Member Info for LuckyLuciano

CaptainSwag let me rephase it.

In other circumstances with the USD been smashed soo much, silver would be flying

thing is its trapped in the technicals, but it looks a bullish triangle also thanks to the USD accelerating drop as I type.

Have to say very strange price action all over the place, gold, silver and USD, they seems to be in sinc, but not reacting as they should

considering how much USD has dropped in the last few hours, it has a support (very weak) at 95.485 just gone trough and lower.

IMO very bullish for precious metals, more rise to come overnight in the Asian market....

Have to say, what is keeping silver up right now is only the USD.

Looks like is wanting down so badly.

For precious metals imv, 2 factors are now the main drivers the USD and geopolitics.

Fundamentals short terms are a bit stretchy for silver, and technicals too.

Hence is consolidation phase, hopefully in the upper Fib. range of 107/117.

Saying that, if for example Trump bomb Iran or the USD keeps going loweer...as it is (techs looks horrible), then this recent pull back for silver

is going to be a blip for new hight.

Even an average above $100 silver and $ 5000 gold (and this is without factoring in Fed cuts, Trump and the USD)

implies double share prices for miners from here. Happy days

Silver range with 2 supports

https://tvc-screenshots.investing.com/tvc_f4cebf94bba946fce18edf71ff443ceb.png

Problem is Trump is financially insolvent, been put in charge of USA is one thing...and congrats for the FICA peace price, but to mess with US economy?

A history of bankruptcy should be enough, to make him come down to earth and stick to football. Let's join the BRICS, before they close the window of opportunity and we are left to trade with a blackmailing protagonist.

I have sold out due to lack of sp appreciation.

I do look very much at fundamentals and Tharisa imo is in a fantastic position going forward,

but I am also trying to capitalise from momentum and general market sentiments and I feel these last two

factors are not in sinc.

For sure Ths market maker doesn't help with Ths shares not been traded electronically and with a huge spread.

More over, i note the spread changes erratically and makes the pain of having to pay a huge spread much worst.

I don't know much about Ths management but yes, more transparency on money spent where and when,

would be a big bonus considering that THS is not even traded in the AIM market.

The potential of Karo is great, I am sure it would help the sp if investors had more info available.

Maybe someone could send a email to the company secretary....

As I said, plenty fishes in the sea and right now, with metal prices on the move

needed some cash elsewhere.

With current and projected metal prices, priority in now to finance Karo and start producing.

I can't believe that banks are happy to hold paper money, in stead of investing in hard assets,

there much be a queue of banks, beggin to take their money at Tharisa head office.

Q1-2025 beat Q1-2024 by a mile.....thanks to higher recovery rates. Meaning not just higher production but lower costs.

Add to that a PGM price on the rise.

Cash machine.

Recovery rate hugely increased, expect much higher production this year, with much higher metals price.

At these prices it can be financed straight from FCF.

Indeed that would be better new for sp, anyhow, if not mistaking Q1 production update is due any day now.

Maybe some words on Karo...!?

Yes at today prices, is more than $200million profit coming from PGM, chrome pricing rising too and doubling production

by end of 2027.

Projected PE of 2 ? Is just a matter of time before the market re-rate Ths. IMO

Indeed, Jerome Powell, Iran (sadly) and possibly, even if just my conspiracy theory, latest news over the week end

that the US major oil companies, have declared Venezuela investibile.

Reason been, I thought the USD got some support of late, from the kidnapping of Maduro

and the bully stance of Trump rhetoric. Now they are realising there there are no shortcuts

to repay the national debt interest. Up to $2 trillion this year, if the US court declares the tarifs unlawful.

....that will be another catalyst. 14th January

Crazy, even buying silver today, when available 1oz goes for £80/100.

And heavier size are pre-order....it seems kind of true that the west or at least London is running out of physical.

To think that the paper leverage is (I heard/read) 400:1, this is scary.

Will it start a total meltdown for financials and indexes?

Hmm

...by the way, bought 6 Kg. of silver during Xmass, had to way 2 week for delivery for something that should have been next day delivery.

Now the same website "Bullionbypost" has kind of run out of silver ingots.

They have become all Pre-order (not in stock) the only available is "for storage"...good luck with that.

Any advice on where can I buy silver for next day delivery is welcomed.

Hi, have checked the rebalancing story for the past years, it normally happens in January.

It is a 50/50 probability and i suppose it needs to be put in a wider contest of short versus long sentiments of PM and Silver.

If I where a portfolio manager, this time around with many financial institutions predicting sustained PM and silver prices,

I would think twice to sell silver, maybe a little but much less than usual.

Indeed for the last 2+ years banks have been net buyers of PM, especially the physical stuff, this trend is a game changer

for the dynamic of prices, and portfolio management policies IMO.

In any case, whatever will bring the rebalancing, will be a no event compared to what is happening in the physical space.

I am reading that in 2025 the silver market estimated deficit was about 7000t, and to think that Mexico the world largest national bank reserves is at 6800/t.

It means that even as precious metal status, there is no silver around. With so many factors in favour of higher prices, imo there is no turning back.

For disclosure, I am not invested in Fres.

Have a nice Sunday

VanVan

Are these AI videos not worth watching? Are they to promote a vestied interest? This is new territory to me. I thought the Nick Ward , Gold Bullion Partners was very informative and credible. But would love to know if I should take it all with a large pinch of salt. Thanks=====================

Hi, just my thoughts when I started of recent to see lots of AI "the asian guy" videos on silver.

BUT, remember that before those AI generated videos, there have been and still there are many more non AI videos, of professional

investors which are super bullish on precious metals and silver. If anything the "Asian guy AI videos" is adding an angle on the silver and possibly gold market, which is coming from the BRICS and specifically China....

Have to say everything the Asian guy video says are 100% true and if one believe in fundamentals can not, not take note of it.

Have just bought 6 Kg. of silver because imo we are witnessing a reset on precious metal prices.

Consider that PM and silver since 2020, have increased in price mostly due to inflation, but there are so many other fundamental factors still to be priced in. US rate cuts, dedollarization, and supply demand deficit accentuated by recent technological innovation all requiring silver in particular to be developed. Add to that imo there is a geopolitical conspiracy against USD, not just based on economics nut also on ideologies, and Trump with Venezuelan like shows is not helping either. I see today prices as support for further gains on these matetal, including platinum, where I have invested in Tharisa. Have runned many share prices forecast on PM miners for 2026, and most are projected for a PE below 5 and even 3 for some of them, all at today prices of course. If one believe that prices will go even higher, this is an opportunity not to be missed.

..................Reality is I woke up this morning very bored and so much time available, possibly too much coffee already, anyhow…

There are may variables to consider from a starting point of 194p.

2026 capita spend will be some $47 Million higher.

194p share price for 2026, doesn’t consider profits from Ths Chrome operation, which represent 2/3 of revenue and Chrome price are on the rise.

Also, lots of capital spend is going straight in to accounted assets, therefore increases book value.

194p for 2026, is a rough average with PMG at £2400, when Platinum was priced at $1900/oz, that is mid Dec25. £1900 may well become strong support (technicals) for 2026, therefore averages for 2026 will be higher. For every $100 Pl increase Ths sp at PE 4.2 should rise by 21.5 p in share price…crazy.

This is why the market by pricing in Ths sp the same % of PMG/Pl increase IMO, is not dynamic and is failing to recognise fundamentals and potentials here.

Finally, and possibly the worst negative for Tharisa, is a total melt down of US indexes.

With Platinum been perceived more an industrial metal than precious, a panic in the market, like 5% day drops of the US indexes, would affect almost every single share out there and more platinum than gold/silver shares.

Last Friday it was interesting to see negative payroll data and the USD and the Indexes making new high. Disconnections and dislocations all over the place, is happening day by day. Among all these madness, precious metals, but more interestingly metals in generals are appreciating, even copper is becoming almost a “precious” metal.

China is on another planet, technologically, philosophically and frankly economically, Chinese economic policies and Chinese friend and international connections, are ever dictating market prices and forward directions.

How desperate is the USA, to steal Venezuelan oil, good luck with that, are they hoping to sell it to the Europeans?!

To conclude, if you are still reading, thank you for your attention to this rant. With price of gold so strong and current international affairs, imo Ths is in a good place. US indexes doesn’t seems to wanting to dramatically correct, which is a positive, this might just be in range for 2026, with a positive for metals coming from Trump shenanigans and strong trend demand from the economies, including future rates cuts.

IMO one thing is for sure, Ths share price should be the least at 194p, but been the greedy market maker of past perception of Tharisa operation/skeleton, its price is some 60% cheaper, with lots potential to appreciate further, we are talking of a PE of 4.2, for a company that as 30 years production in the ground.

I will say one more time…..CRAZY

Have a nice week end.

Interested to hear someone opinion, although it seems I am the only one invested in Tharisa…loll

Anyhow, will start by pointing out that I have compared the last 5 years sp graph, of few PGM producers, against the Platinum price.

Beside some fluctuation in prices throughout the past years, in the end, those shares and this sector all follow the same patens, starting at the same prices and ending more or less at the same prices and generally following the Platinum price.

Reason for this exercise was to see if those Ths “Skeletons” of the past years, have affected the share price in any meaningful way, compared to other miners in the sector.

Result was negative, so I am assuming that if indeed there was some mismanagement or events, that affected Ths, these have been priced in already. Possibly the pricing-in of past negatives skeletons happened when Ths share price, failed to register on 6th Oct 2025, the Court ruling Royalties in favour of Ths, for some $67 Million.

Indeed, Ths sp didn’t move on the 6th Oct. positive news and carried on downwards, together with Platinum and possibly PGM prices. I do not have an historical South Africa PGM price and therefore, I am using Platinum as reference although maybe I should add Palladium, as next higher contributor of PGM basket price.

So, my rough assumption for reference and comparison purpose, is that in 2025 the market has priced in half of potential Royalties payback, or $ 33.5 Millions, which together with the profit from operation makes $49 Million net profit for 2025.

Other basic assumption/data are Ths average sp for 2025 financial year at 70p.

Average Platinum and PGM prices for 2025 at $1150 and $1600

Number of shares 293 Million, therefore EPS at 16.7p and PE at 4.2 (average)

One thing to note, which IMO is evidence that the market, is failing to price in the recent PMG price rise, is that PMG Miners and their sp in the last 3 months, has followed the exact same % increase of PMG and/or Platinum price.

Back to Tharisa, my projection for 2026 sp is based on the averages of 2025, and therefore a PE of 4.2. Moreover, is considering that any PMG/Pl price increase is Net Profit and is projected with the latest know PGM price of mid Dec or $2400/oz.

I now $2400/oz is not representative of Q1/26, because is taken at the end of that period (higher prices) but it is also lower than current prices, hence is possibly the closest till now, as average…

For 2026 production of 160k/oz, profit for $800 PGM price increase from $1600/2025 would be $120Million plus $ 15.5 Million from 2025 operation ($49 Million - $33.5 Royalti payment).

This gives an EPS of 46.24p and with 2025 average PE of 4.2 gives a sp target of 194p.

Given the current geopolitics and market trends on the PMG space, I know, my post can only make people lough and I don’t blame you.

Reality is I woke up this morning very bored and so much time available, possibly too much coffee already, anyhow…

There are may v

Yes Mike good point. Have to say is such a fast changing financial environment that one has to wonder if the Nasdaq grouth company funadametals are overstetched, or, if is the tangible asset base producers company fundamentals that have been left behind. Well at least Thatisa is not selling chrome and Pgm to other miners...lol. I am seeing a massive biforcation in policies, economies and really destiny between Chian and the USA. Funny enough Ths sits in the middle of this geopolitical games, selling a product which helps the green revolution, but needs the carbon based industry ,( to a certain extent) to survive. Call me cospiracy theorist but today, just when bad numbers came out for US payroll, they seized another Venezuelan oil thank.....the UDS after tanking the first 10 minutes, revesed to new recent hights. The US is these days is supporting their narrative with, short terms, expedients and hill based gimmick thanks to theatrical clown Trump. Even copper is becoming a safe haven, (is 1p worth more in nominal terms or in market price)? That to say that, dedollarization is affecting everything tangible and of use. It could not be any different, double trouble for overleveraged government, we had a hint of negative intrest, where you give your saving to the banks, and you should pay intrest to them.....now the financial mafia is going all out, steling what they can ( poor souls) around the world, heavy oil, burgers, even Greenland would do. Please don't ask me what they are going to do with it.. ..imo they have already lost the fight, China is already in another dimention, economically, technologically and socially. Anyhow sorry for the degression, as said before, if Ths MM would not be so greedy/lazy whatever, the sp should already be above 200p. Investors can see Ths destiny, 15 moths, 350k PGM produclon at who knows, $3000/oz + chromium which no doubt will be higher than today prices. I feel the skeletons of the past, whatever they are.....are not anymore relevant with the current state of affairs, if only people would start to live in the present, if not for investment purpose for mental health sake.

Indeed USD is a pivot level either way...

looking at the graph since 04/25, it has bounced bounced up or down from here many times.

Not sure if to call it a support or a resistance level, but considering that US debt keeps growing, if wasn't for lates shenanigans from Trump which imo

has supported USD, then, the index could be making new lows .

Today is going down after payroll, let see if next week it continues...

ps

Keep an eye on US indexes.

Payroll 50k instead of 66k.

Quite a crucial supporting data for precious metals going forward.

Very much watched by the financial industry.

Of late I was watching UDS rise and these disappointing payroll, could/should take the brakes off

PM put or recent consolidation, and to new heights...

Lets see.