Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Indeed, the difference between the oil offline and the recent OPEC output increase, was only a maths exercise example

to possibly show that there isn't much willingness from OPEC to oversupply the market with oil.

I am sure they prefer much higher oil prices than more production for lower prices.

For USA, the recent oil price increase already pays for the cost of current Iran war daily, hence they are doing a war for free

and soon making a profit. The USA has al working out well for them, they will subsidise the Venezuelan heavy oil production

with the M7 hyperscalers AI ambitions, and in the middle east they are going all out to support the Jewish promised land ambitions,

after gaza now conquering Libanon. They won't touch Iran, which finding itself isolated is now attaching any and everyone, and ultimately

not been able to export any oil, will resort to focus its leverage on the straight of Hurmuz ,

with the hope that some heavy weight country in the region will negotiate with the USA and/or come to their resque.

No much OPEC can do to rebalance the oil market, and any rebalancing will be done at higher oil price for sure..

A fifth of 100Million boo is offline, that is some 20 mbod against recent OPEC increase of some 200kbod.

To invest in oil producing company right now, you have to believe that this conflict won't be resolved in a week or even in a month.

For the Iranian government, whoever that will be, is a matter of capitulate and bend to any USA/Israel requests or keep fighting for survival till the end.

They do have the support of the majority of the population, just look at the images on the streets when Khomeini was killed.

But beside newsflows and emotional opinions, the WTI oil price after correcting from the first day spike, is now closing every day higher

at this rate will be $80 by next Tuesday. So far this is how the market is pricing in oil the current situation, one as to try to immagine

in which way this war will end and with Israel involved I personally don't see an early end to it.

Greedy market makers..........since the initial spike up the share has been trading in a range of 0.10/0.15

and all of the sudden we get up to 0.50 spread...perfect way to destroy trades and scare investor away,

that is if you don't what to make the mm rich with you cash.

..Mind you, Chris Vermullen in the video at the end, says that in 2008/9 crash, money come out of PM miners and went into the metal, but is not correct.

Also gold and silver dropped, gold some 35%, the only asset that went the opposite way up during the credit crunch, was the USD.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zevdbqxoCwo

The above is one source of info I follow, before making some assumptions.

Just to clarify that I do not have any agenda, but simply comment based on other people point of view

with maybe a bit...but very little of my personal opinion.

Peace and love. L

...disclaimer, before I am accused to have an agenda. All my views have a degree of probabilities to be wrong,

including a US market correction and silver been constrained by its industrial fungibility.

The paradox is this.

In long terms, whatever metal is more useless, is the metal which will appreciate more.

IMO the basic fundamentals on which silver and gold could be compared, on the ground of rarity

and/or difficulty to extract/produce...is exactly that, how difficult it is to find the metal.

Silver strong point is more its byproduct nature, hence constrained supply rather than increasing demand.

Even recent run to $120, nobody can't deny that was more due to bottleneck in the physical market and paper speculation

rather than genuine demand from industries...and of course, the Youtube Asian Guy AG helped a lot.

The possibly 2 maind sector demanding silver, (photovoltaic and battery) have many candidates and alternative available.

For example the Samsung 1Kg. silver battery is designed and viable only for very high end EV market, one as to ask the question,

with current erosion of purchase power and living standard from the low, middle and also middle high income classes, who is going to buy a very very expensive EV car, when combustion engines are getting cheaper to buy and run?

In solar, I read of technologies working to limit the use of silver to micrograms if ever, copper does the job too in the space.

Look at the graph comparison of gold and silver prices, they are ever diverging from each other, imv in long terms

you will need more and more silver to buy an OZ of gold, specifically due to the fact that gold is useless.

Even the destruction of retail/jewelry demand for gold due to higher prices, as been replaced by deeper pockets and wiser trend

from banks and investment grade demand.

I was looking at how silver and gold reacted, after recent deep corrections, technically I noted that silver initially broke below

a very important support level, whereas gold did not. After that silver looked like bound ranged toward the downside, where gold was already breaking resistance levels....if not for yesterday US indexes panic drop, which levelled all PM and more.....

But right now, sentiments are toward prudence and panic. Even if the big 7 of the NASDAQ have corrected quite a bit, they are not exactly cheap.

More over the is a massive ecosystem of small companies including related to AI that financially are in peril

banks will be reluctant to lend further to those companies and possibly they are going to bring down the whole indexes..

IMO

Avocet123 sorry the joke.....but when you say "we" is it you and the voices you hear in your mind?!

The think about having an agenda....well for a philosophical point of view we all have an agenda, depending from which angle one

gives meaning to "agenda", so yes avocet123 you.....sorry.......avocet123, is right.

But yes, this is what I meant, some people cry only when things doesn't go the way they like to, and that's fair enough, but worst,

they start pointing finger to ghosts, failing in stead, to recognise when luck is on their side.

ducatiman996r

appreciate you post and agree with you. Each and every one of us has his/her own strategy to investing.

For Fres and in general, depending on at what sp one has bought in, it make sense to hold and ride the eventual storm coming

with the view that in possibly not too distant future prices of PM (and here imo there is a distinction between gold and silver or platinum)

price will be higher.

But in other words what I am trying to say is that if one looks at a graph for gold and for example Fres sp, will note that both prices, since the massive correction end of Jan. are moving in exact sinc.....Even factoring out a correction from the US indexes, this close correlation of gold/miners, implies that

gold should rise imo a bit too much for decent returns from the miners and possibly, given that the miners have raised, x3 or x4 compared to gold (for example) then the miners sp is much more at risk of a correction than gold.

In other words, for a 3% drop in gold price, we are going to see a 10% drop in miners prices....Risk/reward not good.

On JPMorgan, pl let me rephrase it, I am 1000% sure that they rigged the market, every financial entity and unfortunately these days also politicians, are riggin the market....this is why I call it financial mafia, although these days the mafia is much more honest than, financiers and politicians, without generalising and apologies for those honest among them.

But the point is either one see facts as the are, data and numbers, or is better if one doesn't enter the investing space what so ever.

My point is, how is possible to factor in future human behaviours, if no data is available?

In the case of JPMorgan, on could predict that next time silver reach about say.. $100 they will short it again, margin call will rise and all that.

But what about if this time, they have decided to gol long up to $200 and then short it from there or whatever....

They "financial institutions" have the money and the power to do whatever they like...trust me.

And here, I like to make a distinction between gold and silver. Is not a coincidence is is silver the metal used for rigged speculations from the financial mafia. Why? Because silver is one and foremost an industrial metal, graviti would and will bring it down one way or another.

Do you really think that with silver at say $200 (no idea what level would be critical for silver) the industries will keep using it more and

Can not believe some people invests with the conspiracy theory in mind, maybe I am reading some posts the wrong way.

Anyhow, to re-balance this theory of US market opening when Uk market is closing, it goes both ways...

For example Fres as been kind of immune to yesterday brutal sell off, and as often happens PM recover during the

Chinese/Asian market it is benefitting for it, although PM are lower than yesterday.

My view is still the same, based on past records when the main indexes correct, everything correct.

Have a look at past performances of PM miners and even PM itself, in 2000, 2008/9 and 2020, they all drop.

I suppose is a matter of one believing, the there will be soon a meaningful drop of main indexes, or not.

Beside correlation with US indexes though, for PM after the recent massive correction,

(and again, without taking the contrarian view of JPMorgan manipulating the market) it looks in my view,

very unlikely that they will reach new price hights for a while, not before the stock market will re-set.

Just a balanced opinion from me, no agendas.....all the best.L

It occurred to me that the same information used to produce the charts is used to feed the trading algorithms. It would be fascinating to know how they are set up to deal with these situations.================

Fascinating indeed, automated trading "the machines" are set up by many financial institutions and also private individuals, each and every one as its own slightly different codes and sets up, but the fascinating thing is that to feed these machines for executions, the coders don't input just had data and numeric values based on statistical events, but also they try to feed in sentiments, linguistics and other probabilistic events more of a human nature.

So for example if in an important speech from the Fed chair Powel, some key words indicating future intention to rise rate are mentioned, like "high inflation" or high prices ect, then these machines are programmed to buy the USD automatically. The thinking in the financial world , and Epstain was one of these involved in this thinking, is that everything in the universe is/has a number, and therefore it can be computed. Only thing is, fortunately there is Quantum mechanics which from time to time, makes sure humans don't gets too much carried away.

Hi Ducati

I did a bit of research on Hecla and wrote it of completely.

It was promissin till they recently sold Casa Berardi which use to contribute some 2/3 of their gold production.

Note that they lately released fully year production and 2026 guidance, on the same day they released news of the sale of some 90koz Year

gold producing asset. So a bit of gray area if 2026 guidance will be revised due to the sale of Casa Berardi.

The sp got sold off quite a bit after these news.....and is still down some 35% from peak.

I personally see better value in First Majestic, similar silver eq than Hecla but $5bil market cap cheaper.

Https://tvc-screenshots.investing.com/tvc_367ecc2f245b20ec2773f4ad7eafc1c2.png

China’s UBS SDIC Silver Futures fund, which has recently emerged as an important marker of the rout in precious metals, was suspended for an hour at the start of trading to protect investors after falling by its maximum 10% for several days. The fund promptly fell by the same magnitude when it reopened on Friday. "You’ve seen a lot of these big crowded positions being unwound very, very aggressively and that’s led to massive flows," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne. ==================================

IMO given that silver has pierced through the 70 support and is not showing sign of any meaningful bounce, and adding the general negative sentiments from the main indexes, there is more downward pressure to come. I saw analysts videos talking about 50ish been the next strong support.

If I may Ducati, unless you are trading the silver spreadbet, analyse every single chart candle is not going to help you with your investment decisions.

Sleep is very important.

Avocet123 please explain.

You said and I almost entirely agree, that is almost irrelevant what someone post on investors boards,

to affect share price or metal price!

So what is that you are implying.......it seems that you are the one that believe to be able to affect sp with your posting.

For a share like Fres, of international status and more than 1 million transaction daily, indeed whatever people posts on these boards is irrelevant.

As I said before, mainly I have plenty of money and lot of time in my hands , but yes of course, I do have investment interest as well.

But for the last time, trust me, is not my intention to influence people opinion with my posts. I do understand that these days

with the event of "influencers" and AI, lost of young people have lost the value of personal discovery and critical thinking,

but because I am not one of them, it would be in dissonance with my persona, to believe I can do that.

You see, if I believed to be able to influence other people opinion, then I would stop learning and become the teacher

and I don't wanna do that, otherwise life would become so boring that would be not worth living.

hermm sorry! I though this was the philosophy investor board.

LOL...yes CaptainSwag, I am the chairman.

But no seriously, be careful to follow blindly conspiracy theories and the medias, just a honest advise.

Idealistic investing is expensive, this is why I rather do charity then to take the contrarian view, just for the sake of principles

or protest. The investing game is what it is, either one accept the rules or get burned sooner or later......

Imo the danger of following blindly the Asian guy videos (which after the recent silver correction has loosed a bit of credibility)

the danger is to lose completely sight of other dynamics and become biased.

I posted recently a very interesting youtube video, from a real person (actually it was an interview) I think he was the head of a famous USA bullion company. Funny enough even last night this video was resurfacing in my mind, because it was full of new knowledge and real info, not conspiracy theories or in any case, facts that don't make any difference for my investment decisions.

For example if JPM shorts or not the silver market is a fact that doesn't make any difference. Either I accept it and play the game or bail out.

At best I could try to use JPM shorts to my advantage, but good luck with that, if you are not an insider you'll likely get burned trying to predict

when to get out or in depending on strategy by following JPM. Hence if one has something against silver price manipulation best not to play the game

because every penny you lose is like giving it to JPM. But back to this video, this industry leaded head of a bullion company was very specific and adamant

in explaining how the physical silver market was experiencing an unprecedented bottleneck in the supply chain.

I wonder if JPM analyst saw the same happening and placed the shorts also with this in mind.

So just to counterbalance the bullish Asian guy, remember this issue which is not going to go away anytime soon.

Especially for the retail physical silver investors (which represent a volatile and therefore unpredictable demand) the silver industry

is reluctant to invest in facilities which would create more volumes and flow, therefore some of the shortage of physical silver availability

was not only due to high demand but also short supply, due to lack of infrastructures, interest and investments. Silver very high volatility doesn't help

here, because (same with cryplos) it is not the quality that identify a safe haven status.

There will be some short lived bounce back up, but yep, it looks like want to go for the 48/54 range.

IMO it looks like Fres projection for 2026, has to be in the $60/oz silver price average.

For 90 mil Ar ozeq at $35 net margins coms to $2.15bil or £1.65 PE at today sp =15

Dark_Knight2020

numbers don't square, am I missing something?

Based on 2024 results Net Profit is some 15% of EBITA.

If you keep those low metal prices one would assume that they don't change much hence, where does come from 6. Net Income Projection (2025)

| Scenario | EBITDA | Net Income |

|----------|--------|------------|

| Conservative | 2.0bn | ~1.4bn |= This should read ($227 mil. 2024 net profit + (2.0bn-1.55bn)= 677ml net profit

| Mid case | 2.4bn | ~1.7bn |=...same reasoning as above etc.....

| Upside | 2.8bn | ~2.0bn |

-------------------------------------------

My reasoning goes that if they are making profit, at constant fixed costs not adjusted for inflation or else, any higher metal price should

be all net profit. I know is not like that but these are 5 minutes calculation with whattever date are available...

Anyhow especially for the base case scenario (silver at $40/oz) I think these are much closed to reality. Note that AISC generally get lower only

if grade increases and not if price of the metal or volume/production increases (in the case of a profitable operation of course).

Do you mean "higher margin call" ?

According to the analysts FRES is presently trading at 6.5 x earnings.

It therefore can't be described as being expensive vs a sector average of 28 x earnings

At 6.5x earnings it's actually cheap.

=========================

Now some accuse me to have an agenda...but nobody bother to point out this massive bulsh@it above.....

Is only normal to go against opinion that differ or are viewed as threatening to one interest, ego ar whattever.

But more often than not, this behaviour can be very damaging for mental health and in this case also the bank account.

I have clearly stated in the past, what I bough and what I sold and why, so no agenda and nothing to hide, is sad to see

how anchored are some people to own convictions and believes, even to the point to become paranoid.

About the initial comment above, please provide a link to analyst name, and researched based on what/number,

..and also what is the meaning of "presently trading"....actually don't bother mate. Any analyst that uses the definition "presently"

is not worth consideration.

Avocet123 make of it what you like bro. I give up.