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At this point anything that isn't pretty sure of 200k ounces for next year at an acceptable aisc and i'll start selling down. There is too much debt here for mistakes in my view. They've had all the time in the world and the good fortune of very good gold prices this year. Running a business isn't black and white but the risks associated with them not starting to really deliver are very real.
I just have this horrible feeling they are not going to deliver as we expect and I’m trying to prepare myself. They’ve done well at Yan so far this year operationally but it all hinges on Kouroussa being sort now and if not they can’t go on raising debt or equity forever and me being happy with it.
Fingers crossed!
As a very long standing shareholder here now I’m wondering what I should reasonably expect in the end of October operational update? They’re still guiding for 80k/90k from Yan. As they say they’ve delivered Kouroussa on time and on budget… As we’ve all observed given the debt mountain Kouroussa and Yan kinda need to be bother doing good thing from Jan 1st 2024 and we need 2 years without big hiccups…
I’ve been disappointed by the capital raise and extra debt we’ve got so I’ve now been diluted once by 27% and somehow dealt with a now very large debt pile.
But what are peoples views on what they cannot afford to report wrongly at this stage ? It’s getting pretty close to the point where they need to be right on ball and the interims contained precious little to tell us they were on top of things.
I disagree. The NAV is the result of values of things you need to take a view on yourself. It's perfectly possible to work out what the company is probably worth now compared to 4 years ago.
If you don't want to buy that and the ' growth ' ( difference between to 2 ) at whatever price is available then you can do the same calculation anywhere else and buy something different.
The parts of MAFL ( NAV ) have a worth i'm quite happy with. If you think JV cannot invest well over time that's different but he has proven otherwise in my view.
As Barry says despite his selling down a little there is huge upside here but it's very illiquid and has a rather limited range of things it is going to tell the market anyway. So you may not hear much news if that's what you're after. And the price may drop or rise significantly on relatively small buying/selling.
Or we might get an interesting RNS about our option and/or ascendant getting funding or the mine or EDM and the other 15% tomorrow....
Most interesting thing for me was the mention a few times of the reducing competition in this space too. What a wonderful place to be operating in if this is the case with a model like ours in demand!
Except i suspect you just need to alter your agreement slightly to avoid it being classed within the realms of being a DBA. I highly doubt this will undo an entire industry where access to justice is always to be encouraged.
Https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/law/shockwaves-as-supreme-court-rules-litigation-funding-deals-unenforceable/5116775.article
Reading all the daft suggestions of bear raids, market makers controlling XYZ and the like i thought i'd highlight why the drop in price today.
Decision above came out late morning and made news regarding litigation funding enforceability.
Im afraid the option appears to be worth less to me.
At 8% its worth about 7.35m dollars. At 10.5% it'll be worth substantially less and you've still got to turn that into sterling... And Ascendant have got to actually pay it sometime in the future...
BillBoy firstly thanks for all the updates, i read them in detail unlike a lot of what's on here...
Gross debt of 128m dollars and reduced output at Yan but maybe 30,000 ounces from Kouroussa. Hopefully we don't do 20m dollars on capex each quarter too ( im sure we wont... )
I can see inroads made into this debt by end of year but its very high still. Even during next year if we are conservative and say 150k ounces from both mines we've got some very chunky debt to pay down still. Not a lot of room for error for Yan over the next 9 months and the Kouroussa ramp up.
I'd be happy just hearing that they've been able to deploy most of it sensibly. LCM could be of interest to quite a few funds now with a small dividend and fair value accounting which is going to make it far easier to understand at a glance.
Going to be an interesting couple of years i think.