RE: The Trump effect7 Jan 2026 09:41
Hi Mike,
if you refer to my last post about the USD and biforcation, no, I mean actually a stronger USD hence the mening of "biforcation".
Maybe decoupling could also be another term, but in substance what I mean is that because of the "Trump effect" and the infuence
his personnal agenad/life has on his followers, its creating a biforcation or sporadic anomalies on financial instruments and data,
where some time USD rises together with other assets that should be going lower.....Possibly are just short lived sentiment-driven events, like recent sp rise of most Venezuelan oil connected US companies, but, in the case of USD imo, this is more representative of patriotism and therefore of the loyal followers of Trump saga, rather than a tangible economic event.
Then again....USD and its benchmark, is not anymore so representative of world assets values and therefore its fluctuation, could be due to many other reasons.
On Ths numbers yes, at PGM $2500/oz revenue is about the same of Chrome, I am assuming some 140k production and $130million profit.
Mind you only $400 more on PGM woud be net profit or extra $56millions, almost half of current projected profit. PE would come down to 2.6.
I have compared THS to Zimplat share graph and of recent, they seems to move in tandem. Possibly THS had already priced in its past "scheleton" and now is sinced with PGM prices, which by the way have been close to loss making for miners, for the last 2-3 yeras.
Again IMO what we are seen is at least inflation been priced into PGM prices, with maybe a little of dedollarization and safe haven apreciation from the jewelry market. What is going to take time, is apreciation from the chage of sentiments due to abandoning from governments or limiting combustion engines in 2030 or 2035 or whattever those clowns Europeans are talking about.