Member Info for LuckyLuciano

As posted, probably the true lies in between. Lots of issues, bottleneck in the supply chain for bullion dealers,

due to lack of refinery capacity and price fluctuation/lack of credit.

Including the fact that even newly refined silver, is now constrained by China export restrictions, still, recent

price spike was due to paper speculation not physical demand. In a way physical demand in Shanghai was the driver "together with all the news

media on the internet...Asian Guy and all that, but what caused the bubble was EFT and paper...

Hopefully after this healthy drop of recent, speculation has subsided a bit (not so sure though).

Let's hope it doesn't rise too high too fast. Price difference Asia/Europe is narrowing I think it closed at 99 in Shanghai.

Https://tvc-screenshots.investing.com/tvc_76aee69d67b66e97d7e1885279ff365d.png

My interpretation is that we may see more rises to come from silver. The hourly RSI as give a divergence signal hourly candle

(blue lines on the graph, where the sp makes new lows but the RSI fails to make new lows) this is a contrarian bullish signal.

Also the $71 silver was the fairly strong bottom of support chanel for silver, lower than that there is $54 , not impossible but very improbable.

The market don't want lower silver, and at this price sees an opportunity to buy cheaper, and by trying to read the conspiracy theory story,

I would guess that JPM and friend, wont short silver from this low price, they might have another go, but at much higher prices.......my theories.

Is also true though that, more silver price rises and more will find sellers, ...the investors that got scared and await to get the money back to leave the party.

They may not be a lot, but also there will be less people that see silver cheep if we go back to above 100.

Right now silver price is forming a triangle range where price as tomorrow will break either up or downwards.

IMO that will decide the next week price action, ideally forming a range in the 80/90 or even going to challenge new hights again.

Time will tell. For me the biggest issue was the US indexes as I posted before. Not in safe territory yet, but today rise is positive

possibly Google results tomorrow and payroll and employment data later in the week will be a make or break event.

As I said if US indexes start to drop everything but gold will drop.

Saying that today I tuck a small position in HMY, AG, ACZ, whish me good luck.

Ducatiman996r

congrats on the byke choice.

Selling commodities that don't exist should be made illegal, it is fraud....Agree with you, or at the least, selling or speculating on physical commodities

that they don't own, should warrant some for of shared profit or compensation to the original owner of that commodity.

The fact is that they do what they want, the financial mafia as the power by corrupting politician and the laws and the money which are infinite

as we live in a debt based economy. Crazy.

What about the crypto world then...lol. more than 10000 cryptos out there, most allowed to be traded....where is the assets, where is the value?

Is indeed a dangerous game that of investing.

So many idealistic young people, lose their hard earned cash out of following entiments and moral values, when actually

in investing and finance, there is no moral values.

Sector average P/E of 26 is almost as high as the Nasdaq.

Dark_Knight2020 I don't think it works like this.

Margins are intended as leverage, meaning that even if you put up your cash, it is leveraged and therefore the casino

to limit risks of you defaulting, for time to time asks for higher collaterals.

I know because I use to do spread betting, cray idea but for some people it works I suppose.

So one needs to deposit real cash in a account, (no credit) to be bale to multiply the value of this cash and bet bigger stakes.

But if the position goes in "red" the casino asks for more cash (margins)

Very useful balanced video thought...

Another point is, if the March delivery is such a big issue, and I am sure it is, one as to expect more to come from the financial mafia

before that deadline.....

Fogthemogg

no is not that, I just was not aware that in a physical market there are margins.

Is like I go to Tesco to buy potatoes and Tesco ask me for margins.....When I buy something physical I assumed the price get fixed at the moment I buy it

the contract, hence what the margins are for.....Boooo

Anyhow Bullionbypost, my physical silver supplier, has runned out of mid/large silver bars, they use to be the one that has the most in stock.

By the way difference between shanghai and Comex is not some $30 as the video claims but $18 as I type...just to put things into perspective!

So apparently Shanghai market also raised margins. I though been a physical market that margins where inexistent or irrelevant.

Hummmmmmm

If you believe this video....better double-check, FWIW

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dQ1CZS8jEY

JMAX

Well clearly you don't think so, with comment like "If PMs were to stay in this price range then FRES is making huge money.

I am not pretending to predict the future, I am just trying to get a s close as possible to forecast what will happen.

Please tell me, is it a bad thing, considering that I am risking my hard earned cash here?

Hummmm RSI on silver shows a divergence on the hourly candle.

Normally is a sign of price reversal although it is only on the hourly .....

For what its worth at least, is very likely silver price won't retrace all the way to 50ish levels.

I think silver will price range on 70/85 but is very unlikely to make new hight, lots of people got burned on friday

that was leveraged bets on higher prices and very risky, hopefully people learn lessons.

I am not here to point finger on how did this or that and take an emotional stance, what for?

Is it going to make more money for me? Is impossible to predict manipulations, either you play the game no complains or you are out.

For miners in my experience, it doesn't matter how much profit they are or will make, when the fat lady stop signing everything comes down,

some faster some slower, the only things that goes up is gold, but not the miners.

I am talking about when panic sets in and you get these 2-3% drops in the US indexes daily...

Thing is when there are these market corrections, many shares in many sectors will be very cheap long terms

and this is the time to buy mid/long term.

Well whatever silver does, Nasdaq futures opening -1% for me is enough to scare me away from re-entering the miners. Cucial week indeed. Good night

Maybe early days but in Shanghai silver opened flat or slightly below Friday closing....

Indeed I don't think China likes high silver prices at all, they just want to silver not the high prices.

Silver is not gold, regarding world currency and also, China doesn't want either a strong currency backed by gold

unless the rest of the BRICS play the same game.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W56BSma8sdY

Well if this is true, if likely it will affect market more than what XI JINPING says...trust me.

I take your point, let me rephrase....

31% drop can be a black swan as sentiments toward silver evaporate, people make losses and run out of cash to prop up the futures paper market,

or whatever other reason. It is too early to understand if for example Trump nomination was a BS, but if for example the USD keep rising and coincidentally the US indexes start to come fast down, like next week Google numbers disappoint....or even if they don't. Then. if we really what to talk about black swan one of these events will be definitely the culprit. I believe LemonTree1 when saying "a black swan in the making" intended these series of negative events in the market...not exactly a black swan event. And indeed imo a single black swan event, it could be argued that may be not enough to completely cause a major reversal trend if not happening together or best at the peak of other, destabilising financial circumstances.

If 31% drop on silver was not a black swan, at the least was definitely unpredictable, hope you agree.

Done some quick maths, in 2024 Capricorn sold each barrel of oil for $17 is it possible WTF.

Avocet123

will all due respect, you seem to deliberately or not missing the point.

Beside LemonTree1 stating "we have the makings of a global Black Swan" so no black swan yet.....

There are two more thing imo to take in consideration:

First a black swan event, is recognised always after it tuck place, hence, is impossible to answer your question.

Secondly a black swan event, is characterised by its intensity/effect on the market, and this is a gray area of interpretation.

In other words, we could have a 10/15% market correction and therefore be considered normal due correction.

For the same token, a one day 31% correction in silver price......hmmm is up to you how you wanna call it and

which was the black swan, if any. But for sure it never happened before and , maybe it needs a bit more careful interpretation.