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Yeah it's tough but Dan makes it sound impossible. If i was Humm i would have stated whether Yan mining is affected at all and also given shareholders a summary or view of the current financial position. We own the company and we don't know if a major issue with a major supplier at our new large mine is actually dangerous for the company and over what time frame.
Every RNS is so vague and hopeful or full of pointless legalese type prose. Just talk to us about the risks in plain english as though your mother is a shareholder and has asked how things are going !
Id like to say they won't go bust. I mean the RNS makes no mention of serious financial issues specific to this new development... However i've heard Dan speak at least 3 times in the last years and within weeks found his rosy picture isn't quite so rosy. The fact he always sounds bewildered about the markets pricing but always shoots himself in the foot is pretty ironic.
That said i bought 5k more at 5.45p this morning as surely it is in everyone's interest to get this issue sorted somehow included the debt holders. I know everyone here loves a conspiracy but i can't see how Coris want to inherit their own debt with no working miners/management. If the reply is they can sell Humm in a debt ridden state to a few people then you clearly believe Humm is worth a fortune today as well. I'd guess if push comes to shove Coris will delay some debt on different terms or something and allow Humm to do a deal with Corica.
Yeah this is what worries me, Corica won't back down easily now and they could be as difficult as they like i guess. It really could be a serious issue. If i was Corica CEO or whatever i could be a total nightmare to Humm now.
This is an excellent question and if you ever find an answer please let us all know. The level of bewilderment this company are responsible for amongst us is truly mind blowing. we've got a NED who committed to buy around £1m of shares not 2 months ago and now they've got a very public request for 27m dollars from a key supplier without whom we won't mine very much.
Vague RNS from Hummingbird, detailed response from Corica, nothing from Hummingbird yet. I can't think of a situation that requires an RNS more than this asap. Hopefully time zones aside we will get one asap. We got one at 9:30am tuesday so i can't see why timing should be an issue today.
No, they have 28 million AUD realised cases.
From Simon Thompson below...
" In the latest six-month period, the group concluded three cases, which delivered a ninefold increase in cash receipts to A$28.4mn, including A$10.2mn of performance fees from third-party funds. The cases generated a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.3 times, well above the 2.8 times average the group has achieved since inception. It also highlights a prudent accounting approach given that ongoing cases held on the balance sheet are valued at A$213mn, or two times cash invested.
It means that, as more cases are settled, the group will book substantial profits from both directly held investments as well as earn material performance fees from third-party funds. This explains why analysts at Investec Securities expect annual pre-tax profit and earnings per share (EPS) to almost double to A$47.7mn and 30.2¢, respectively, on 49 per cent higher revenue of A$77mn. "
It hasnt been ' like this for years '. It's NAV reflects a value at a point in time based on the valuations you can check yourself. It didn't have a NAV 5 years ago like it does now. If it has wound up 5 years ago and returned every penny to shareholders you would have got far less than you would today.
There isn't more money available cheaply privately than publically this is just a time where capital is expensive and isn't looking to race into dirty, dangerous mining operations but i'm sure that will change at some point like always.
Yeah the debt refinancing is going to help a lot and its interesting that they arn't sure bond vs private debt re-finance. I imagine lots of fixed price money isn't quite sure what happens next - clearly they have some options.
i don't want any more dividends either that tax situation was a nightmare. Buybacks or grow the platform is fine by me.
I feel like they really try to get that across, the presentation started exactly in the vein you write. I guess they have to be careful not to oversell something and maybe lawyers are overly cautious.
The FD actually at one point clearly explained what you said and concluded that the shares trade well below their intrinsic value to explain buybacks.
I'm convinced that this business will be worth a heck of a lot more in 10 years time.
Anyone else surprised this isn't up today? Solid numbers, applications up, solid balance sheet, continued good management.
But people selling! lol.
Generally quite negative i think. Most smaller miners are really unpopular at the moment - i expect we will see some slightly more challenging NAV numbers coming up. You can check Cerrado/Ascendant etc yourself quite easily.
There are plenty of reasons to be public if you can raise money and deploy it usefully. I suspect JV thinks he could deploy it very usefully but i also suspect that what you see in our share price is mirrored across most small caps and especially the mining industry. There seems to be no liquidity right now and its hard to raise money except at prices you don't want to.
It is really bad news and i'm sick of it but... What do we think the odds are of no resolution being found within, say, a week? I'd say there is a good chance this gets sorted one way or another without 30% odd drop being fair.
That said i'm looking at this today with a price in mind whereas as a long term holder sadly yes it just shows that they can't manage to make anything work even remotely smoothly. We are miles behind schedule now and the main mining contractor has torn up the contract for the time being. What an absolute madness.
I'd like to say ' in a couple of months we should know either way i guess ' except i've said that here so many times before.
I expect that's why there is nothing to be said anymore. I understand people saying this company is rubbish and also understand the people saying they could well making a killing over the next 2 years and transform!
Maybe yeah and maybe he was just tired or not feeling great, noone is perfect and they're allowed off days. I just feel like if it was me id be very blunt about what is and is not working to any shareholders i had to answer to.
X mine is working at 70% processing capacity, mining fleet is 100% now and within 3-4 weeks we will be an 10,000 ounces a month - i'll update you shortly.
Recruitment is tricky and training taking longer than expected for reasons X, Y and Z.
I could sum up in 15 minutes my feelings on the business i run to any group of shareholders reasonably familiar with what we do for a living and explain what we do well and badly.
The criticism isn't limited to Humm either, so many of these directors are so unwilling to talk frankly and regularly when needed. They are evasive, vague and miss the point in my view. If everything is going well by all means only talk to us twice a year but i'd like monthly updates on key issues right now. Never seems to work like that.
Actually i take that back Supreme are very good at updating and explaining their business and the issues facing it. They rarely let anything fester much and keep things simple. I honestly feel like im treated in the right way and get the information i need.
On balance Bushy i agree. I just wish these guys inspired a bit more confidence and enthusiasm too. It seems strange but DB is always so animated about arguing the disconnect with SP and value and how they arn't an explorer etc etc. But that last presentation now we are in the thick of it and he can actually make and prove the point he seemed totally uninterested and bored.
Dugbe must be worth something to someone one day too.