Member Info for LunaNera

What's your Intrinsic Value anchor? At 8% cost of equity on 347p FCF/share, IV is roughly 4,300p. 2,730p was 37% maegin of safety. With 10y gilts at 4.8%, BATS also rolling over, and FX 2–2.5% headwind into H2 — is 37% deep enough margin?

At 40% mos we get a classic Ben Graham buy (2594p)

The market read past the headline and into the reconciliation---these investors did the work. Pleasingly different from what I've seen in other places.

It's a cash cow indeed.

The results are backwards-looking.

The market is forwards-looking.

Governments that watched Hormuz close are treating energy independence as a national security imperative, not a climate aspiration.

The timeline is unknown.

The immediate impact on catalytic converter demand is unknown.

What is known is that the question is now firmly in the room and markets tend to price tbat.

Maybe that explains the muted reaction better than the results do?

Hi SheffieldOwls

Director buying signals confidence in near-term earnings, not in the commodity's decade-long demand curve. Both can be true simultaneously.

The structural question: catalytic converter demand declines as EV adoption accelerates --- accelerated further by every government that watched Hormuz close for six weeks.

Fuel cells were the offsetting thesis. That remains unproven at commercial scale.

What does the platinum demand curve look like in 2030?

The market looks forward, not back.

It is the question the market has not fully priced.

The absence of buybacks at these levels is worth sitting with. Management knows the business better than we do.

The structural context has shifted materially since the last results cycle.

Energy independence is no longer a political nice-to-have — it is now a strategic and national security imperative. Every government that watched Hormuz close for six weeks is accelerating domestic renewable capacity regardless of cost. That transition structurally reduces catalytic converter demand on a timeline measured in years, not decades.

The platinum fuel cell upside — the primary demand offset that justified the long-term bull case — remains unproven at commercial scale.

None of this is about next Tuesday's numbers. It is about what the next five years looks like for the underlying commodity.

Correction noted — FCF is £2.7bn, not £3.2bn. Apologies for the error.

Either way: a business generating £2.7bn annually with no energy input, no dollar dependency, and addiction-driven demand across 120 markets is about to become considerably more interesting to the market as the macro deteriorates. The smoker lights up regardless of what Hormuz is doing.

£3.2bn FCF. Dividend growing 4.5% annually. Company buying its own stock at 2,758p. EY-audited. Wide moat. Morningstar fair value £33.

At 7x free cash flow with SONIA at 3.73% and a 5.77% growing yield — what exactly is the market pricing in that the audited numbers don't support?

Genuinely asking.

This war hasn't started yet.

To me this looks like reconnaissance.

I shall remain on the side-lines until all this has some predictable consistency.

What's your time frame?

I park money in CSH2.L or ERNS.L pending on my worst case scenario outlook.

Happy to hear about other approaches.

Hope this helps.

Hi Bangrak

No concerns about the macro crumbling before our eyes? I don't see SLP as a safe haven as consumer confidence erodes.

On the numbers SLP will win.

If we trade the macro, then not so much.

This may be more about the macro environment than the fundamentals.

We've seen this before.

I have

Pt - 2090.05 +3.47%

Pa - 1566.90 +1.66%

no change in Ir, Rh, Ru

The metals don't read newspapers.

Ru, Ir, Rh unchanged. Pt, Pd +1.6%/+0.66%

$3,100/oz basket.

See you April 28th.

Hi Quiggers,

Depends. If Mr Market looks at the E4 basket, then yes, the fall in Pt and Pa have a huge impact.

Looking at the E6 basket (well, these metals are real - they are traded too), this fall hardly registers.

The other two components in E6 are super solid at ATH.

And since they keep strong for a prolonged period (no sing of weakness yet), the average basket price since 1st of Jan is moving up a notch.

Let that sink in.

The question one should ask, who uses Ru and Ir and for what? Not hard to find out.

Note how the spread just tightened towards the end.

I have it at 1p.

Good tape reading.

Below 3% as of October 2025 — maximum 7.8 million shares at that point.

They've had five months of strength to sell into.

Today may be the finale.

Someone is hoovering up stock at 103p ahead of April 28th. The same someone who paid 108.75-109.50p on Thursday is likely bidding at 103p today with considerable satisfaction.

MMs shake the tree real hard now. They need the liquidity ahead of the rush.

Chrome income from Thaba JV is worth revisiting.

$1m looks conservative given current ramp rates.