Member Info for Guvvi

Yes, not doing anything until more detailed info in September. Remember the board have a huge holding here, i'm sure a decent plan is very much in their interests.

Most car crashes i've seen occur when the board have big salaries but low personal holdings.

That's exactly right, they need to scale quickly and for the business to make sense for the equity holders rather than participants in the debt funds. Those guys are all quite happy but shareholders here need to be knee deep in reasonably good cases on a larger scale. I actually think this is probably years away as even if fund 3 is agreed in the next 12 months it won't be deployed for a long time after that and cases won't be resolved for years after that.

The business is still slightly too small for repeat cashflows that make this seem like a bargain. However we've got some very lumpy money due to us and also the prospect of appeals on large cases maybe succeeding and still got old balance sheet investments to come through.

Is LCM a bargain? No, they don't seem to have the scale just yet.

Is it a financial basket case? No and they could well have huge sums of money coming to them shortly from Greenx and other cases. Servicing the debt only costs about 9m AUD a year so they can be patient if there are more delays.

The debt pile has only grown due to continued investment in cases. The value here has fallen away as cases have been lost and that makes the debt pile seem more scary. The debt pile isn't on its own a dreadful thing unless their ability to take on promising cases has suddenly diminished ( unlikely ) or it needs servicing quicker than they can get any more wins in the short term from older cases.

The recent newsflow has highlighted that winning cases is not a given at the same time as they've ramped up investment into new cases.

I'd imagine they can manage the debt and their cashflow a bit more carefully if they have to and they're looking at this now in a way they wouldn't normally given the recent news flow.

I think the market is being very very careful about this situation and it probably doesn't help that Patrick has been so positive and asked investors to take so much good feeling away from his slides on every presentation for years! Turns out he was at least a bit wrong.

It's possible but also it might just be that recent performance hasn't been great so now we've got a few reasons not to market F3.

Hard to say whether it's just the reason given or a few different reasons.

It also looks like the US provisions around tax on litigation finance are going to be dropped. So F3 marketing may restart.

None at all. But i do believe that the debt on the balance sheet due to us isn't at full value either, it's discounted slightly to reflect payment risk etc so when it does get paid it should be higher than what we expect.

Looks very very likely to get paid at some point but noone is quite sure when.

I'm a long term holder so i hope they get this sorted out but they've significant overheads each year to cover before resolving these cases is of any value to shareholders. Approx AUD20M overheads and AUD10m interest costs. So AUD30m or approx £15m sterling.

Now this can be a mixture of cases or even from a cashflow point of view just 1 big one ( greenx payment is looming and held on the balance sheet at AUD35m ) but as we can see the growth is there and the funds are popular but a run of decisions going against us and the debt being used to fund our portion of the cases isn't good when you've got sizeable annuals costs.

We need this to scale quickly over the next few years or a slightly different model for this to work for shareholders rather than debt holders and fund participants.

The impression i get from the company is that they expected this to scale quicker and didn't envisage this sort of run on cases.

Looking forward to september's meeting as i believe the company has more options than we think but this is certainly a frustrating situation.

Looks like the 112k was James Lesser.

We own close to 20% of Golden Sun. Wonder what sort of interest it's been getting...

Id be very surprised if we don't get a short interview.

It's still very small so i'd not expect any crazy price action ( although you never know ). I don't think 30% growth a year is baked into the share price at all, it still trades at a discount all the time.

My guess is something got sold to buy the silver. We don't know what yet but Luca ( some or all ) would be a prime candidate.

Any predictions for tomorrow ? I’ve been buying more since it went below 70p.

Don't forget that while we're all here trying to work out a paper nav and then wondering whether it's right or when it will happen it's JV's stated aim to monetise 2/3 investments this year. If that's a combination of 3 from LS/Gold/Luca/Golden Sun then we don't have long to wait and we know what 3 of them are worth minimum today ( LS/Gold/Luca ).

Gonna be a very interesting year and the values of the above today are far above the current SP.

Right you are, doesn’t show on sharepad still for some reason.

Where was the 100k buy today ? I don’t see it

Anyone else noticing lots of sells but the bid going up? It was 20.6p today without any buys and did the same on friday.

Seems pretty odd that it's going up but not a lot going on and what is being shown are sells i think.

Nor the fact no-one has paid NAV for a share here at 29.25p.

I think he calls statements like that ' intellectually dishonest '.

And as i Sid very early on rather than guesswork and assumptions about JV why don't you e-mail him your concerns and let him try and persuade you either way? Lot's of people on this board know him better than you and have met him more than once over the years. But you're on here trying to tell us all about him and the risks associated with him?

Sid why on earth are you here if the S&P500 is so much better over 10 years and you're lecturing people about it on this board?