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What are the chinese prepared to pay for a much large advanced project?
tick tock tick tock
Sorry if already discussed. Did anyone here calculated by proxy what our valuation would be based on the Solaris transaction?
A decent article on recent events (apologies if already posted)
https://www.mining.com/web/mining-industry-sees-a-way-to-navigate-narco-crisis-in-ecuador/
Hi TheItalian
"Did anyone here calculated by proxy what our valuation would be based on the Solaris transaction?"
Not that I've seen. I suspect the poster who likes to make unsupported statements as post titles has no idea on the readacross to a SOLG valuation.
I will make an attempt if I find some time, but not too close to the details of Warintza.
Separately, not sure if you saw but I thanked you and addicknt for the updates on lack of replies from SOLG re: IPA/Govt relationship.
The posts didn't last long as whole threads have been removed due to the usual disruption here.
But, thanks again...
I tried a very quick and very very dirty calculation taking into account also the 107mn inferred tonnes (see article https://www.mining.com/zijin-mining-invests-97-million-in-solaris-resources-for-a-15-stake/)
If I am not too far off, the ballpark is that Zijin paid around 12.7% of the total resource. You guys should run the numbers and share what you get.
Now, if I apply the same value to the SOLG resource as of the last official statement, I get a very ambitious but not entirely unattainable price of 102p.
Nowadays even a third of that would be something as far as I am concerned.
I'll try, a quick look at the figures for Warintza
Indicated = 3.45 CuEq
Inferred = 4.17 CuEq
for a 15% stake in this for $130M Canadian Dollors
which equates to approx $866M for 100%
Or $113M (cad) per 1MT CuEq
Cascabel (only)
Measured + Indicated 14MT CuEq
Inferred = 1.7MT CuEq
based on $113 M per 1MT cuEq
$1.7B Cad = £1.047B
3B shares approx 33p
This excludes all other resources
Mog, obviously I cannot trust myself with numbers! Perhaps I should stop pretending that I know what I am doing when I play with money.....
There is that 30p point which I will gladly sell up and exit Solgold….
Sorry one mistake i can see, the Solgold calculation is for Alpala only and NOT cascabel, so you can add Tandy onto it and if you want to add Porvenir to it, we come to a total of 17.6 MT CU eq @ between $0.03 to $0.06 in the ground value we get to arrange between 39p to 60p per share
If the fair price, at the exploration stage is therefore around 4.1% of resource (not my 12.7%, ouch!), I can see why no buyers come out in the open. Solg made it clear over many years that they do not intend to sell at these levels, which makes me worry that after all they might try to advance the project to achieve at least a feasibility (8-9%) or development (10-20%) kind of valuation.
We might be here a bit longer in that case, sorry to even think about it...
The metal mix is better at Alpala and it's Tier1 (so derisked albeit block cave etc) so don't think you can apply a direct read across. That said, Solaris assets are closer to infrastructure / existing mines and that carries some weight.
All in all, I think most expect the first offer to land in the early 30's. I can't see BHP letting it go for that nor any other interested parties. Whilst I would like to gain 100p for the lock stock and barrel, I think 70p is likely to be the highest achieveable now that we have 3bln shares in issue.
I'd take 70p a share but would be reluctant at anything less than 55p.
Posted this link before, but this has some statistics about copper M&A deals for projects in different stages. 3-6c seems a reasonable assumption in our case.
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/copper-ma-2022-metrics-peak-on-green-energy-push
See, we can have civilized and actually informative conversations on this BB, if A) we don't engage the muppets, and B) when we respond to each other we stick to a mutually respectful tone.
It's not actually that difficult if we just make a little effort to be decent.
Thank you Snowman, good read, I would like to see anything 0.10c/lb or higher, which IMHO is achievable via a constructive engagement with the majors.
I think the 'in ground value' metric is difficult. Too much variation between assets (depth, mine type, jurisdiction etc.).
e.g. 1Mt CuEq near surface in Australia is going to go for more than 1Mt CuEq at depth (requiring a block-cave) in Ecuador.
That said, I appreciate Warintza is not at PFS stage yet. So can't directly compare various project financials.
One advantage Solaris do appear to have - at least against current Cascabel PFS - is the large‐scale, high‐grade open‐pit resource at Warintza Central. Suggested as the 'Indicative Starter Pit’.
Need Solgold to reflect an open-pit starter (Tandayama?) in an updated Cascabel PFS, reflecting other addendum benefits, and things will look better.
Thanks mog999 and TheItalian for the data-driven analysis.
Thank you for civilised discussion
In ground value can't be copied from one project to the next, but could give some indication what to expect.
Or benchmark if "only for full value" claims are justified :-)
Some good discussions on here today. Thought I’d entered the wrong thread for a moment.