Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Thanks spights.

"“However, prices are likely to still exhibit some upside potential even if a deal is concluded, given that supply will likely not return to pre-war levels immediately,” he said."

...I didn't know Trump has become an energy market analyst!

In other news...Trump as sued his own administration (I know the legal system can do what they like.....they are the law)

and managed to get away with a sentence, which prohibit any future tax investigation on his finances...FOR EVER.

I suppose he is preparing for the coming conclusion, on the finding of the illegal bet placed on the oil future market.

Jamtart1.....with your posting, I suppose you too have found a good reason to vent opinions. Please keep it up but again, I remind you that this is BP investors board, not the mental health board for losers.

By the way I am a decent psychologist, in case you need some therapy!

Jamtart1 last time I checked I can post as much as I like and say whatever I want to say.

Maybe, you wanna check you sexuality issues and childhood repressions.

....perversely, he will be forced to do what public opinion perceive, to remain at the center of international attention.

This is what happens to egocentric peoples.

..hardly moved on Trump message. He must be fuming! His words are less and less believable.....

I hear Iran refuses all the Nuclear requests of the pace deal.

One... among the many question marks, Trump latest communique arises is:

But what a F.....does it means that the SA and UEA know beforehand, when USA is about to go bombing around?

...I see this latest post on Trump "truth media" as a preannouncement that they will be bombing again soon,

possibly after Wednesday NVIDIA quarter results.

The tech index is ready to fall is only NVIDIA results that are keeping it from freefall. But NVIDIA results even if spectacular won't be enough

to keep the index up, so why not blaming the recommencing of bombing Iran, as excuse for the indexes to come down ?!

The latest is Trump is holding of a Tuesday attack on Iran

because the gulf states asked so, as there seems to be a very good chance in pace negotiations

to go trough.

The media circus is working at full speed, trying to keep the oil down but more than that to lower 10years bond yield and keep the indexes afloat.

If you listen to Aljazeera news, the reality on the ground is that, they are still bombing each other and droning each other.

beside....

https://www.investing.com/news/pro/us-denies-report-it-agreed-to-lift-iran-oil-sanctions--cnbc-432si-4696512

you don't know anymore who and what to believe these days.

this is what they want the fat controllers, spread ignorance and disinformation or in other words, dilute as much as possible the truth,

so that only the one in the circle, and in the know, can react quicker than anyone else, pure greed, collusion from the criminal genocider ****** in power.

..agree things have escalated and beyond return in the region.

With repeatedly infringements of international rules of conduct and war engagement,

Iran could be excused if they are sending drones around and saying its not us, one could even see the sense of humor in it.

At least they wouldn't be bombing, schools, hospitals, journalist or humanitarian aid....

But hey....indeed it could be anyone.

New of last hour....

Trump must be fuming....

..one thing is for sure. The market is reacting less and less to news "or shall we talk about fake news"

Two very good reasons for that. One is that more the blockade is lasting and more it will take for oil price to come down again

hence on positive news the price will react less or will rebound from the drop more.

The second is psychological and is that after multiple lies and fake news and aborted attempt for pace,

the market is growing disenchanted about hope for pace...beside too much is sitill going on and unresolvable in Lebanon and Palestine.

Really imv the only hope Trump has is to bring back all the military from the gulf and ask please if Iran is willing to negotiate.

Lift all the sanctions, and ask Israel at least to stop bombing Lebanon and Palestine. Only then Iran will possibly agree to any uranium enricment

timeframe and maybe by lifting all sanction they will open Hormuz without asking for money.

Local media in Iran reported that US is prepared to lift some sanction "during the negotiation taking place"

that is all.

On the ground nothing has happened, blockade from both countries still there in Hurmuz....

News...rather rumors travels fast hence the sp and POO drop in the last few hours.

REASONING:

Lifting sanctions and especially for a definite period is not what Iran is looking for. They will still keep the blockade and beside

the US is still keeping ...so far, their ships in the gulf.

Conspiracy theory: The US and Israel have already decided to strike Iran once again, but they want to make it look is completely Iran fault

is pace talks are not materialising, hence rumor of lifting sanction during negotiation talks.

Interesting times and lots of posturing going on especially from the US...and this imo is another bluff.

Thank you tricky125 and fordm

so glad I am not the only one making these conclusions.

tricky125

The US fracking expansion happened years ago in a phase when POO was again at high levels.

At the moment there are hundred of shut fracking oil wells in US, because uneconomical, but even if POO

reaches profitable higher levels, the operators over there, need certainty that it will stay profitable for long

before committing investments to reopen a well....is a kind of catch 22 situation.

Given the current situation dynamics, imo they will never reopen "the shot US fracking wells"

considering how much debt those operator carry, I suppose they rather make sure they repay banks debt

in stead of committing new investments, to produce more oil and consequently bring the POO down.

Its amazing how the market is disconnected with reality sometime.....

But in the end, the fundamentals always prevale.

The ticking of a $ up or down in oil price is irrelevant to BP and to the reality of the physical energy price

now and going forward...and yet, this is how market function most of the time.

Feeding on last minute news flow and emotional driven information.

Is good to be informed, but is wise to keep an eye on the whole dynamics of events affecting the mid/long time frame.

Oil price imo, has already shown that any pace talks and end of hostilities wont make it come down from these levels..

It has already retraced 2 times, for then getting back its losses.....

The disruption is real, and replacement oil from loss production doesn't come cheap, more over

the market could become disenchanted to any new pace talks, with less and less effect on oil price.

IMO higher price are here to stay for much much longer if ever.......

For sure, for BP sp there is only one direction, the test will be at 570/580 if we are going to break descending resistance trend

but technically it looks a nice bull flag.

The fundamentals are unelidable, projecting last quarter results BP has PE of 6, with its average trailing PE in the last 10 years at 20.

Moreover last quarter, high oil price contribution came only from March, Q2 results will be mind-blowing and for the whole 2026

PE will be even lower than 6....BP need a re-rate.

Maybe I am missing something here but even compared to other oil majors BP right now looks so undervalued, why?

On the geopolitics, Iran claims IT DID NOT STRIKED NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS WITH DRONES, and I believe them.

Don't forget that USA in in partnership in this war with Israel, and this kind of actions is very much Israel style.

The real terrorist in this conflict is the USA and Israel, and if one look closely there are so many reasons

for both countries to keep this conflict in the middle-east ongoing and to create divisions in that part of the world.

If you keep watching the BBC, they will never even hint at this eventualities, they are too busy kissing the master paycheque arses

and will never bite the hands that feed them........in any case its a media too politicized. Beside most od BBC news these days are about

frivolities, celebrities and time wasting. Anyhow if you think about it, the gulf states are direct competitors for oil/gas export to the USA.

With the escalation of the Ukraine war, the market got flooded by sanctioned oil/gas at a fraction of what was the market price, from several countries including Venezuela.

Oil from the Gulf is much cheaper to produce and therefore the USA find itself having to commit acts of piracy and sabotage to force consumer countries to buy their energy. How to you thing blow up the north stream pipeline from Russia to Germany, at the begin of the Ucraine war? They say you'll be judged be what you do not what you say, Well every single action from the USA in geopolitics, has been to create tensions, steal and increase the price of oil/gas.

US producers fracking producers have a breakeven pint at 70/80 $ per barrel, which is ever increasing with the enormous amount of debt those operators have, compared to other worldwide producers.

It may be a total conspiracy theory from me, I am not afraid to speak my mind and be wrong.....

But as I said judging from the actions, not what the media feed us, this is what I see,

higher oil price for the foreseeable future to please the US energy producers, and forever Israel

land grabbing. Any other reasons like the nuclear treat from Iran are what they are trying to make you believe.

Think about it! The USA knows where the Iranian enriched uranium is, buried metres below, they know the exact place.

They can always bomb that place from time to time, to make sure Iran will never get it right?

So why pace negotiation are not happening?

I rest my case. lol

....but most of my opinions are coming from the ability to use my brain.

Never liked for other to do my thinking and not afraid to make mistakes.

Sorry clever boy, don't watch BBC, just pay the fee otherwise they come begging at the door.

Try Aljazeera.