Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
BHP and NCM have been privy to restricted information in the past, yhey don't need to be on the current DR.
I thought it was fairly clear that "advancing" Cascabel meant bringing the project to a state of readiness so that plan-A we could sell it, or plan-B JV it, or plan-C do it ourselves at great cost and dilution.
The negotiation with the government and the updated technical plan for extraction are two of the most critical aspects that hopefully the strategic review will clarify.
In the current state of affairs, no buyer is understandably in a hurry to show a bid, and this will remain the case for as long as we insist on trying to obtain full value for the shareholders; I believe NM lost that bet at least 4-5 years and we have little leverage to force a higher price, especially as we cannot afford to get into 2024 without an agreement.
The only smart and fast option to monetize is to negotiate with those in the data room for a reasonably low price. The price will only get lower as we run lower on money.
2023 is the make or break year I think.
Which WAS the case for Jiangxi.....
sorry for the typo
Snowman, companies and people operate under NDA when they need to discuss information that is not publicly available, which was not the case for Jiangxi. If you look back at the press release dated 23rd November, it is stated that Jiangxi have agreed to buy their many shares "subject to the completion of due diligence". The material they evaluated may or may not be the same that you and I have access to, however it's great that they were satisfied and proceeded with the investment.
Now, if the conversation is about selling SOLG or spinning off parts of it, there are other more strategic considerations like private conversations with the Ecuadorian government, the deeper know-how and the current R&D about the resource and how to extract it, other NDA-covered conversations with other interested parties, possible partnerships, all things that would not make it to us via an RNS but are very material for someone who will invest many millions, THEN we are in the domain of the "live Data room" I asked Scott about and he was kind enough to answer in a rarely straight manner.
So, long story short, you can bet that at any given time there have been people talking to SOLG under NDA as all companies do, BUT the live data room is a different animal and if there are multiple parties active in it, then it's a good sign, and IMHO it also tells us that there is some critical content that needs to be sorted, most likely referring to the topics mentioned in slide 5 of the June presentation.
My best guess is that the topics listed in the "Advancing and derisking Cascabel" are the hot potatoes that any incoming buyer wants to see sorted out before putting a bid in.
Having filtered all of them anyway, I seem to enjoy a better experience on this BB, you lot could try and do the same. It would benefit everyone.
I will join that party, been looking forward to it for 6 years! If you source the mermaids I will pay for the beers!
If I had to stay in my fantasy world and attempt a positive view on such a pointless investor meeting, I might even speculate that it was deliberate because a buyer in the background is trying to mop up as many share as possible at a low price, before the corporate event is announced at a higher price. But I trust that this is pure fantasy, I am just deflated really.
Ouch, this is such an own goal, dull, uninformative, and utyerly pointless....
Realistically the presentation will be uploaded AFTER Scott has gone through it at the investor meeting. I would not stress about it.
Rather, just fantasizing, I wander if the price is being walked down in preparation of the meeting, to later show a positive response to Scott's presentation. Just a fantasy out of boredom really, all mining is down and we are no exception.
GLA, let's hope today the dial gets moved a bit!
Not sure and we are an easy one to manipulate anyway, but since we had overshot the EMA 50, it looks like we just retraced to that level now.
DK, I don't recall you making the same remarks, for balance, on the 8th June or the 13th June (when the market moved upwards with similar force). The share price is just moving up and down within a longer wave and this is just short-term volatility.
Chill, we are due important updates and these movements are nothing.
DK, raw materials were under pressure due to China's growth possibly cooling off. You should keep an eye on iron ore, which is a good indicator, besides looking at the majors. Yesterday GLEN, BHP, RIO, AAL, etc etc, were all down. Volume in SOLG has been low in the last week, it would have not taken much to move the price.
Obviously not nice, also considering that technically now the SAR has turned negative again.
I don't want to sound negative, but a new website probably means just a new design and navigation. Now a new design may be more conducive to conveying information better, but if the point of the new website is that there is new relevant information for investors, all they need is an RNS, not a new website.
S-A, I am definitely with you on that.
If the price is reflecting a new bullish view on SOLG, I think we need to reach 21.50 / 22.00 to confirm a sustained uptrend. So with the investor meet event and more buying going on, next week might turn out to be an interesting time and I am looking forward to that.
Signed up and submitted 3 straight questions about how active is the Data room, target valuation and their expectations about shareholders in the very diverse book.
Scott seems a bit less cryptic than his predecessors, but perhaps it's just his enthusiasm and a sense that he does not need to stay in the weeds for too long, so it might fade if a sale does not happen soon.
GLA
Further to my earlier rants about waves and time forecasts, it is usually postulated that the amplitude of waves is proportional to their length, therefore, based on my previous forecast of upcoming price spike in October 2023 and April 2024, the projected prices at those times based on previous waves amplitudes, would be 25.5ish for October 2023 and 30.2ish for April 2024.
Quite depressing really, LTHs would hope to be at a higher price at those times.
There you go, you read it here first!
Parabolic SAR positive, supertrend still negative but getting closer to reversing, RSI kind of neutral but definitely more upside than downside, ROC(40) in negative territory but trending upwards.
I would say that the market is not going to go lower, and if I was not horribly long already I would top up in size.
Jut my thoughts, DYOR.
@Bozi, waves are a very well known but yet vastly misunderstood and largely underestimated topic. Understanding the Y axis is only half of the trading challenge, the x axis being equally difficult to manage. Do some reading, it's fascinating stuff, and it applies to all kinds of natural, social and economic phenomena.
I would rather find comfort in number crunching than BB gibberishing.....
So, running close prices starting from 10 Feb 2006 (earliest data from Yahoo Finance), using the Excel Data Analysis pack, I ran the Histogram function.
The data returns relevant waves of 37.88 days. 26.14 days, 20.66 days, 8.14 days, 4.23 days.
This corresponds, in calendar days, to 53.03, 36.6, 28.92, 11.4, 5.92.
If I take the longest wave (53.03 calendar days) and I plot multiple intervals of 53.03 days, like 53.03*2 or *3 or *n, I get a number of theoretical harmonics that should correspond to actual recorded price movements, within an acceptable interval.
As it turns out, I could get 24 such peaks matching the theoretical dates, within around 1% tolerance.
The four major peaks we have seen in the last meaningful years (April 2017, October 2018, October 2020, April 2022), all fall in the pattern, and the long term implication is that the peaks are distanced at either 1.50/1.54 or 1.99 years from one another.
Soooo, if there is a rhythm hidden in the SOLG price oscillations, there are two upcoming dates that might result in a relevant peak, either 1.50/1.54 or 1.99 years from the last one.
That would be 12/10/2023 (=1.50) to 26/10/2023 (1.54), or 7/4/2024 (=1.99).
If I had to fantasize in Elliott terms, I would go as far as guessing that October 2023 might be a W3 peak, and April 2024 a W5 peak. Who knows though, just trying to rationalize this madness......
GLA