RE: Invested but not as bright as others23 Jan 2024 13:46
My humble opinion ( from SteveE60's message):
The only parameter that might suggest that we are at the bottom is the price being at the bottom of the long term declining channel (which I am sure you can all plot on a chart!). Other than that, we appear to be in a strong bearish mode with short term and long term indicators still not showing a reversal. On that basis I am holding any powder dry at present, even though I can see the very attractive call for entering the market at these levels, and if I was not already heavily invested I would probably start building a position from here, with optionality to average down if necessary.
The SOLG price correlation to CDXJ has been higher than the average in the last 12 months and is particularly higher in the last month, which might suggest that, using Warren Buffet's parlance, we are just being carried by the tidal forces of the wider market at the moment.
About the price being manipulated, of course it is but that is the very nature of markets and is amplified by algorithmic capabilities and especially for such illiquid stocks where speculation is particularly easy if you are committed enough, so I would not encourage any specific conspiracy theories. Is it possible that potential suitors are keeping the price at bay? I am sure they could but I suspect they don't bother.
I still believe that the SR links the technical plan for the reduced Cascabel with a financing arrangement, which in my opinion is why it's taking so long, I believe that in the background there must be a lot of back and forth about the various parameters that will eventually determine if the IRR is attractive or not. I had forgotten about Blanca, but in hindsight I think it makes sense that it comes into the Cascabel and SR picture if they can factor it in. Certainly as BBG suggested, if we get an RNS about Blanca before the SR is published it could be a very good outcome.
So as a result, when the relevant news come out, the price will move rapidly, and my price assumption is that we will have to be ready for a quick rerating with a spike materializing within 4-6 weeks, where we hold hope to sell if we want out.
Just my two cents, GLA!