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And by the way I do believe in the difference between a £1000 punt and a sizable investment, requires a different mindset, risk attitude, commitment and understanding.
Then you should stick to buying Apple and Tesla shares, methink.
Of course I am not ok with the price dropping from 40p to 14p, however I don't analyze companies outside of the macro context and the overall industry dynamics.
If you did the same you might find that particularly after April 2022 exploration and junior mining has been priced down aggressively, the tide has not been in our favour, and in many other juniors' favour for that matter. We reached 40p+ when the tide was higher, and as Warren Buffet said, high tide lifts all boats.
If I may ask, how much have you got invested here? My best guess is that I and others who complain less than you have significant multiples invested and seem to be less stressed out about it.
Which, in my opinion and about the topic of SOLG's management not doing anything, says more about those who make that comment than about SOLG's management.
@Dinner, as per SOLG's 20th July PR, the termsheet has to be approved by the Ecuadorian government. We have not had confirmation of the approval yet.
A BNamericas article from July 20th reads; "In the remainder of July, the Ministry of Finance should issue an opinion certifying that the project will not affect public finances, and at the same time, the Energy portfolio must announce an agreement in which the amount of royalties is legalized. agreed for the project, Santos told BNamericas."
An article in Primicias reads:
The Minister of Energy, Fernando Santos, said on July 19, 2023 that “the transition to the production phase of the Cascabel mine means a positioning of Ecuador as an important producer and exporter of copper .” The signing of the pre-contractual negotiation document will allow the process to continue towards the change of exploitation phase in the consequent replacement of the mining exploitation contract of the Cascabel project , said Santos.
According to the Ministry of Energy, construction of the mine will begin in 2025 and will enter into operation in 2030 .
On balance, I would imply that the government ratification is just a procedural concern, and the government has agreed the termsheet to make sure that SOLG (or whoever buys SOLG) delivers the mine and the agreed economics.
If this BB represents what the market thinks, I think we have proven that there is no such thing as the wisdom of the crowds...
@Eloro, and then what, once you have cast your rebel vote?
Given that the company's main objective is to sell, but to do that we need to advance the project until it becomes viable to the buyer, and given who the big shareholders are even if SC goes, who will follow if SC falls?
Do you really think that we as small shareholders have achieved some new guarantee or sense of security that our interest is going to be more protected?
You must not be very well versed in corporate development matters, and sound like an unlucky capricious punter who put a few k down without really understanding the moving parts and the risks.
Aand another one for the bin....
Come on guys, "things" are not clear only to the extent that we are dealing with a South American government particularly at the wrong time, and with possible investors who have not yet felt the urgency of buying us.
It has become clear by now that NM thought he could sell it but did not do the right things and in fact alienated stakeholders on all fronts, and it's clear that the positive disruption that SC is trying to deliver is based on making the project feasible and economical in the real world, where the probability of either finding a buyer, a JV partner or else raise money for ourselves is higher.
The last thing you want to do is to vote SC out before he can bring the strategy HE HAS EXPLAINED to fruition. The only change we need, is a project that is objectively feasible and economical, and it was not under NM or DC. What would we get is SC is pushed out, other than another setback, lack of clarity and direction, and more exposure to the vultures who are just waiting to get us when we are too weak to negotiate?
I think, as usual, that on this BB we end up always adding too much interpretation to what we are told. Since the primary objective of the strategic review is to find a buyer or worst case a partner with deep pockets interested in a JV, naturally they will be engaging anyone who is happy to engage with us, and naturally they would not exclude the existing shareholders, who to date remain the most plausible partners. What is good is Scott sharing this detail, even (interpretation) one could maliciously think that he did it to stir interest with other parties, like the Chinese for example.
SolGold continues with a strategic review process as it looks to shave at least US$1 billion of the initial development cost of its Cascabel copper-gold project in Ecuador, chief executive Scott Caldwell told at the 2023 Gold Forum Americas in Colorado Springs, Colorado, while B2Gold is looking at a smaller development at Gramalote in Antioquia, Argentina, chief executive Clive Johnson told; Caldwell aims to announce the new vision for Cascabel and an updated resource estimate in the March quarter of 2024. The 2022 prefeasibility study outlined an average production of 132,000tpy of copper, 358,000ozpa of gold and 1Moz/y of silver.
"We would like to keep the initial capital cost well below $1.2-1.3 billion rather than the initial capital cost of $2.7 billion. It is lower throughput, mining higher grade material from the same resource."
"We have updated the resource with the drilling that has been done to date, the same flow sheet with little tweaks like probably not building a copper concentrate pipeline to the sea. We are excited about it as it also reduces the development schedule", said Caldwell.
B2Gold has just announced that it will buy out AngloGold Ashanti's stake in Gramalote after the partners failed to find a buyer for a bargain $20 million initial payment. The company believes that with just one company to satisfy, it can reduce the scale and scope of the project to something cheaper and more profitable.
It was never looked at as a smaller mine because two substantial producers needed probably 150,000ozpa minimum to each of our accounts, so the mine had to be 350,000-400,000ozpa. The push was always to see if we could exploit a 4Moz resource of low-grade material and make it work.
"If we don't need 400,000ozpa to satisfy two companies, what if it's 200,000ozpa for a single company? We believe that if we look at a smaller project, it can drop the capital dramatically with a smaller mill and lower our environmental footprint as well" said Johnson.
For SolGold, a lower initial capital may help it fund a buyer or development partner. To this end, in addition to meeting with copper and gold producers, Caldwell is also looking to repair relationships with two of the company's main shareholders: BHP and Newcrest Mining.
They were believed to be unhappy with how SolGold finally merged with Cornerstone Capital Resources to consolidate ownership of Cascabel in one company, which ultimately resulted in Caldwell leading the company. They both voted against me at the shareholder meeting last year, so we have been working hard to improve those relationships. I am meeting with Newmont here, and I hope they really look at the data before they decide what they want to do" said Caldwell.
Https://www.ft.com/content/7a1db3cf-a61b-4ef5-b90d-ea98fe530295
Tesla, I am as sour as you about SOLG, however the entire sector is down. In the last two years miners, both major and juniors across production and exploration have peaked in April and suffered the rest of the time.
There are SOLG-specific circumstances that justify the 14p, but equally if we were in a bullish stage for the sector, SOLG could easily be at twice the price.
So are COBR, ECR, OMI, and others, all exploration companies with specific issues that have been lifted when the tide was high and had a crash landing when the tide came down.
You could well just sit back and wait for a mining reversal and we could discuss the same SOLG fundamentals at a price point we would be happy to sell at.
About the technicals, I think that right now they don't tell us anything about the direction.
While true that we have not lost in the last few sessions, the trend is still negative if seen on a weekly or monthly basis. We need to break 16.2p to have positive SAR, and 17.3p to go through the supertrend.
Long way to go I am afraid, but it can change in a minute as we know...
Well, since some here are always generous with opinions, perhaps we could talk about iron ore's influence over copper with regards to economic cycles, and what we can expect from copper based on how iron ore is performing?
It must be more interesting that heat pumps.....
Wow, I joined the BB to discuss shares and investment, we have ended up arguing about heat pumps. Given the advanced age of some here, shall we also introduce the subject of adult diapers, which might be relevant sooner than a SOLG takeover? I can share a link to get started! https://www.parentgiving.com/blogs/everything-incontinence/best-adult-diapers
Until we get different numbers from SOLG, I am pricing ENSA for the official 14mln CuEq, 0.08 USD per Pounds of Cu, which is an average valuation for takeovers at the feasibility stage, and that gives me a valuation of GBP 1.975 Bln and a share price of 65.8p.
Given the general circumstances (country discount, SOLG's history, whatever else), I am inclined to apply a USD 0.05 valuation as an exploration stage, returning an ENSA value of 1.235 Bln and a share price at 41.1p.
Make what you want of it.
Https://www.ft.com/content/3b8b1fd0-9c79-4a23-81ef-32ab13f666d8
@Shipright, was it on the good side or the bad side?
A constructive discussion over the content of the RNS is highly appreciated