Member Info for LuckyLuciano

No is not that avocet123, is that I don't think I need to justify my self, why I am posting on this board.

But as you insist, well, the reason is because I am hoping to find interesting and intelligent exchanges

from which to learn something.

Happy?

Avocet123 lets say I have got plenty of time and money, and no need for a psychologist....

You come across annoyed by me posting what I see in the market and now

you try to discase you annoyance with a genuine interest on my motivations.

Avocet123

you got ot ask yourself, why you what me to stop posting......

...and silver is so close to support, is unnerving. Unless one is a shorter, best to be in cash imo.

Indeed its happening, LLOY recent 15% rise in just few days show a bubble bursting, same with silver parabolic 100/120..and gold.

Many are not talking about a correction but about how deep it will be.....

Google future negative opening is increasing....

Actually we seen it already at with the 2.30 drop.

What I am looking right now is Alphabet openin future price in red.....Yesterday they beat top and bottom numbers

but came out with $185 billion CAPEX when the estimate was for $120 for 2026.

So the extra $60 billions capex is equal to 6 months profit for next year, in other words their have a growth of 10/15% YoY

and their capex increased 54% from market forecasted....Hummmmm

Given the current negative sentiment on hyper spending in AI, imo this is not good.

Many tech companies have come out with good results and still got smashed, it does really looks like market want a correction.

Sorry to say this folks, but I saw videos of professional traders which hinted the possibility for silver, to find the 50ish support.

Hi imo most likely Ducati.

CaptainSwag you are always right.

If say they had cost of 30$ for an oz. At $40 they make $10 and 50$ they double..etc etc etc.

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Well yes sure, but most investors do go a bit deeper than that trying to figure out if the current sp is worth a punt.

My quick numbers on Fres are for a PE of 28/30 for current year 2025.

And all the way down to a PE of 9 if silver and price average current today leves.

So yes the market is not pricing in future profits, and imo the reasons are very clear.

1- we have been into higher prices too quickly, especially with recent steep drop, the market is not so sure where the average will be in 12 months time.

2-Lots of fear of a general indexes correction everywhere, indexes have topped a while ago, indicators are pointing to a correction and underlying sentiments are turning negative, lots of debt, which yes, is good for PM when it devalue USD, but as many point out here, debt is not only a US issue

hence people seek refuge in tangible value. It will be very interesting to see how is translated the increased value of physical silver/gold in to the miners/producers. Lots of middle entities will and are taking a ever growing cut out og premium, to compensate for volatility.

But beside all these dynamics, personally my biggest concern is the US Indexed and how this week will pass...

are quite negative

..that is what gets me. If one is to believe to all these theories of conspiring to bring the silver price down, well,

WTF would you gamble you money long term, with this danger around the market?

I mean 15-20% drop overnite in sp...is not nice and also, if I was determined to keep silver price down

because of the physical delivery issues with comex, well I very well know that if I do another 1 or 2 similar drop in the silver price,

I will definitely break the confidence of investors....what will be left then is the real physical demand, industries and retails demanding delivery.

On that, is anyone gest to gauge where is the real value and price, for sure the run to 121$ was bubble and speculators....imo

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbITsEcSb68

This is interesting, so apparently the recent drop in the tech space is due to Anthropic ??????

Mate they try anything to keep propping up the tech sector, they know that for USA this is the last chance saloon.

There we go, is turning lower again.......hummmm

Well, most if not all miners have risen from 4 to ten times in the last year.

Without going to make projected PE forecasts, is not bad, and I suppose if I was sitting on a say...8 time return in 12 months

and especially after recent sharp drop in silver price, I would start to take profits.

This is why imo, there is no more easy profit to make in the PM space. I have seen this with many other miners

sp is moving at best together with metal price, when it should move exponentially like X3 or more.

About the relation between Chinese physical price and COMEX on miner sp, imo investors look at the COMEX for reference

and therefore buy and sell from that clue. Even the Chinese Shanghai price beside the gat it created over Christmas period

is now in sinc and moving with the COMEX. Indeed one as to wonder how this gat occurred, been happened over Christmas

when the western financial market was thinking about drinking buzes and the Chineses (most don't celebrate Christmas) where busy to buy silver.

Maybe the balance of volumes and direction changed for a brief period.....the fact is that if the physical narrative, as consistency, one would expect this price gap, from Chinese physical and western comex to keep widening......

In short, imo anyone that buys silver miners now, is betting on the silver price to make soon new hight, as silver price and shares prices are moving exactly at the same pace.

Https://tvc-screenshots.investing.com/tvc_07c2a2d09351c7a301c6e06b63017346.png

I am closely watching the USD, if it break resistance, it may make another run higher....hummmm

And with indexes coming down and the new nomination, is not impossible.

I got distracted at US market open today, why did miners drop while silver and gold held firm?

===========================

IMO is because any further rise on miners would imply PM prices to remain at this level for at least the next 12 moths.

My quick and rough numbers on Fres with silver and gold at these levels was for a PE of 8 -ish but again in 12 months time.

In normal circumstances itss price would be much less volatile, but these are not normal circumstances, the market could turn in a flash

therefore many investors prefer cash than 12 months commitment. Consider that if we get a proper market correction. there will be opportunity to buy many stocks in many different sectors a big discount...

Thi si typical market behaviour, when market strat to go lower, only PM survive, gold more than silver, then when panic sets in also gold and silver get sold of and in theory the refuge would be the USD, not sure this time though...and obviously, if we get a market crash.

Silver apparently had resistance at 90ish, and so far it revealed correct.

IMV it will probably for a channel 75/90 ishhhh. Ideally narrowing down to a triangle for the next move, been up or down.

But as I said if the US indexes start to go on panic mode everything will/should get sold....don't matter what the fundamentals.

ALL imo DYOR

Maybe because US markets opens at 2,30?

Not looking good. JOLTS Job Openings at 5pm and tomorrow Google results.

I read from endless sources that Nasdaq is overdue for correction, NVIDIA is very much down already today, hummm

I am afraid but is there is a meaningful correction high PM prices wont save the miners in the short terms, hence I am out for

a little profit. Will be back if/when dusts settle. On the other hand I can't see miners prices going much higher from here

until the market has figured out where PM prices will be in say...12 months time, too much volatility, hence risk/reward

rather get out for now. Best of luck to all.

Yes good point, but one thing to consider, I have analysed the last 5 years or more profit and loss accounts for many silver/gold miners out there.

They have hardly made any profit and lots of losses....so even if wanting to produce more silver the question is, where the money are coming from

and what is the point, to spend and pay interest at such a depressed price. Aslo, often silver is a by-product of other metals hence supply demand dynamic is not so straight forward.

Balancing supply and demand normally works if there is a monopoly of the commodity, like with OPEC (and these days not even for them) but when supply si so fractioned and constrained to other factors, is less likely to work. imo

Well just to make a more balanced view of things.

If prices keep rising on silver, it may also happen that demand diminishes, silver been mainly an industrial metal

..yes has many applications and demands, but there are also many new technological developments and alternatives

which will come in play if silver gets too expensive.

Indeed imo, the reason why the market is very careful to reprice silver mines (which should be double toady prices with silver at 80/90$),

is because of uncertainties in current market dynamics. Possibly the most solid drivers for high silver prices, imo, is not demand from industries, industries are just booking silver supply because are scared supply may run out, or having to pay astronomical prices, but not because their demand has increased dramatically, no, the most solid drivers are adjustment for inflation for the last 10 years, and sudden demand from retail investors mainly for physical silver, and this is why the industries are worrying to run out...

These 2 drivers are quite solid for price support, my wild guess is that inflation as added some $30/oz bringing the price to next level below of support at 54ish, and retail demand together with industries does the rest, which is very much a moving price....Note that lost of industries are either booking silver supply via off take agreements and/or directly from miners producers, hence the effect on spot price is not directly measurable.

The dynamic of retail demand is very interesting and is one of perception.....As soon as the POG become "too expensive" perceived as too expensive, and demand from jewelry and retail investments dropped substantially, especially in India and China, (lower income economies) the demand for silver increased dramatically, but Indians and Chinese love the physical stuff. The one billion $ question is will this demand keep going? I think so. But of course we need to keep an eye on the USD and what happening with the Fed, by the way this week ADP employment number coming out, really hope they come our neutral for the market, I wouldn't like to see another crazy spike in silver price.