Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Yep, next week is crucial.

Not just for silver but especially for the US indexes which are due a correction for months now, based on fundamentals.

Black swan events are almost impossible to predict, this is why they are recognised after it they happens.

Analogy is, "the drop that overflowed the bucket" where the size of the bucket is not fixed.

Could it be a entity like JPM or GS that's behind it all?

Exactly my conclusion. After watching dozens of these videos and following course of events, it is very possible that

JPM, GS and Co, have embraced AI as the next manipulation strategy to make money.

The Chinese are not interested in this kind of stuff, and also the kind of detailed knowledge and sophisticated manipulation

of the market, coming out from this avatar mouth can "possibly" only be of western origins. Be aware of this trend, we live in a total new world

regarding financial market and trend forming situation. I believe it all started with the cryptos, nowadays "sentiments" are the name of the game

they have always been , but now they are exponential....and skillfully used by the big boys...

LemonTree1

I tend to agree in part, with that statement "Silver will be a lot higher in 1 year time"

Is the ......a lot....bit that hmmmm, not so sure.

The fact is, almost everybody is now expecting a bounce back up on Monday. But the question is, how higher will go, how long will last.

These two factors will determine how higher will be silver in 1 year time or maybe 2-3 years time.

IMO unfortunately, there are so many variables which affect silver price and some are ever changing variable not fixed

making impossible to predict prices, not just for silver.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PyyOOqMKgk

After watching this video, this is my take:

Yes there is an unprecedented demand for silver from retailers and some are asking for physical silver, but,

beside supply and demand balance, there is also a massive bottleneck, in the processing chain with replacing inventories

and liquidity in general. In other words the scarcity of silver available for sale is also due to uncertainty about pricing

(too volatile) and therefore bullions are reluctant to buy physical silver because of the cost associated to reprocessing it and the uncertainty to be able to sell it al higher price. Beside that, there is very little refinery capacity in the west and they are right now overwhelmed by recent increased activity in the silver market. So in not entirely scarcity of silver supply, the reason for prices to go up, but also bottleneck in the supply chain.

Is due for months now and if it happens everything will correct but possibly, not the UDS.

And this is what is actually happening, as I type the Nasdaq is dropping like a stone, maybe is also because is Friday...

Gold coming heavily down for me is a confirmation that a big correction is occurring right now, panic is the name of the game.

Hold your hats looks like is snowballing....

By the way USD Index just made new short terms recent hight....been the Trump nomination or been due from a bounce.....

Me thinking more pressure on silver short terms....

People jumping to conclusion like been anty China...where that comes from?

I am just saying that silver had a blow off top and now IMO need to reset

maybe you watched too many youtube videos with silver prediction at $5000...please.

Price action speak for its, you can't have any commodity rising 10% a day, this correction is healthy

even silver at $200 would be fantastic for me, but I am talking for 2026 average.

At recent rate it would have reached $10000 by end of 2026 or soo....please!?

Yes I am in cash and rather trust the techs in stead of my intuition, especially right now with so many moving parts.

By the way recent silver rise is/was due mainly from retalis asking for deliveries that industry and also it goes the other way round..

ie, if I was Samsung and see silver prices dropping, supposing I have already secured next year supply, I would wait for lower prices.

You got to ask yourself how comes that all of the sudden, the industries have woken up and start to buy silver?

Naa is mainly retail, switching from gold becoming too expensing in to silver, even the gold jewelry had a massive drop because of high price

is only logical that they/me switch to silver. But sure there are other reasons...lots of speculation and a tight market for sure.

No pro west for on minute here but trying to see the middle ground...as always,when I manage to.

Trump is NOT the Fed chairman, and beside I read many financial sauces now forecasting no cuts for 2026.

Thing is, with inflation rising ( today PPI +0.50% for example) if they cut rates and devalue further the USD,

who is going to buy their debt, getting 4% returns and losing 10% of currency devaluation.

IMO the UDS will/is loosing value mainly out of foreign selling UD debt and dedollarization from the BRICS

but not because of Fed cuts.

US banks are already living on borrow times, now the AI started to borrow as well for hyperscale

JMAX

because BS change all the time. If one is not up to date with the BS, is just living in the past.

Especially during Trump era, IMO things are evolving and ever changing, very volatile and difficult to predict.

But to answer directly your question, you kind of answer it yourself.....

If silver was not flying when rates were zero, there is less reasons for it to fly now.....

This imo means that recent rise was/is very volatile and the drop could be brutal

and because I have no clue to predict further than my nose, right now I rather be in cash,

or wait for technicals to show me the way.

On my tech interpretation, silver just touch Fib 50% lows at 95$

is unusual for a price to retrace at 50% fib, especially a volatile one like silver.

Hence may be looking for 61% or even 78% which as major support, respectively $88 and $80/oz.

Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for Fed chair. This guy is viewed as more against rate cuts by the market

hence dollar is rising and silver in tanking.

...by the way silver at $100 as no meaningful suppor, is just psychological, hence if keep dropping

eventually will pass throughout easily.

I am all cash, not shorting anything I don't do spread betting or CFD or EFT.

But be warned, USD tentatively rising, US indexes futures already 1% down, Apple Inc. futures, which yesterday

at close reported best 4 years mobile phone sales, are flat, normally would be 10% up.

At 14.30 when US market opens will be crunch time, but given the prices of the futures and sentiments

my bets are on a complete melt down. Is strange that Gold which normally does well (not silver) is also dropping like a stone.

But this time feels like panic is taking over, and also Gold if briefly corrects. IMO DYOR

By the way, US indexes deeply in red on futures, any bad numbers coming out from techs like yesterday Microsoft would deepen the drop.

And even if is a rubbish trade, of recent what reacted "positively" to lower US indexes has been the USD, hence metals looking very precarious.

This was to be expected, miners and metals do well, when the UD indexes do relatively well too, or at least don't drop drammatically.

The again, you may find that Trump bomber Iran over the week end and it all change....crazy times.

Test time, imo if doesn't hold is better to run away.

Caravan

We live in uncharted waters for what concern, geopolitics, the USD and economies.

Consequently is not easy to give an explanation to current prices actions, so many factors and sentiments are pulling in many different direction.

Technical charts which are supposed to be the benchmarc of predictions, are also making new "temporarily rules" and contradicting themselves.

All one can expect for sure is huge volatility in prices, I wouldn't be surprise to see silver, making new hight in a day or soo....saying that

when things are not so steady as before, is a sign that moment is turning around, sentiments are changing.

Personally I see 2 main factors for metals and miners turning, one is stretched prices especially for silver which is constrained to

fungibility in its inherent industries, silver may remain above say....80 long time, but short time may reverse even lower, hence huge volatility.

The second reason is the US indexes are prone for a correction and when that happens almost everything drops.

Miners share prices have started to top already a week ago, even if metal prices reached new high, the moment has gone and it will take time and a decent correction to return.

Momentum has changed, sentiments are changing..

It does look a blow-off top for silver and money are moving in other sectors...if any.

Yesterday Microsoft drop could be a sign of market correction and if happens

even gold/silver miners will suffer.

In this environment, would you be prepared to hold Fres which has one of the highest PE

for projected 2026. I am all cash, have try to trade miners last week but prices of metals are so unpredictable and high volatile.

Beside even if gold/silver keep rising, miners have stopped to make new high for the last week or so.

Best sit on the sideline, many PM miners have already raised 5-6 even 10 fold in recent months .....Christmas has gone.

Have to say after this comment from Trump, almost looks like devaluing the USD is the last resort, for the US.

Given the price action of the US-Index of late I wonder is they are willingly pushing it down

this would shrink their debt, rise the US foreign reserves and the bullion which they apparently have at Fort Knox,

and attract capital investments in US.....

===================

Investing.com -- President Donald Trump stated Tuesday that he doesn’t believe the U.S. dollar has declined too much, describing the currency as "doing great."

Trump noted that the dollar is "seeking its own level, which is fair," and expressed that he isn’t concerned about the currency’s recent decline.

During his remarks, Trump claimed that countries like China and Japan "always wanted to devalue currency." He added that the dollar’s value can fluctuate "up or down like a yo yo."

The comments come amid recent movements in the value of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies.

Possibly hour bullish flag, it closed above descending resistance, it tried all day to do that.

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