The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Wish we had a proper cashflow but q1 ebitda 7.1m dollars, 9m dollars debt repair but 6.3m dollars debt drawn down. Kouroussa should get better little by little now even if Corica dont come back to work. I am surprised and whilst the debt might need to get put back or reworked slightly this looks promising.
I don't think the hedge is the source of all our trouble lol. Remember in 2020 Hummingbird looked like a great business, gold was high at the time and they just had Yan and no debt. Sadly since then almost everything has gone wrong and most of it could have been avoided by really experienced businessman with experience in mining. Even one of the analysts notes quite rightly pointed out that other operators in Mali haven't had the issues Humm had that year, it was self inflicted.
We really need to find out how bad the cash burn is at the moment and what the plan is to manage any cash situation and also what operational plans tie into that. If this picture looks doable and well thought out this business is probably incredibly cheap. Unfortunately its been on problem after another for 2/3 years now so you'd be a brave person to bet either way.
I just feel there is enough incentive for everyone to find ways to support each other in this somehow for it to fall apart suddenly. Dugbe must be worth a small fortune with gold near here too !
I'm gonna take a very hopeful view here. I think that between the NED having his 1m shares at 11p or whatever and the gold price being what it is you've got a very motivated team to work through this problem. We know Yanfolila is on track and is not affected by the walkout and maybe - just maybe - the cash burn isn't so bad.
Exactly how they are working through the problem i don't think we all fully understand yet but i can see a situation where it isn't so bad. I also will say i can't see why the bank would want to take over a company that's already struggling. It makes no sense to me so i'd say they might be happy to either postpone a bunch of payments or stagger them for the time being. Don't forget banks charge big fees just to re-negotiate things or enable new facilities which is why they exist - they don't want to take over multi jurisdictional struggling gold mining companies ( in my view ).
A raise is very possible too i guess but again i sort of doubt it for a few reasons.
Find out tomorrow - fingers very crossed.
Shaz i think the NAV now includes a valuation of the put option. JV has mentioned this as one of the reasons for the uplift in NAV previously. The NAV is an assessment - one way or another of our ownership of things. Most are fairly illiquid right now and the put option ( even if JV wanted to exercise it ) might not be paid by Ascendant ( they don't have that sort of cash lying around ). How you think that affects the value currently as a discount to the NAV is your call. Maybe the situation is much clearer and different this time next year or maybe it isn't hence what Florence says.
But as Florence says if we could exercise the put option and sell the Luca mining stake as an exercise you've got a lot more than the market cap in cash.
Yes i see all the references to a linkedin post etc but i couldn't find anyone with the actual link to it? I was reading it last night but i still couldn't find anything on Zimalco's website, nor any twitter bits or linkedin articles or posts. Have you got an actual link to what people on the ADVFN board are talking about?
Yeah it's tough but Dan makes it sound impossible. If i was Humm i would have stated whether Yan mining is affected at all and also given shareholders a summary or view of the current financial position. We own the company and we don't know if a major issue with a major supplier at our new large mine is actually dangerous for the company and over what time frame.
Every RNS is so vague and hopeful or full of pointless legalese type prose. Just talk to us about the risks in plain english as though your mother is a shareholder and has asked how things are going !
Id like to say they won't go bust. I mean the RNS makes no mention of serious financial issues specific to this new development... However i've heard Dan speak at least 3 times in the last years and within weeks found his rosy picture isn't quite so rosy. The fact he always sounds bewildered about the markets pricing but always shoots himself in the foot is pretty ironic.
That said i bought 5k more at 5.45p this morning as surely it is in everyone's interest to get this issue sorted somehow included the debt holders. I know everyone here loves a conspiracy but i can't see how Coris want to inherit their own debt with no working miners/management. If the reply is they can sell Humm in a debt ridden state to a few people then you clearly believe Humm is worth a fortune today as well. I'd guess if push comes to shove Coris will delay some debt on different terms or something and allow Humm to do a deal with Corica.
Yeah this is what worries me, Corica won't back down easily now and they could be as difficult as they like i guess. It really could be a serious issue. If i was Corica CEO or whatever i could be a total nightmare to Humm now.
This is an excellent question and if you ever find an answer please let us all know. The level of bewilderment this company are responsible for amongst us is truly mind blowing. we've got a NED who committed to buy around £1m of shares not 2 months ago and now they've got a very public request for 27m dollars from a key supplier without whom we won't mine very much.
Vague RNS from Hummingbird, detailed response from Corica, nothing from Hummingbird yet. I can't think of a situation that requires an RNS more than this asap. Hopefully time zones aside we will get one asap. We got one at 9:30am tuesday so i can't see why timing should be an issue today.
No, they have 28 million AUD realised cases.
From Simon Thompson below...
" In the latest six-month period, the group concluded three cases, which delivered a ninefold increase in cash receipts to A$28.4mn, including A$10.2mn of performance fees from third-party funds. The cases generated a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.3 times, well above the 2.8 times average the group has achieved since inception. It also highlights a prudent accounting approach given that ongoing cases held on the balance sheet are valued at A$213mn, or two times cash invested.
It means that, as more cases are settled, the group will book substantial profits from both directly held investments as well as earn material performance fees from third-party funds. This explains why analysts at Investec Securities expect annual pre-tax profit and earnings per share (EPS) to almost double to A$47.7mn and 30.2¢, respectively, on 49 per cent higher revenue of A$77mn. "
It hasnt been ' like this for years '. It's NAV reflects a value at a point in time based on the valuations you can check yourself. It didn't have a NAV 5 years ago like it does now. If it has wound up 5 years ago and returned every penny to shareholders you would have got far less than you would today.
There isn't more money available cheaply privately than publically this is just a time where capital is expensive and isn't looking to race into dirty, dangerous mining operations but i'm sure that will change at some point like always.
Yeah the debt refinancing is going to help a lot and its interesting that they arn't sure bond vs private debt re-finance. I imagine lots of fixed price money isn't quite sure what happens next - clearly they have some options.
i don't want any more dividends either that tax situation was a nightmare. Buybacks or grow the platform is fine by me.
I feel like they really try to get that across, the presentation started exactly in the vein you write. I guess they have to be careful not to oversell something and maybe lawyers are overly cautious.
The FD actually at one point clearly explained what you said and concluded that the shares trade well below their intrinsic value to explain buybacks.
I'm convinced that this business will be worth a heck of a lot more in 10 years time.