Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It's actually worse than that we are going in total from 394m shares in issue to 573m shares in issue. The dilution is about 32%.
I don't know how you can be so flippant about this and assume it's just going to be great. The people who run this business for you ( i assume you've got a reasonable holding long term too ) just decided the best price they could raise funds at for the business you say is an easy 5 bagger is... 7.79p.
Easy to dismiss dilution but as a long term holder with the 1.2m shares i've transparently shared here this isn't nice is it.
They promised they are on budget all along but consistently use the phrase ' help ensure ' along with any need for debt or dilution. Who knows how much they need or when or at what price? Coris obviously will not support the project any further than they have.
Going from 400m odd shares to 550m shares means the bar for a return is lifted somewhat. I'm 27% worse off on all future returns. Dugbe just became worth 27% less, Kouroussa cashflows became worth 27% less and whatever Yanfolila does 27% less again.
Fingers crossed thats the end of the bad news now for a while and we can bask in decent production volumes, profits and reasonable gold prices.
It all looks pretty good and with profits and Coris supporting Kouroussa i don't see how they don't get their plans roughly right this year. The market cap is absurd given this position and thats without Dugbe. The debt is high but should come down over the next couple of years.
Well done Hummingbird finally.
From the Greenx Rns this morning...
On 30 June 2020, the Company executed a Litigation Funding Agreement (LFA) for US$12.3 million (*now worth A$18.0 million with the movement of the A$ compared to the $US) with LCM Funding UK Limited a subsidiary of Litigation Capital Management Limited (LCM), to pursue damages claims in relation to the investment dispute between GreenX and the Polish Government that has arisen out of certain measures taken by Poland in breach of the Energy Charter Treaty and the Australia - Poland Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). LCM will provide up to US$12.3million (~A$18.0 million), denominated in US$, in limited recourse financing which is repayable to LCM in the event of a successful Claim or settlement of the Dispute that results in the recovery of any monies. If there is no settlement or award, then LCM is not entitled to any repayment of the financing facility. In return for providing the financing facility, LCM shall be entitled to receive repayment of any funds drawn plus an amount equal to between two and five times the total of any funds drawn from the funding facility during the first five years, depending on the time frame over which funds have remained drawn, and then a 30% interest rate after the fifth year until receipt of damages payments.
I'm down a little more than 50% on 1.2m shares so i'm hoping for not only a decent improvement in Q4 but maybe also guidance that 2023 productivity has continued where 2022 finished off.
I have to be honest though I've been let down so much here the last couple of years i'm not getting too excited...
Even if it's multiple parties these arn't tiny buys. Lots of people seem to have decided to put thousands into a very indebted small gold miner...
Watch this space, the next update is so crucial now. If they prove they will survive to Kouroussa then this is a no brainer in my view.
Swatton you're right it'll move eventually. understanding what is going on in the short term is very hard and just makes your brain hurt.
Everyone and their wife has a theory about market makers endlessly manipulating share prices for someone's nefarious gain but even if that is true it doesn't do any good spending time worrying about it.
We are also seeing sustained buying here which i haven't seen for a long time. I'm surprised the price is still so low actually - i would have thought this much buying would have moved the price much more.
Could just be gold bugs, who knows.
Gallmat i've watched all the investor presentations for years and submitted many questions during them but i've still never heard of profit sharing from them - which i admit might be my mistake.
I hope you're right but if anyone has a link to any statement on this i'd appreciate it.
I agree it's all very good news.
But what i'm getting at is there is a lot of talk of profit sharing on the forums but i've never seen any evidence of a deal built on this rather than a multiple of invested capital ?
And yes its a fund 1 deal so not entirely capital from LCMs own balance sheet. Don't get me wrong i've got a few hundred thousand shares and would love a £45m sterling credit to our balance sheet but i've got no reason to believe this is true.
The boredom has been pretty wonderful so far, hope it continues. Real world value is being created and evident from yesterday - we have a large sum of cash coming soon and a actual backstop of value via the option to sell our 5% next year.
Whatever people's calculations it's a steal at these prices.