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Anon3
If you like to have a meaningful conversation, please quote the whole of my sentence, not extract what suite you best to make a point.
I wrote:
Forget about debit repayment and focus on operation, Kour ramp-up, and exploration result....and of course POG.
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And because it seem you need explanation, what i mean is that if the company ramp-up Kour and operation at Yan are carrying on as now, debit will be repaid because will/is making huge profits.
Also please stop spreading false information, AGAIN to suite your interest (buy cheap Hum shares)
Hum started production at Yan in 2018 already with a debt, some $50millions.....
The first year in 2018 with production not a full speed and POG at low $1200/oz, of course they made a small loss.
The second year 2019, production was higher and they made a profit...
Then a coup in Mali and covid-19 happened. You can blame the BoD as much as you like..
In my opinion looking at start of mine 2018 and 2019 they performed ok, and they proved that again recently when implementing measure to better Yan production.
Can't understand people ben invested in Hum and be so negative, please do me a favour, sell you shares (if you hold any, that is..)
Billy my last post on the subject regarding debit or debt repayments.
You say:
This $20m is not included within existing gross/net debt figures as it is as yet unpaid.
Are you actually reading what you write?
Are you saying that debt is normally not included in the gross/net debit number, because it is unpaid????
Is it not the very nature and definition of the word debt, not been paid, or is it something to do with the spelling???
So what? Is it going to be included once it is repaired??? Like first you pay your debit and then you can make an entry on the balance sheet as debt..I can see where the confusion comes from....
Anyway at the end of the day all I know is that Hum as some $125million in total debit.
That at conservative $550/OZ EBITDA for 220K/OZ will make some $125million in 2024.
Debit will be repaid and more if POG goes even higher.
You need to read the H1 financial reports:
https://wp-hummingbirdresources-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/07/Q2-2023-Operational-Trading-Update-final-1.pdf
Also read this:
The Company expects H2-2023 AISC to be higher than H1-2023
levels at Yanfolila as more open pits are mined, however, FY2023 is to remain within the AISC guidance of under US$1,500
per ounce.
....correction.
When I say Hum sp will reach new high, I don't mean all time high lol
£203.35 per share would be nice though but....
There is a strong resistance at 40p and this is my target for 2024.
Billy sorry
I probably didn't and still don't get what about your concerns are...
Sorry don't want to sound an English language professor here, but the phrase below, is lacking punctuations or is grammatically incorrect, hence not sure what you mean...
=================
My concern is that we may have deferred Kou build costs to pay as we enter 2024 which may need to be paid before we see any potential for accelerated debt reduction.===========================
Again my apologies the way i sound. Are you saying that your concern is about Hum starting to repay debit a latter date than previously anticipated?
I am confused, you talk about Kour build debit as if is a different kind of debit, not sure....Then there is also this
=======
o c.US$20 million contractor deferrals, retention incentives and working capital not expected to be paid until Kouroussa is in full production
========
So they are talking also about "working capital" but I don't see the connection with what you said before, about having deferred Kou build costs to pay as we enter 2024.....
Where did you get this from?
Look Billy,
the sun is coming out, I am going for a bicycle ride to Greenwich, before it start cold and rain again, it has been a s@itty July and need to take advantage of any sun ray as much as possible.
I leave you with your concerns, imo you are reading too much in to details probably because you hold so many shares, maybe too many. (been there done that..)
What can I say keep your nerves and if fundamentals haven't changed, hold on to your shares.
IMO sooner or later HUM sp will reach new high and much more.
I probably should do the same, in stead of reading this board every day, but more than concerned on my investment, I am very bored these days, not working the whole August and awaiting my holiday in September.
If I can advise. Forget about debit repayment and focus on operation, Kour ramp-up, and exploration result....and of course POG.
Ciao
I might be wrong but to those seeking a cheaper Hum entry sp.....
Watch out, sellers have dried out. All yesterday trades but one where buys.....
Technical say RSI Divergences signal, buyyyyyy
Essay from drilling could be landing any day, last time they drilled Gonka South ("GS"), results grades were unbelievable...check it.
The GS Resource upgrade drilling is complete and awaiting assay results ahead of further analysis.
My concern is that we may have deferred Kou build costs to pay as we enter 2024 which may need to be paid before we see any potential for accelerated debt reduction.===========================
Where you get that concern from? And please! Don't go on about "at the AGM", sorry I wasn't there and have to refer to what the company says with its communique, not what you heard at the AGM.
They talk about aggressive debit reduction, deleveraging as from this year (maybe), crating share holders value, strengthening the balance sheet, etc...
A debit repayment is a debit repayment, been from Kour or Yan capex, is still money paid back.
If they refinance even better, lower rate for longer and then repaying debt, will cost even less to the company.
Billy I am starting to think that yours are "polite" attempt to discredit the company, to buy on the cheap Hummingbir's shares.......Come on be honest?!
Averaging down?
Hi Billy
sure when I typed "little more than 1 year" for DEBT repayment I knew I was a bit optimistic.
TBH debt repayment timing is a bit anyone guess.
And what about if POG goes to $2200/OZ in 2024, or back to £1600/OZ....
With Hum I am buying the doubling of production story, improved operation (low AISC) and hopefully with inflation coming down, a weaker USD and stronger POG for 2024/25.
I am not even mentioning Fed. rate reduction, but is safe to say that POG is looking good for the next few years.
......Also to note that it as been 3 quarters that Yan is at full production and lower AISC. How much more reassurance people want that operation there have changed?
They got rid of the previous mine contractor, and changed the head of mine operations, this is why they are now producing a decent rate.
In all these years, they have also gained experience (hopefully) in managing wet seasons, drilling new pit and stock piling, commissioning and ramp-up production.
Time will tell, but I am expecting surprising positive news coming out.....
Indeed fair comments, even if a bit on the negative side.
For the new investor here is good to read balanced view, but some posters on here talk about the company debit as if the Management as squandered the money in fancy expensive holidays....
Hummingbird debit comes from having funded 2 mines, Yan and Kour, which any minute now will be producing more than 50K/OZ of gold per Quarter.
So this debit, (which can be repaid in little more than 1 year) as been an investment to produce shareholders value.
Is important to specify this, and NOT talk about company debit, as if they spend all the money to pay wages and costs...
If Hummingbird was quoted in the AUX Exchange, it would be double the price if not more from tomorrow, but this is UK investor market. AIM and Uk market in general, is full of short term investor (well lets say gamblers) that would happily jump in on a fairy-tale story of a miner that still has to build a mine, but wouldn't invest in a company that has already build the mine and is about to create investor value.
In short they would invest in a company that is about to borrow heavily, but would stay away from a company that is about to repay the debit, just because the crowd is willy-nilly happy to buy the story, the dream. How many people have bought at the top of a dream and now are stuck at high sp for year.
Also to have a balanced view, remember that Hum till recently has been a 1 trick-pony story.
One single mine started from scratch in Mali, during a coup and Covd-19. I mean when they started Yan, best ASIC around was just below $1000/OZ and POG was averaging $1200/OZ, what profit investors where expecting ??????????????
No I am sorry, people here are too negative, IMO this is a fantastic investment, but if you are not willing to take a bit of a risk for a handsome return, then you should put your money in a bank account.
POG moving up, without much help from USD Index.....nice
Just thinking if Friday US payroll disappoint, we well regain $2000/oz ?!
Thank you mrtibbles
Yes I was vaguely aware of the two markets and some differences, but I never saw such a sudden price difference.
Indeed have compared the 2 graph spot and future and often in the past prices had moved much closely...
Recently (some on here my be already aware) came across Hochschild H1 results, showing that they have hedged some 2024/25 production well above $2000/oz
Clearly the POG trend is up...nice.
Also right now has I type both spot and future are moving up in tandem.
Bearing in mind that short terms, it doesn't really matter what the sp is doing.
But for the sake of it......some are waiting the below 12p support, as it is the most recent low.
But imo that is 50/50 chance that I wouldn't like to take considering the very little gains from current price.
The tech in it self is not a clear cut done deal, for price to go below 12p.
For start recent low at 11.58p is not a strong support, that means it is not a support level that has occurred many time in the past, actually never. It is just a recent low.
That means that sp could easily even lower, or never get there. Then, as someone mentioned days ago, the hourly graph is forming a suspicious RSI Divergences signal, when sp is keeping moving down and RSI is starting to trend higher (going opposite direction of price).
This is a very reliable bullish signal, in my experience much more than any other tech...
It can be said that in a share like Hum, with such low volumes and little interest, this RSI Divergences signal may not be a clear cut done deal, or it may take much longer to reverse trend...
It can be said though that sells are drying up, and therefore just few buys would spike the price back up very fast.
On the catalyst side although there may be no news for the next moth or two from Kouroussa ramp up, there are essay results pending from recent exploration at SW and Gonka South ("GS"). The SW drilling will test for further mineralisation along the north-east and south-west strike zones to extend the SW Resources. The GS Resource upgrade drilling is complete and awaiting assay results ahead of further analysis.
In particular Gonka is the deposit with the highest grade at Yan, and imo essay will show that again.
So to conclude is not certain that sp will go below 12p but it could easily happen, especially is POG doesn't behave.
Https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-treads-water-copper-prices-flat-ahead-of-china-pmis-3138505
Right this explain it a bit.....
Right I missed that bit. Thanks
Https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-treads-water-copper-prices-flat-ahead-of-china-pmis-3138505
Apparently data is correct....but I don't understand this difference between spot and future...?
Mind you my data provider https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold
sometime give out completely wrong info.
Are you watching at gold price right now?
Is it my date provider wrong ? Showing nearing $2000/oz a massive price jump over the weekend.
Is it to do with Japan monetary policy?
Are you watching at gold price right now?
Is it my date provider wrong ? Showing nearing $2000/oz a massive price jump over the weekend.
Is it to do with Japan monetary policy?
Billyboy2fromiii is great to be able to exchange point of views, without digressing in childish empty comments, if not worst.
We are all here with the same interest that is to make a profit, anyone has different time frames, but one thing we all should have in commune, is trying to understand where this company is going.
If we all do some research put that all together and we have a board, that can provide much information for current and future investors...
Billyboy2fromiii, first yes agree with you on Q3 $30 million FCF .....IMPOSSIBLE (sorry BT)
And also agree on some points..but imo you are way too pessimistic.
Already Q2/23 at Yan was challenging with feed coming from some lower grade stockpile, and yet 23K/OZ at relatively low AISC...for Q2/23 is not bad.
Maybe people on here are use to very high AISC from trebled production periods back in 2020/21, but AISC costs back then where higher also because of many remedies they tried to implements. Right now operation are normal, is just grade that will change.
IMO for H2/23 Yan will do and average of 20K/OZ each at AISC below the $1500 guidance (the company said they are very confident to achieve this) That bring Yan at min. 90K/OZ and below $1500 AISC for 2023.
Kour as I said, 30K/OZ is way too conservative. If it is supposed to produce 120K/OZ per year, at ramped up production only Q4 is already producing 30K/OZ, this is why I am adding some 10K/OZ for period June gold poured to end of September....Is likely will be more.
This makes a conservative 40K/OZ for 2023 at Kour.
On AISC it is anyone guess, sure if they incur all strip ratio cost in this period it will lose money....not sure what is the ratio, but doesn't matter it will surely lose money.
Anyway I don't think anybody is expecting the company to repay debit in 2023, but with some $45/50 millions EBITA coming from Yan in 2023, I can't see HUM needing to issue more shares.
Also I am reading this from the lates H1 Results:
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· Capital expenditure ("capex") of approximately c.US$16 million in the quarter (c.US$12 million for the project completion at Kouroussa and c.US$4 million for expansion capex in Mali). Expectations for H2-2023 Group capex to be materially lower versus H1-2023 levels with the Kouroussa plant build complete.
· Net debt position of c.US$122.8 million at the end of Q2-2023 (c.US$119.3 million including gold inventory value) with deleveraging expected to commence in H2-2023. For the quarter end:
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So bro...less CAPEX in H2/23 and deleveraging (paying down debit) in H2/23
Did you read it as well?