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I asked if they could provide as much detail about the short term cash flow expectations of the business given the new ramp up schedule.
I also emailed Dan directly earlier in the week asking if this could be discussed on the call ( again in as much detail as possible )
I didn't like that presentation much, they seemed very very bored of it all. The questions they picked were crazy questions that could be answered easily too, ignored both of mine.
If you missed it i can tell you you missed absolutely nothing and normally there is 1 or 2 bits you can leave with !
With all due respect commoditytrader what you've just said is wrong. ( the below is rough as im at work and cba with do currency changes on every number )
In rough terms today you can buy all the equity for 71m. The enterprise value is around 210m say. So in 2 years the EV will still be 210m for arguements sake all things being equal including profit and news and sentiment etc etc. You've bought shares at 71m and now they worth 210m.
This has nothing to do with multiples it's just the transfer of debt to equity.
It's the same as finding a commercial property worth 1m made up as 330k cost to you ( sale price ) but you take on 770k of debt and pay it down over 2 years from the rent. Your 330k is now worth 1m and you've not paid out another penny as the rent has covered the repayment of debt.
Yeah but this is now a big beast with a lot of costs and they're on a new ramp up schedule.
I have no idea what this does to cashflow while full production is being worked towards in Q1. But i imagine fuel/wages/other overheads are felt sooner than the revenue which might not start really hitting until march/april?
Again i admit i'm not exactly sure and i hope it's not likely to be an issue at all.
Bushy thats exactly what i text a friend of mine today. 71m market cap and 148m dollars of debt so in 2 years it should almost triple without dividends or any forward looking positive news. ( and no dugbe returns )
If you think it doesn't go bust or have to issue any more shares and the guidance is roughly accurate even at the lower end then the reward is very significant here now.
And the bid is up from the open so i've no idea what you're on about. However the day is long and frankly guessing share price performance is a mugs game over a 40 minute period from open after a big rns.
Always amuses me how noone takes information seriously but if you mention the share price people can entertain themselves for hours writing rubbish.
I think management take guidance seriously now ( 2023 for Yanfolila was spot on ).
If 2024 is realistic/accurate/conservative or whatever then the issue is just the next few months and the cashflow within that. I'm not sure how the very short term goes now and thats the big worry.
If i'm right and we can be comfortable with guidance here now roughly for year then this is the only sticking point ( it's still a big sticking point ). I'm going to try and get answers from them either at the investor meet or direct.
Billboy if you can find it in yourself to post anything else you found noteworthy i'd really appreciate it regardless of how others take notice.
Kouroussa is currently barely mining then due to the lack of diesel? I thought Dan said on the call regarding the raise that the mining fleet was at full power now and working as expect at end of 2023? Worrying if it still isn't AND it can't without much more fuel being delivered. The money from the raise won't last very long at all if they can't get cracking. :(
I remain very conflicted about being invested here but i am so whatever. For those who keep talking about risk being virtually zero now remember we said exactly the same a year ago and 18 months before that the SP reflected the fact nothing would go wrong and 2 more mines were always being talked about in glowing terms.
The market is currently very fed up with let downs, delays and serious financial issues over several years.
I hope that this is the last raise and that what we all want to happen happens. But the retail market has endured years of underperformance and now has low expectations surely. I can't fault anyone for saying this lot are clowns and at the very least are not transparent with investors in a timely manner. Every raise and failure comes as a shock because halfway through every period when nothing is going wrong Dan does an interview and says its all going ok and then we find out this isn't really true at all.
Not surprised that retail investors who know this story arn't wanting to pump more money into it, especially when they can buy cheaper on the open market and have been able to for weeks.
So i hope - and it really is hope - that we are onwards and up from here but i'll only have myself to blame if in 3 months Kouroussa is not what we NEED it to be still and another raise is done. As Dan rightly pointed out the monthly costs to run something like Hummingbird are huge, this is not a small company by cost/revenue, only by market cap.
Ty
Do you have a link ? I can’t find one.