear that Daniel is showing himself to be that kind of leader. No hand wringing from me. Our society has gone soft which has allowed crime to flourish in the UK.
I think folks here are more curious whether there are signs in Ecuador that Scott The Rocks Caldwell is actually pulling his finger out and is on track to deliver more than just inaction and continued disappointment? I get the nagging feeling that we will still be here in 2025 enduring the pomposity of some posters willy waving their solg positions while displaying their contempt of other PIs as a badge of honour.
Hi Darren, Thanks for the prospective on Ecuador, stay safe.
I think he is referring to the Carnegie Ridge that extends from the GalƔpagos Islands which being volcanic throws up minerals etc and as that moves east hits the Andes and forced under them.
Morning all. I think it was add who asked what does the poster who lives in ecuador think of the situation. That got me thinking more generally as to how many posters on this bb actually live here? I do and I always thought there were at least 1 or 2 more? can anyone or posters confirm? Curiosity more than anything. As to my take on the last 3 or 4 days here, theres no denying its not been good, there was a bit of panic for a couple of days cos people generally didnt know or understand what exactly what was happening. According to my family and friends things should resume as normal as possible monday, lets hope! IMO Noboa is doing the right thing and cracking down on gangs and organised crime, long overdue imo. How does all this affect SSolgold at the moment? a few days disruption hopefully nothing more. So in conclusion to any pom or ozzy this may seem extreme , but people here just seem to suck it up and then get on with their lives!! Just as some info my ozzy mate came over the other night for a few beers and he was telling me again about when he hosted a big nob from solg at his place. Supposedely the seam from the andes is intersected with another seam which comes from the galapagos and the intersection is exactly where cascabel is !! Does anybody with more geological knowledge know about this? I hadnt heard this before. Supposedely this makes for a hotbed of minerals!! Can anyone confirm? Anyway enough of my insomnia rantings !
ATB
DK
Some good discussions on here today. Thought Iād entered the wrong thread for a moment.
Todays telegraph āThe EV fiasco has descended into farce, just ask Hertzā
Rental car giant disposing of the 20,000 milk floats it bought to great fanfare in 2021 because nobody wants to rent one. Writing off an eye watering $245m and replacing the stock with petrol cars
Well, I did say
In ground value can't be copied from one project to the next, but could give some indication what to expect.
Or benchmark if "only for full value" claims are justified :-)
Thank you for civilised discussion
I think the 'in ground value' metric is difficult. Too much variation between assets (depth, mine type, jurisdiction etc.).
e.g. 1Mt CuEq near surface in Australia is going to go for more than 1Mt CuEq at depth (requiring a block-cave) in Ecuador.
That said, I appreciate Warintza is not at PFS stage yet. So can't directly compare various project financials.
One advantage Solaris do appear to have - at least against current Cascabel PFS - is the largeāscale, highāgrade openāpit resource at Warintza Central. Suggested as the 'Indicative Starter Pitā.
Need Solgold to reflect an open-pit starter (Tandayama?) in an updated Cascabel PFS, reflecting other addendum benefits, and things will look better.
Thanks mog999 and TheItalian for the data-driven analysis.
See, we can have civilized and actually informative conversations on this BB, if A) we don't engage the muppets, and B) when we respond to each other we stick to a mutually respectful tone.
It's not actually that difficult if we just make a little effort to be decent.
Thank you Snowman, good read, I would like to see anything 0.10c/lb or higher, which IMHO is achievable via a constructive engagement with the majors.
Posted this link before, but this has some statistics about copper M&A deals for projects in different stages. 3-6c seems a reasonable assumption in our case.
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/copper-ma-2022-metrics-peak-on-green-energy-push
The metal mix is better at Alpala and it's Tier1 (so derisked albeit block cave etc) so don't think you can apply a direct read across. That said, Solaris assets are closer to infrastructure / existing mines and that carries some weight.
All in all, I think most expect the first offer to land in the early 30's. I can't see BHP letting it go for that nor any other interested parties. Whilst I would like to gain 100p for the lock stock and barrel, I think 70p is likely to be the highest achieveable now that we have 3bln shares in issue.
I'd take 70p a share but would be reluctant at anything less than 55p.
If the fair price, at the exploration stage is therefore around 4.1% of resource (not my 12.7%, ouch!), I can see why no buyers come out in the open. Solg made it clear over many years that they do not intend to sell at these levels, which makes me worry that after all they might try to advance the project to achieve at least a feasibility (8-9%) or development (10-20%) kind of valuation.
We might be here a bit longer in that case, sorry to even think about it...
Sorry one mistake i can see, the Solgold calculation is for Alpala only and NOT cascabel, so you can add Tandy onto it and if you want to add Porvenir to it, we come to a total of 17.6 MT CU eq @ between $0.03 to $0.06 in the ground value we get to arrange between 39p to 60p per share
There is that 30p point which I will gladly sell up and exit Solgoldā¦.
Mog, obviously I cannot trust myself with numbers! Perhaps I should stop pretending that I know what I am doing when I play with money.....
I'll try, a quick look at the figures for Warintza
Indicated = 3.45 CuEq
Inferred = 4.17 CuEq
for a 15% stake in this for $130M Canadian Dollors
which equates to approx $866M for 100%
Or $113M (cad) per 1MT CuEq
Cascabel (only)
Measured + Indicated 14MT CuEq
Inferred = 1.7MT CuEq
based on $113 M per 1MT cuEq
$1.7B Cad = Ā£1.047B
3B shares approx 33p
This excludes all other resources
I tried a very quick and very very dirty calculation taking into account also the 107mn inferred tonnes (see article https://www.mining.com/zijin-mining-invests-97-million-in-solaris-resources-for-a-15-stake/)
If I am not too far off, the ballpark is that Zijin paid around 12.7% of the total resource. You guys should run the numbers and share what you get.
Now, if I apply the same value to the SOLG resource as of the last official statement, I get a very ambitious but not entirely unattainable price of 102p.
Nowadays even a third of that would be something as far as I am concerned.
Separately, not sure if you saw but I thanked you and addicknt for the updates on lack of replies from SOLG re: IPA/Govt relationship.
The posts didn't last long as whole threads have been removed due to the usual disruption here.
But, thanks again...
Still holding Bozi, so haven't lost anything, yet. I think I am no worse off than other PIs who invested here expecting a sale. Aren't you holding solg in the expectation of a sale?
Hi TheItalian
"Did anyone here calculated by proxy what our valuation would be based on the Solaris transaction?"
Not that I've seen. I suspect the poster who likes to make unsupported statements as post titles has no idea on the readacross to a SOLG valuation.
I will make an attempt if I find some time, but not too close to the details of Warintza.
A decent article on recent events (apologies if already posted)
https://www.mining.com/web/mining-industry-sees-a-way-to-navigate-narco-crisis-in-ecuador/
Sorry if already discussed. Did anyone here calculated by proxy what our valuation would be based on the Solaris transaction?
Eloro - OK, you can admit it now. Which of Scott's previous companies were you burned on?
Or to put it another way, how many shirts did you lose betting on a takeover last year?
Hi RICHR...in essence I agree with you, but it might attract unwarranted attention...
Mining Executives have been kidnapped and/or murdered in the past...