Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Adw198 agree with you about this board....aside some use of offensive vocabulary.

My post "I whish" is not a complain about information on Thx, plenty of that and accurate, it is the lack of comparison with other

miners based on sentiments and of course fundamentals.

When I do shopping, I tend to compare products and we are talking about trivial decisions, why not doing it also when investing

thousand of £?

For example Thx with Metal Exploration is a good and easy match, and I am definitely in favour of Thx.

But to compare Thx to POG is a bit misleading, because actually all the gold miners right now are oversold, compare to the current POG.

It still as to be see if POG will come back up to new highs or look for a lower support.

If you like my take, and I am going to put my neck out here...awaiting for some to take revenge, anyhow, my take is that after the rate cut

POG as been very much subdue, which is not a good signal.

Add to that Trump/Xi trade agreement which "should" favour risky assets and the US earning season still in full swing

(although with yesterday numbers from Microsoft and Facebook) there are signs of coming to an end.

Well I still think POG is looking for 3850ish, if that happens, I will see which miners imo offers a better short and long term prospect.

Balanced66

before talking about morals...and jumping to conclusion, you should get into the habit of asking questions.

I don't normally post my trades but here, due to people calling other peoples names, I see the need to...

While I have been posting in the last few days, bought at 55.8 for 30k and sold today at 58.25 for a small profit.

So my negative tones, which I call realistics, where while I was holding THX shares.

That is my moral.

Has I said THX like many other gold miners has its own strengths and weakens, imo some shares are for holding and other are for trading

and.....all of them move one direction or another when POG does its own things.

At this sp level, and bearing in mind that Thx due to its nature is much more volatile than most miners except pure minow explorers,

well at this sp level I personally wouldn't hold Thx for LOM extension news of Douta PFS. As I said those are replacement production newss NOT production expansion, hence more or less already priced in....Then again if those news come out at a particularly oversold depressed sp will/would have a different impact then if they were to come out at the top of sp.

But ultimately and ever more for THX the POG is what drives thx and the sector.

I have dozens of international gold miners analysed, some better than other and some time I manage to figure out the price action for every one of them,

which is different due to many factors. For THX I find it very volatile to the POG and not thanks to the MM spread....the lazy Londoners of course.

Yes Thx sp will go up, but not before POG as consolidated and start to move higher. Right now at the back of my mind there is Thetha Gold mines,

some £85 million market cap, with 6 millions high grade reserves/resources and cash available to build a mine to produce some 100k/OZ

in 2 years time. And by the way SA, is internationally considered a relatively safer place to operate than Nigeria or CD...trust me on this.

So what shall I do, top up on TGM for a 5-6 bags or more depending on POG, in 2 years time, or buy and hold THX . Na thank you, I will take my chanses

and keep morally trading Thx.

Someone would come up with some meaningful calculations and comparison, of fundamentals and valuation,

among gold miners in "similar" geographical jurisdiction, or not for that matter.

Many factors could be taken in consideration, including ASIC, Reserves (market cap/reserve), LOM, Management, Geopolitical risk, undeveloped reserve grade, cash in hand, projected production increase or EPG etc..

Maybe one day, I will come up with a model to quickly compare miners if are overvalued or undervalued.

I am sure some fund managers do have these tools.

For now most investment board, are clogged by opinionated investors, each and everyone trying to pull readers opinions,

(understandably so) toward his/her own interest.

Would be nice to see some of these bullish opinion, been backed by data and numbers comparison to a meaningful benchmark,

not just backed by pure faith and believes on own interest.

Well, just to conclude this tread from me.

First my congratulation for holding THX all this time, you definitely deserve all the profits and more

especially for a share of this nature.....I am not speculating if it is luck or vision but please, be aware that the word "fundamentals"

for an explorer that needs to come up with a new project quickly, to replace existing production (I can't see Douta PFS exceeding 95k/OZ)

well fundamentals are what they are..........Reality is THX valuation is very much thanks to the very low ASIC or high profitability,

for if wasn't for this factor, its sp would be below 50p for sure. This imo is much more of a fact than, reserves at Douta, of indeed at Segilola.

As I said this is a company that needs to find some 200k more at Segilola and expedite a project at Douta.

This is not an expansion phase its a replacement operation. You need to be a bit more realistic and make sure don't confuse hopes with opportunities.

For sure, THX sp will keep rising with such a low AISC (hopefully the same at Douta ?!) and current POG trend, the sp has only one direction and that is up,

but it could be argued if these factors can be called fundamentals.

I am sorry to be the devil advocate, but a bit of reality some time is necessary. Some people see "the company and it's fantastic outlook" other see

the urgent need to extend and replace a depleting mine.

As I said, THX sp will rise out of macro not fundamentals, trust me.

Isa I think in you mind, you are making a bit of confusion between traders and shorter.

For whatever that means, you can call mental whoever you like.

In my view, long term investors or trader, if you really like to set a minimum time limit for holding a share,

it doesn't make any difference. If long time holders get more return for holding, it is because they take longer risk

on been invested and viceversa, so no difference what so ever. Shorting in stead makes a big difference and on this

there could be a long debate, including what is "naked shorting" and why there is hardly ever a correspondent "naked long"

unless you are sponsored by the Fed and the financial mafia.

Anyhow back to trading (really don't understand where al this animosity comes from..) imv everything is a trade, life is a trade

when you get marry you trade, relationships are trades and so on. Indeed the danger od been a free thinker, is when from trading we become

attached, attached to a person and attached to a share or a company. Talking about the fundamental value of THX, well all I see are the OZ that will be added for sure to the LOM. Possibly a premium to that out of de-risking future project development, by gaining more time and more free cash flow, all this with POG remaining above 3500. But DFS or else IMV as little or not fundamental value, beside news flow sentiments which depending on the sp of Thx

at the moment or release, could even go against the sp.

How much say...200k extra reserves will add to the sp is not an easy calculation because in the current market price of Thx, there are

many different values, including producing OZ, developable exploration OZ, unexplored licenses and high profitability.

But because of the last factor ie high profitability is likely that OZ for LOM extension will be valued at the highest levels.

I consider my self a short term trader, been 1 day or 1 year. Unfortunately the cycles of the main indexes doesn't allow

to have any different views. I congratulate those that are able to hold for much longer and make handsome profits, although

I suspect these people especially the loud, are telling only half of the truth.

I wonder how many times and for how long they might be stuck on shares underwater at loss, awaiting the miracle.

Only for this reasons, I am pretty happy to accept a small loss in my trading than in stead, seen my investment slowly

shrinking day by day, hoping that one that something will happen to change all this. I couldn't bare the mental pain and the stress

and anxiety that comes with it.

Is only natural to seek the best cheapest entry level possible. We are all trades, some shorter terms than other, if you are not a

fund manager committed to seek dividend out of an investment... or similar, you are a trader.

No doubt thought that averaging down for Thx, given current economic climate and POG action is a very good strategy.

Techs are not self fulfilling events and actually, it could be said the opposite......that events are self fulfilling of tech data.

We should need a nice philosophical debate to discuss this, but I suppose life and time is too short to come to any meaningful conclusion.

In the end we are all here to make money, that is more than what we invested in the first place, and this is the driver of our actions.

We can present our intentions with kind or even inspirational narratives, the end result is the same, profit.

I find it fascinating how data and tech, soon or later end up to repeating themselves, with a rhythm throughout time frames...

The puzzling and some time cheeky way this happens is what makes many/some people disregard completely technical analyses,

in favour of fundamentals and outright predictions of future events based on pure fait and believes.

I remember that when I started trading/investing in shares, one strong believe I had for success, was my liking for maths and finance,

and the course I did in bookkeeping and accounting.

Is better I don't tell you how much money I lost out of those convictions, and the disappointment i had when seeing shares

supposed to go up dropping like stones.

This is to say that just because a share as a PE of 2 it doesn't make this share necessary a buy out right.

Many things can be said going against the PE of 2, and indeed the market is always right. For Thx due to its intrinsic

fundamentals it seems to me its a very volatile share, more than many others. On one hand we have max profitability

and possibly good grade, on the other is Nigeria and LOM. Hence its sp will move much faster at the top for then going much lower at the bottom.

Possibly a good averaging down from these levels....IMO DYOR

For Thx 54.35 is the support, but with the MM paying with spread I suppose it has touched already today the support at 55.

If POG doesn't bounce back up with the Fed rate which is still days away, imo is likely THX sp will look for 50s.

Jammin999 same here. After a decent run on REE and Gold stocks I am 80% cash and watching closely POG and other events.

THX is definitely on my shopping list, only thing I am not so sure is how POG will react once a bottom is found.

Some say it will bounce back up very quickly, in stead of consolidating, in any case first test is with the coming Fed rate cut.

My guess is that POG will not react and possibly keep sliding downward looking for meaningful support.

Money flow have changed in the last few days, to favour risk on assets, this is conjunction with a way overbought POG,

this correction was inevitable. Next support is at 3850/3830 if that goes 3500 is on the card.

If POG and relative sp of miners, if profitability and relative profitable stocks were all in synchrony, to the day or minute, then

there wouldn't be opportunity out there to trade and make profits.

The market moves as much as by number/data, as by sentiments and emotions

this is why some time there are opportunities out there.

POG just entering a new short term low.

It will look for new support, after CPI failed to push it up, next is the Fed rate cut.......

Recently someone posted that is better to buy LSE shares than Canadian or other jurisdictions for that matter, because of the exchange rate/fee..

Not really with Thx, I mean more than 3% spread is almost 1% more than the exchange fee from £ to C$.

Greedy London MM, they will slowly lose out, pushing away companies from listing in UK.

Add to that, Rachel Reeves planning to limit the holding of foreign companies in a ISA. Is she trying to make MM richer as if

they don't make enough money and risking zero of their own.

Good point pickedpeck. Imv Thx sp above a certain level, is heavly dragged down by scarce visibility. In other words they desperatelly do need to add 2/3 years to LOM to start to conand a PE of 4 or 5 ...add to that, that to value the only gold mine in Nigeria is not a easy task, where the comparison comes from? It's very subjective. We got the US CPI out, slightly better for POG, it should be a good excuse to lift the POG past recent resistance at 4170ish. Failing that imv the potential for a deeper correction down to 3950ish is real.

Https://tvc-screenshots.investing.com/tvc_c1c0618985d9e0819b7087acb4e0b8ac.png

Resistance just below 4100 could have worked in a very strong upward trend. But after the huge red candle at the top

imo the upward trend for gold is broken, or at least the very strong upward trend (momentum).

This as to be a consolidation period imo, hence price will look for a meaning full support.

Interesting to watch today what POG will do after the US CPI data out at 1.30pm.....

As thing stand, imo POG might even look for 3950 support, in any case definitely consolidation phase.

https://tvc-screenshots.investing.com/tvc_2cd30b7cd551cb0e726b79d4492aa070.png

For the technical out there. POG bouncing up just above 4000 is not support for any meaningfully tech metric. Any thoughts ?!

Sorry IBABFO2.0 gold price not having any impact is a big statement.....

In the charts I see Thox support at 55p as much as POG support at just below 4000$.

Among all this there is CPI coming out on Friday, hence personally will wait Friday noon

for any re-entry.

On coming newsflow from Thox imo, the effect on Thox sp will depend on the price itself.

If sp is at these levels or lower, the market (on good news of course) will push the price up

but if sp will be near all time higher I am not so sure anymore, it could even be sell the news

considering that POG is in a consolidation phase that might take quite a while to mature.

In other words I might be wrong but can't see POG making new highs for now....hence any sp gain

might be sold.....DYOR

POG is looking for below 4000 support, and imo, it won't go anywhere before Friday official US CPI data. Best been patient...

If I can answer your last sentence TOO, its is because in a Periodic Table, so far, there are only 118 know elements.

TheOracleofOmaha

I am not saying that tech and historical data price is everything one needs to know.

But for sure is fundamental to gauge future trends. If these toosa have been around for thousands of years

there must be a reason, don't you think?

I have just watches 2 interesting videos on precious metals and financial credits....

Kind of opposite views, one claiming that recent POG sell of is due among other reasons to margin calls and lack of liquidity in the financial market.

Indeed lots of ETF and CFD is priced in the POG, these are not physical gold holders and can sell at the click of a button, when they need the cash.

It venture to say that often in these cases most distressed investors tend to sell the winner to cove the loosed, sort of speak.

The other video in claimed that POG will go much higher, maybe after the current consolidation, and especially if we are going to have a US indexes

resetting/ meaningful correction, where cash will be moving from stocks to precious metals.....

There are mid long terms events and need few macro event in place to happen.

Short terms finally we get the official release of CPI on Friday and next week Fed rate cut.

Will be watching on the sideline to see what happens to POG, before any top up or new entries.

...on a serious note, is exactly because some prices may have been manipulated or distorted,

that the only credible reference data, are the technicals.

ddubya it is exactly the opposite "imo" of what you say....

In other words, if you can't predict a forward data because of manipulations (if one believes in that of course)

the only possibly attempt is to look at past data and use technicals (which is not human based inference) to a certain extent

to predict future price movements.

Silver and gold imo right now are on the watch list, I remember they use to move up, on any financial or macro news

some time even if not related. Danger of wars have subsided and news are talking about possible agreement in coming negotiations.

Will be interesting to see how POG/SILVER react to coming Fed. rate cut, possibly on the watch list till then....

Ddubya lol

please don't talk to me about coffee and bananas

that this morning breakfast costed me a fortune!