RE: Crazy small DMA trades last half hour.24 Feb 2021 17:32
@Qalibashi, we are all frustrated but many shares are suffering, and if you look at OMI it's crazy what happened in the last three days. All in all, in such volatile times it's more important than ever to keep some cash and use the retraces to buy if you believe in the company. Personally, and considering that SOLG and OMI are my current largest holdings, I think we are due some stress over the next months but they will both come good. GLA.
Quady, while the price will find a new equilibrium and in fact I already bought some and will probably buy more on this crash, let's not sugarcoat any of this. My book has crash by 150k courtesy of SOLG this morning, so I struggle to see any positives in the current f***up, other than having been careful keeping some cash available.
To be honest, I am trying to laugh at the situation because I would just like to scream and burst into tears. We could have put the sale sign on in 2017, we could have probably sold for 50-60p, levels we have never seen despite all the beautiful forecasts.
Some shares lend themselves to TA better than others, and to be honest SOLG is not the most TA friendly share.
Now, while the short and medium term positive channels I described on the 14th Jan have been broken down since then and now we have a dominant downward channel, we have been in a "primary" W since March 2020.
Since you like to be entertained in TA matters and constructively comment on it every single time one tries to offer a technical view, I think we need to start with the fractal nature of Elliott waves, which means that in this W3 we are going to look for a 5-step "intermediate" (w(1) to w(5) waves, each of which would be broken down into smaller 5-step "minor" w1 to w5 waves. I think we are currently in the minor w4 of the intermediate w(1), and the 29th Jan trough that was supposed to be the end of the w4 and start of the w5 has not held today, so we have to be ready for a rerate to 22-24p, which hopefully might hold. Past that we would be in a w5 with target of at least the October 2020 peak of 44p-ish, and following that, completed the intermediate w(1) we would be due for a w(2) fall again. All in all, s****y times......
@redknight1 and all good posters, No doubt you made many correct statements, and the result is clearly in the current share price, to our collective displeasure. NM thought he could defend SOLG from a cheap takeover, but the medicine he administered on the company and the big shareholders had become worse than the condition he was trying to cure, and he had to go. Right now the best result we can hope is the holding of the 29th Jan trough.
RE: Twitter post from a well followed chartist01 Feb 2021 12:31
The 65p target is just the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, and we are likely just starting a w3 move. I think the chartist is correct and I have the same results even if I used slightly different tools. Even the breakout level is about right because that's the level we reach if the current downtrend channel is broken. Bar any truly critical events, the charts are as clear as Midday as ever.
I think that the issue is a bit different. investors cannot (officially) collude to manipulate markets. It's not an issue of private investors taking on hedge funds, it's an issue of collusion and market manipulation.
Good morning all. While there are some SOLG-specific causes for the price weakness, the entire mining sector is under pressure. For good overall performance, you can have a look at s h a r e p r i c e s d o t c o m / s e c t o r s / m i n i n g and see some price action correlation not only between different companies but for the sector as a whole. To be honest it just looks weak and I would not be surprised if it dropped another 20%, back to the October 2020 levels. In hindsight, the rally from November 2020 seems a bit unjustified to me, hope I am wrong.
All in all, it should always be fair and wise to assume that markets are predominantly rational. NM's departure does not move the dial. With NM in charge or gone, we are still waiting for the same fundamental pieces of news and both the majors and Ecuador itself will be the ones calling the shots when the right time comes. I think many here have just made too much of NM's leaving, and while I can appreciate that each has a different risk appetite, I stay long and wait. Best luck to all.
@cadell, this is a time leading to potential high volatility, and not all shareholders are comfortable with the risk this entails. Whether one liked how NM steered the SOLG ship, we more or less knew what the narrative was. Now, we don't and we will not know for some time. If BHP and NCM have it their way, the share price might get diluted down the low 20s, and of course if we get funding for production or establish a second large resource or a third major shows us a high bid, we can rerate upwards, but until then we are aiming for more uncertainty. One has to stay balanced if a lot of hard earned money is involved.
Some TA considerations to cheer you up14 Jan 2021 10:42
Just trying to stick to actual market price observations:
1) We are in a short term, slightly upward trending channel, and have been going up and down within it; the bottom is around 32p and it's possible we might test it one last time before bouncing up again; if we bounce we need to break 40p to confirm a further move north; if we break 32p south, the next meaningful Fibonacci level is around 23p so let's hope that does not materialize;
2) The short term channel is manifesting within a larger, medium term upward trending channel, which is describing an intermediate Elliot wave cycle starting in March 2020 at 10p, itself a likely W3 part of the primary wave cycle that started in December 2015; the short term channel level of 32p meets the medium term channel around 32p at the end of January, so even form a medium term price dynamic point of view we would be due a bounce from February onwards, ad this time the upper boundary of the long term channel is around 55p;
3) Now, the medium term channel manifest itself within a long term channel, also upward trending but less steep than the medium term channel and based on primary Elliot wave development; we are in the middle of the long term channel and based on #1 and #2 above we should be moving up and again the upper channel limit is around 55p.
About the tax implications, SOLG has created four subsidiaries, and the challenge is likely to be about how to spin off the four subsidiaries, possibly under a "new" Solgold", after a takeover price or a JV have been agreed for an "Alpala-only" old Solgold. This resolves the tax issue, allows SOLG to finally monetize on Alpala, and funds the other projects. The real problem is not resolved though, no major is putting their hands up and proposing a "fair" bid for Alpala.