Member Info for Guvvi

It's fine by me, at the end of the day this company is in the process of generating huge future cashflows. It's just a matter of time until the timings of case conclusions are such that the annual accounts show a stonking profit. Should be in the next 12/24 months imo easily.

There we go i was wrong its partly in the fund. 6x our own capital plus some very strong performance fees hopefully.

Yeah i've got no reason to think approx 4x on 12.3m dollars isn't roughly right. That's about £40m sterling incoming.

I admit i could definately be wrong but that's my best guess !

Its 18m aus dollars or 12.3m US dollars from 2020. Were we using fund money in 2020? If not expect the money to double around every 2.7 years from that period of time i think assuming normal terms.

Yep 252m award including interest. Very material.

Good spot - i didnt even notice!

Lots of sales lol. Or in real money about £3,000.

Also i found this by being interested in the funder LCM. You can always trawl through LCM/Burford rns etc and see what's going on. GreenX was very similar and could have been found the same way.

As a long term holder i'm glad that they're making the changes that they're making. But this is so long overdue and should have happened a very long time ago. I don't mind not knowing exactly what the issues are and finding out every quarter but even worse it seems they don't know what the issues are! The share price here deserves to get punished.

That said the lender does appear to be ringing the changes and their ownership might be very good for us on this front.

God knows when we might get a good rns - hopefully i'll still be alive if we do!

No question IF Ascendant drum up the cash and pay us the option money it would be very good for us. I just wouldn't like to give you odds on whether EDM will either take up their stake or not ( either requires an actual decision on their part which is never forthcoming ) and whether Ascendant can raise more money to pay us and build a mine.

I pray Duster and Bushy are right and i'm optimistic. But i'm also exhausted from endless optimism and have held a lot of shares here for a very long time.

You don't know what the expect from the RNS until you read them tbh. Fingers crossed as always.

The other difficult question to answer is whether Ascendant have the money to pay us the option. I know we don't like talking about this but it's a very real and practical problem.

I'm sceptical that a badly understood business like this with lumpy cashflows has an investor base who really connect the NAV conservative or otherwise with the share price to be honest.

I was happy when there was no fair value but i guess its an effort to do better than cost. Funnily enough despite fair value and buyback and a consistent dividend the share price has hardly moved hence my view above !

I've watched it twice and i don't really have any concerns. Management own a big chunk of the shares and they conservatively value the portfolio. They've got quickly increasing invested capital numbers and committed numbers. You can pick around numbers and timings etc but ultimately it's a very very good business in my view and they run it well.

They were even so bold as to say they think 15/20% nav per share growth is reasonable in the medium term.

Just wish we would get more buybacks rather than dividends as the witholding tax is a pain in the rear.

The answer appears to be that Simon Thompson of IC has initiated coverage...

I was just wondering exactly the same. Very odd... anyone know?

What holidays? Has he said he's on holiday?

Except we only get the payout if Ascendant have the dosh...

Additionally I think JV has said in the past that the gov do not want to be actual owners of a mine. Owning a mine long term makes them responsible for all problems and issues too. I think this is where the issue is as the gov don’t actually really know how to resolve this. It’ll resolve one way or the other at some point though as eventually ascendant will simply build the mine ( if they get funding etc )

Probably gold being where it is on the back of the Fed saying they're likely to lower rates in Sept. Very good for us too with our gold holding!