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English patient, who said anything about forward PE. SLP has traded on an average PE ratio (not forward PE) of 5.26 on average over 5 years based on figures provided by the London stock exchange. Unless they do something with the cash, in about 9 years there isn't a lot left to grind up again and remove, life ends in 9 years without doing something that costs money and profits, do you think with a limited life like that that the market will give this a high PE ratio? Forward PE ratios are based on what just one analyst thinks of future profits and he is guessing RH which ranges from 6000-29,000 in just over a year. There is a possibility of 140p+ here as it stands as i don't think the majority cares about the DCF calculations 177p or cash pile. This is about to release results that many know already so people are buying and the shift will bring in technical traders watching the down trend which DGAFF about valuations. YTD RH is $22.5k, its average for the last 3 months has been $18.2k. On this $18.2k Rh and using an average of the last 3 months for the rest i get a profit of $104m eps 38c or 27p so 140p+ current PE ratio 3.58.
In the mid 80s this one is a no-brainer. It should have never gone to that level in a rational world. But since humans make decisions (mostly) emotional, so be it and I took good advantage of it.
Say 132p from there? What's not to like? Nothing at all.
Thank you very much Mr Market.
Hi Stoodio,
100 it is then! ( I had that as the second target to beat - but didn't expect it :)
On a similar note, a 103 close tomorrow is fine with me.
And if it's as perky tomorrow as today, then 105/106 is also on the cards.
Should the SP take a day off tomorrow then it can still be regarded as bullish to neutral mood, even if it closes down at 98 (but defo no lower IMO :)
Where the close is tonight, is still in the trend vicinity that two previous occasions in previous weeks gave up the ghost (but were at a higher SP) and returned to the downtrend.
(Hence no lower than a 98 close is acceptable tomorrow - but no lower!)
All this week up to Friday has a bullish bias - it's Monday next week, that's anybody's guess; although if July and Aug had performed as in previous years, then I wouldn't expect much from the SP in Sept anyway - but all that has turned on it's head, so it's all up for grabs for September this year, IMO.
Still too early to get the first meaningful trend in the bag, but the Ultra Short term trend ('Minor trend') is now firmly bullish, will do in the meantime :)
Need to take the high ground on the topside of the 200 trend eventually, and is the ultimate battle plan aim, and holding it to win the war
- and that's 108 (for starters) in my book (110 to others on 'raw' data).
No one wins, and there is no victory until the 200 gets taken down
- it's only single-digit pence away from tonight's close - but it's (200) still rising daily, so no time to lose).
Velo. What we saying here then sunny jim. You're never too busy for meeeeeee. :)
As I’ve said before on this board, the 20/21 EPS is easily worked out (barring any accounting adjustments to the FV of assets or similar) from the last four quarterly RNSs. The interest for me in the year end release will be the commentary rather than the financials. I expect it to be cautious and understated as ever (but who knows...)
Stockopedia's EPS of 37c is not too far off the performance over the last year. It is in cents rather than pence.
Stocko shows the estimated EPS as 37.4 for this year. Obviously, this might be a rather optimistic view, given the setback last Q.
Might explain the (irrational) selloff (or not, ha!).
But that would bring it into the 200p range as well.
Monday will be interesting.
I'm with bangrak on this one. Anything is possible but if his historic p/e is about right i wouldn't hope for any more suddenly.
Cor blimey, the co r ru p tion of the AIM market :)
Quite happy to take a P/E of 5.262 as ballpark :)
bangrak - you should check your research. Forward p/e is 3.0 and the company is not a mine, it's a collection of operational retreatment processing plants. It is true it does have open cast mining project but that is still in exploration phase.
The london stock exchange site under fundamentals and ratios gives you the last 5 years PE ratios, for SLP it's 5.26, that's what you folks have decided over quite a few years so that's what i use. I see no reason to use more, it's SA its mine life is limited, even the TTM is 5.47. Not my rules these are yours. eps today 25-28p target 5.26x that.
And whats the reason for using a P/E of 4 pls? Really depends what multiple you see fair. A P/E of 4 is cheap in my books. 7-8 more likely, which gets you into the 200p ballpark (with an EPS of 25.3)
Also amazed that Liberum Capital and ST at Investor's Chronicle got away with stating share price was worth 200p in May/June 2021.
So based on a cash adjusted p/e of 4 ...the share price is worth 127.7p.
(See I can do the same calculations and it is not so outlandish!)
Sold for 15% profit, not a bad weeks hold. Resistance at 102 - 103p area and near results so respect the old adage, buy on rumour, sell on news.
I am also dipping my toe in some aim stocks, small miners etc as well as SLP, (and also (JLP).
Its been a rollercoaster. Companies look good, their share price just drifts down, (or drops rapidly as S Africa riots).
Then some good news comes out, and the share price plummets..... wtf??
Then boom, up 17% in the last 5 days
Nothings changed, the fundamentals are still the same, the market in these is just massively volatile.
I initially bought just off both peaks in SLP back in May/June, but have since topped up in the valleys in July/Aug with bigger buys - still in the red, but only just.
This is not for the faint hearted!
morning
I was disappointed with the drop having took a stake on the strength of IC articles. To be fair though it really swings back here doesn't it. Interesting to read the posts about valuing Rh. Positive about the case here.
Previous post should show 2021 Revenue of $207.8m...
Results next Monday. Full year is about 2021 Revenue £207.8m vs 2020 Revenue $114.09m. Up 82%.
Eps 2020 10.44p vs 2021 Eps 25.3p. Up 142%.
Let's see how ST values the company...
Let's f kin go. Straight up over a quid. Who said it?
Some schmuck.
Sorry caffeine kicked in too early. Ill crawl back in my hole.
For starters.
Sorry about the 'ramping' haha. Clowns. Meant in the nicest possible way :)
Guys lots of respect for your efforth and time spent after this share... I am not going to enter in any debate on pgm market, PE, eps, share price, fundamental or technical analyses. Just saying that my Valneva covid19 vaccine share is up 50% in a week and more to come....my interest in pgm is on Zimplat and in with a small profit awaiting imminent result to sell on a sp spike if will happen.... I am. Ot willing to await the chip shortage issue to be resolved or the EV green revution not to materialise or else, to. Ake a profit out of my investment. Right now I see Steel an interesting investment space for 2 obvious reasons, one been spending infrastructures, ghe other been China cutting steel production due to pollution and high iron ore high prices, covid19 vaccine and biotect is still interesting investing in, but one has to trade carefully as some company have already reached their best sell by date. Back on pgm and in particular chip shortage... I would really like to know how much recent cuts in car production is due to lack of chips availability or lack in demand. Anyhow for pgm related shares imo is likely that after the recent rollercoaster rise and retrace, they will be trading in range for a while, that could be 1 or 2 years....
I'm musing over 120 being "fair play for the current situation" in the coming weeks/months should the chip situation and metals pricing show no improvement. Some say the chip situation will resolve "soon", others from next year.
Yet media reports last week quoted one manufacturer saying they had been told their semi conductor chip orders are on a 12-month back-order waiting list, so the article concluded that the situation with chips will resolve slowly over - . . . years
- before full needs are met on a regular basis.
I think SLP has suffered worse than THS and JLP because of that Q4 update.
(Net profit fell by 64% in Q4 alone).
And also PGM production fell 6.5% in that Q4 period too, with "the quality of the feed" from client mines dropping, meaning fewer ounces from the ore it processes - thus leading to the next issue - raised costs!
- And one thing SLP is known for - is as a superb low-cost operator. That now looks under some threat should the poor quality feed continue into H1 and beyond.
Add on the other external issues and the market has responded negatively.
I took fright after the ATH intraday high of 148 or so, was reached in spring, and didn't look like it would return there soon, and then feeling uncomfortable with so much of an overweight position (especially as I took on additional positions in a cyclical/seasonal experiment at the same time) that for peace of mind I have been 'top-slicing' furiously to bring my overweight holdings down to manageable levels and thus lock-in some of the profits.
120 is my re-test area.
But feel happier having banked profits, and now feel lighter, slimmed down.
Q1 will inevitably be compared unfavourably once again to a now comparative high-level Q4
- but Q1 will still be seriously higher than Q1 last year, as will Q2 too, should the current metals price area hold. So this new 21/22 trading year should be okay.
I have no real fears for the full results next Monday (SLP's reputation as a high margin operator is seen in Q4 despite the fall in Q4 profit; SLP's profit margin in Q4 is higher than most others)
- it might only suffer when the media compares recent Q4 performance and any info in the results appertaining to the new current year of Q1 (didn't read of an end to the raw poor quality feed coming into SLP).
Rhodium is still undersupplied in most analysts opinion, so despite automotive lay-off's due to chip shortages, Rh may yet come back in price somewhat (and save the day?)
" Anyway on to this week, I'm expecting, as ever :) for us to break right our up and over the squid mark. "
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Hi Stoodio,
Yes, only 4 trading days left until the results are published next Monday morning, so SP looking like it wants to run up bullishly to that day before the results.
I disappear up north from mid week, for the next fortnight-ish, so will not be around for the results (so a quick word after this post on the expected results)
As a characteristic of SLP, I've associated it as a stock that performs to the maxim: Buy On The Rumour And Sell On The News, in that over the past 5 years or so, the Q4 update comes out at the v end of July (and they've always been good to excellent) with the result that August became a knock-your-socks-off month in SP performance expectations of the full results in early September.
And almost always, after a superb August, the SP underperformed by the close of September - after receiving the good results!
This year, due to events outside SLP's control, the SP in July and August (usually superb performing months SP-wise) got blown out of the water to smithereens, with a big game-show booming: Uhh-ohh! miss this year.
So might that August rise be postponed until the results actually come out?
- or will events unfold as they usually do in September?
Or will the next 4 days 'be it'?