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I think this RNS reads that if EDM do not take up their offer of a working interest then we automatically get the 20% back?
That's a little different to how i understood it previously.
Yep very possible, not making any predictions just musing how the earnings per share might look for us after tax, after debt and turned into sterling now.
It's not looking good. Sorely tempted to sell out shortly honestly.
If they make 50m dollars of actual free cash for shareholders after tax and after any debt paid for in 2024 ( which i think is unlikely ) then that's 6 cents per share based on the new share count i think.
If you assume the 50m is a bit much and reduce it to 40m dollars then turn it into sterling etc then you've got something which has us trading at a forward p/e of like 3x maybe already. Maybe we make 3p of free cashflow per share in 2024?
This is the point of the dilution to us existing holders - Humm isn't stupidly cheap at all now for us.
Dugbe needs money because despite the NPV and the DFS and the gold price there are no worthy options for it. Clearly whoever might be interested has serious reservations about the draft numbers in the DFS.
If it could be sold for a reasonable sum it would be.
They're just too stretched with things that arn't what we all want them to be and that includes Dugbe.
Yep it looks like i'm slightly wrong as the total doesn't include the open offer of 5m dollars. It'll reduce the 43% a little but it'll still be the case that a massive chunk of our business has been sold for $45m.
They owned 150m from the first placing approx ( from 450m to 600m ).
Plus 177m from todays i think. so 327m / 777m x 100. Gives you 42%/43%.
I'm happy to be corrected but i think this is roughly right.
Bonkers here is what i know... 2022 was terrible every quarter there was no rns that year that presented us with a big fat reward and ' job done '.
2023 started with us saying ' rns soon for sure, dugbe worth loads of money this year sold by christmas for sure '. Kouroussa almost up and running by summer! yay!
Early 2023 equity raise dilution by about 30%...
Summer comes and goes and Kouroussa hasnt quite got up to speed but getting it up to speed has sapped us of all cash and debt is sky high.
End of 2023 is here and Dugbe won't be sold for some time but now actually needs another few millions squids spent on it to make it more attractive ( but it's worth almost 1bn dollars now i hear you cry !!! )
Well then wooohooo lets sell 43% of the company for 45m dollars !!!
" Its ok this is one for the boys and an rns full of 9 bob notes " - ok well that totally clears it up for me thanks.
Lol.
Effectively yesterday's 20p is now 26p. or thereabouts. If another raise your 20p will be 30p or higher? This is the only maths that matters, forget the discounts to yesterday's price they're issued at.
If there are 4 more raises at 12p even and we end up with 1.5bn shares in issue it won't matter 1 bit that they were not issued at a discount. The end of year profit in 2024 or 2025 won't be worth much at all to anyone who paid up in prior years hoping for 20p in 2023 !
Plumber just consider though that 43% of the business is now owned by someone who paid $45m for it before you get carried away ( i've made the same mistake ).
Every 1m of profit prior to this is now worth around 600k to a shareholder pre-raise. So every penny of after tax after debt repayment profit is worth that much less. And that assumes no more raises, debt, a strong gold price.
This year my stake has been diluted twice.
43% of the business has been sold now for a total of $45m dollars.
I have been here for years interested in a real growth plan that could be profitable for shareholders but my patience is wearing thin and i can't see how a company that on this board is spouted as being so valuable ( DB says the same in interviews is in actual fact being sold off for so little ).
I've had a reply from HL saying there is nothing they can do and that i need to talk to the foreign tax office ( i presume Australian tax office )...
I've just emailed IR today at LCM to see what they have to say about it. I hold a good chunk in ISAs and SIPPs so this is not fun.
What I mean is that we will probably get told next year should be good but we need them to execute on most things very well over the next 15 months. I want to believe but I’ve been here so long now and they’ve not executed in the way they will need to for that long time!