Member Info for Guvvi

No, they have 28 million AUD realised cases.

From Simon Thompson below...

" In the latest six-month period, the group concluded three cases, which delivered a ninefold increase in cash receipts to A$28.4mn, including A$10.2mn of performance fees from third-party funds. The cases generated a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.3 times, well above the 2.8 times average the group has achieved since inception. It also highlights a prudent accounting approach given that ongoing cases held on the balance sheet are valued at A$213mn, or two times cash invested.

It means that, as more cases are settled, the group will book substantial profits from both directly held investments as well as earn material performance fees from third-party funds. This explains why analysts at Investec Securities expect annual pre-tax profit and earnings per share (EPS) to almost double to A$47.7mn and 30.2¢, respectively, on 49 per cent higher revenue of A$77mn. "

It hasnt been ' like this for years '. It's NAV reflects a value at a point in time based on the valuations you can check yourself. It didn't have a NAV 5 years ago like it does now. If it has wound up 5 years ago and returned every penny to shareholders you would have got far less than you would today.

There isn't more money available cheaply privately than publically this is just a time where capital is expensive and isn't looking to race into dirty, dangerous mining operations but i'm sure that will change at some point like always.

Yeah the debt refinancing is going to help a lot and its interesting that they arn't sure bond vs private debt re-finance. I imagine lots of fixed price money isn't quite sure what happens next - clearly they have some options.

i don't want any more dividends either that tax situation was a nightmare. Buybacks or grow the platform is fine by me.

I feel like they really try to get that across, the presentation started exactly in the vein you write. I guess they have to be careful not to oversell something and maybe lawyers are overly cautious.

The FD actually at one point clearly explained what you said and concluded that the shares trade well below their intrinsic value to explain buybacks.

I'm convinced that this business will be worth a heck of a lot more in 10 years time.

Anyone else surprised this isn't up today? Solid numbers, applications up, solid balance sheet, continued good management.

But people selling! lol.

Generally quite negative i think. Most smaller miners are really unpopular at the moment - i expect we will see some slightly more challenging NAV numbers coming up. You can check Cerrado/Ascendant etc yourself quite easily.

There are plenty of reasons to be public if you can raise money and deploy it usefully. I suspect JV thinks he could deploy it very usefully but i also suspect that what you see in our share price is mirrored across most small caps and especially the mining industry. There seems to be no liquidity right now and its hard to raise money except at prices you don't want to.

Lawrence you realise the big sell was about £25,000 pounds? Thats not big lol.

It is really bad news and i'm sick of it but... What do we think the odds are of no resolution being found within, say, a week? I'd say there is a good chance this gets sorted one way or another without 30% odd drop being fair.

That said i'm looking at this today with a price in mind whereas as a long term holder sadly yes it just shows that they can't manage to make anything work even remotely smoothly. We are miles behind schedule now and the main mining contractor has torn up the contract for the time being. What an absolute madness.

Full disclosure that was me.

I'd like to say ' in a couple of months we should know either way i guess ' except i've said that here so many times before.

I expect that's why there is nothing to be said anymore. I understand people saying this company is rubbish and also understand the people saying they could well making a killing over the next 2 years and transform!

Yeah i'm only teasing. As you say everyone exhausted both ways, now we wait...

Remind me, are we due an rns of any sort shortly?

Are we all still alive folks? This is a record in all my years of ownership - never seen this board so quiet !

Maybe yeah and maybe he was just tired or not feeling great, noone is perfect and they're allowed off days. I just feel like if it was me id be very blunt about what is and is not working to any shareholders i had to answer to.

X mine is working at 70% processing capacity, mining fleet is 100% now and within 3-4 weeks we will be an 10,000 ounces a month - i'll update you shortly.

Recruitment is tricky and training taking longer than expected for reasons X, Y and Z.

I could sum up in 15 minutes my feelings on the business i run to any group of shareholders reasonably familiar with what we do for a living and explain what we do well and badly.

The criticism isn't limited to Humm either, so many of these directors are so unwilling to talk frankly and regularly when needed. They are evasive, vague and miss the point in my view. If everything is going well by all means only talk to us twice a year but i'd like monthly updates on key issues right now. Never seems to work like that.

Actually i take that back Supreme are very good at updating and explaining their business and the issues facing it. They rarely let anything fester much and keep things simple. I honestly feel like im treated in the right way and get the information i need.

On balance Bushy i agree. I just wish these guys inspired a bit more confidence and enthusiasm too. It seems strange but DB is always so animated about arguing the disconnect with SP and value and how they arn't an explorer etc etc. But that last presentation now we are in the thick of it and he can actually make and prove the point he seemed totally uninterested and bored.

Dugbe must be worth something to someone one day too.

Nope the reply to that was “ we are in a good position “. No mention of any actual thoughts on it or what it means.

Just enough to sound positive but leave room for mistakes and blame.

Politicians answer for me !

I asked if they could provide as much detail about the short term cash flow expectations of the business given the new ramp up schedule.

I also emailed Dan directly earlier in the week asking if this could be discussed on the call ( again in as much detail as possible )

I didn't like that presentation much, they seemed very very bored of it all. The questions they picked were crazy questions that could be answered easily too, ignored both of mine.

If you missed it i can tell you you missed absolutely nothing and normally there is 1 or 2 bits you can leave with !

Yep

With all due respect commoditytrader what you've just said is wrong. ( the below is rough as im at work and cba with do currency changes on every number )

In rough terms today you can buy all the equity for 71m. The enterprise value is around 210m say. So in 2 years the EV will still be 210m for arguements sake all things being equal including profit and news and sentiment etc etc. You've bought shares at 71m and now they worth 210m.

This has nothing to do with multiples it's just the transfer of debt to equity.

It's the same as finding a commercial property worth 1m made up as 330k cost to you ( sale price ) but you take on 770k of debt and pay it down over 2 years from the rent. Your 330k is now worth 1m and you've not paid out another penny as the rent has covered the repayment of debt.

Yeah but this is now a big beast with a lot of costs and they're on a new ramp up schedule.

I have no idea what this does to cashflow while full production is being worked towards in Q1. But i imagine fuel/wages/other overheads are felt sooner than the revenue which might not start really hitting until march/april?

Again i admit i'm not exactly sure and i hope it's not likely to be an issue at all.