Member Info for LunaNera

Hi Quiggers

You might find this one useful too. It's a bit more.... 'lively' :)

https://www.metalsdaily.com/live-prices/pgms/

I would not rely on the quality of their free data feed in this respect. Hope you got a good spread.

Orders of this magnitude often show at EOD (from my experience).

Whoops. Good catch. My bad.

Jerome Powell. I'm getting old.

Cheers

That would disappoint the president :D

Wasn't his beef w Colin Powell that he didn't lower interest rates?

For the record, Colin Powell was nominated by Mr President on November 2, 2017.

Monday will be interesting indeed.

Hi Velo

I wholeheartedly concur.

Last week I asked what drives this demand.

In a nutshell, CBs raise interest rates to encourage savings and keep inflation at bay. Would lowering them be in the best interest of the US economy? What would the long term impact be if inflation spirals out of control. During the Weimar Republic in Germany, people where better off holding hard assets (like precious metals) when inflation reared it's ugly head.

Belief and fear are irrational behaviour.

Yes, purely sentiment driven. But so was the recent hike (enthusiasm). So it got a bit over-extended (>7-8% from 10 EMA). This happens all the time. Last one was mid-October.

So we might be in opportunity territory for a bit (1-2 months).

Long term, this one is a blind buy, regardless of entry point.

When we had the Rh frenzy, it was really just that one metal in the basket. This time is different, it's literally all the metals in the E6 basket. Not sure how different, but different enough for a little longer ;)

Hi Quiggers

Indeed.

It fell through quite hard, with quite a bit of a gap too. This is after its second over-extension, so no surprise here.

I freed a nice tranche yesterday, ready to nibble on more SLP.

However, this type of market behaviour might bring a few more opportunities. So I patiently wait how this plays out and nibble in small chunks along the way.

I'm afraid this does not look like a short term blip (although I could be very wrong).

Not surprised if this one ends up consolidating sideways a bit before the next move up. I'm looking for a wedge pop before adding to the position though.

Best

I make my money from exhaustion ans the resulting market fear ;)

This is well within a normal market cycle.

Although I'd wait a bit for confirmation before entering a new trade.

The fundamentals are solid. These kind of wedges testing the 10 and 20 day EMA occur regularly and present interesting opportunities.

Nice opportunity :)

Stops kicking in?

I would not be surprised if the JV contributes about 30%. Just a ballpark.

As far as Rh is concerned, Jaco is perfectly capable of transporting the entire world supply of Rh on the back of his Hilux. I would argue he is well prepared ;)

I came across this gem:

"The only caveat to this is that in my opinion, the valuation (1.8x book value) is now being driven by commodity prices, with little support from intrinsic fundamentals"

Well, that's what they do. They mine and sell commodities. You don't want to have a huge liquidation value since that implies inefficient (expensive) operations.

The intrinsic value is very linked to how efficient they mine and sell these commodities.

I am more interested understanding what drives these PGM prices. My conclusion is that people are manufacturing a lot more armaments (see Europe seeking to have it's own defence as suggested by the USA). PGMs are very important there. We also have that data-centre madness that drives things like Ruthenium. This is just to get the ball rolling. Chime in!

Mispricing creates nice arbitrage opportunities ;)

DKDynamo

Let your winners run. Now is not the time to take the chips off the table.

Haha, the 'angel of death' appeared.

Didn't he recommend his readers to sell when it was in the 36-50p range (rather than hoarding during the dow cycle? - I did).

Does that mean we are approaching the top? He usually appears 1-2 years before.

Well then: buy some more.

Looks like it is below intrinsic value according to your estimates.

There is some lag one has to account for. The benefit of the basket price does not materialise immediately. See previous chimes from experienced people on this board.

Q3 is where these fruits are plucked.

Thus said, my curiosity is directed towards Ruthenium and Iridium. Unlike Pt, Pl, and Rh, these are considered difficult to substitute. Their rise astounding.

And they play into the current AI excitement rather nicely.

All we need for a pumper year going forward, is for them to consolidate near these levels and we are good for a welcome surprise.

Patience.

Indeed. Blackrock got it wrong.

IIRC they had an exit from a client worth billions. So you liquidate things. SLP should have had a nice run at that moment. Easy to see why they decided to go for that.

Given the amount they needed to raise, it was a bad call. It wouldn't have moved the needle much.

Or some other reason? We shall never know.

The basket price changed a bit since I posted.

Happy to be wrong about the upside. Q3 should be interesting.