Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Hi SpaceHoppa,

apologies if my info might be incorrect or misinterpreted, I got them from Rockhopper latest announcement.

Please note that the costs I refer to are contingent to a specific quantity of reserves, that means that there may be much more reserves,

but it will need much more investment to be extracted them.....

Anyhow I am not an expert, please find below an extract from the latest news I referred from.

=====================================================

The net proceeds of the Placing and Open Offer are expected to fund Rockhopper's proportion of the capex required for the Phase 1 development plan for the Sea Lion oil field in the North Falklands Basin ("Sea Lion"). The Phase 1 scope is over the northern development area of Sea Lion and is designed to recover 170 mmbbls of gross 2C resource through the drilling of seven oil producer wells, one gas injector and three water injector wells ("Phase 1 of the Sea Lion Development or "Phase 1"). Navitas Development and Production Ltd ("Navitas"), an indirect subsidiary of Navitas Petroleum LP, the operator of Sea Lion, estimates the total post-FID funding requirement as US$1.658 billion to the point of first oil production ("First Oil") and US$2.058 billion to project completion on Phase 1 of the Sea Lion Development. US$1 billion of the cost to project completion is expected to be funded through a senior secured debt financing package. The base equity requirement under the project financing to project completion, once all fees, interest charges, contingencies and post-First Oil revenues have been taken account of, is US$790 million. Under the previously disclosed loan agreements between Navitas and Rockhopper, the Rockhopper share of this is US$92 million. In addition, Rockhopper will need to provide for an additional US$10 million of cost overrun equity support, bringing the total Rockhopper project equity requirement to US$102 million. The remaining proceeds will go towards the contingent early project failure decommissioning funding requirement, which Rockhopper currently estimates its net cost to be approximately US$25 million, and other ongoing working capital requirements.

....remember?

For the sake of valuation. They are planning to rise some $140 million for SL, for their share of the project.

Total 170 mmbbls of gross recoverable 2C resource, for a capex of US$2.058 billion to project completion on Phase 1 of the Sea Lion Development.

I suppose more costs for phase 2.

Harbour reported proven and probable (2P) reserves of 1.25 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and 2C contingent resources of 1.91 billion boe as 2024.

Now 1,25 bboe or 2p, which can be considered commercialised resources of HBR, are more than 7 times the 170 mmbbls c2 of Sea Lion.

Just saying wow.......is not cheap to develop frontier oil fields these days. And yet there are companies and financiers ready to spend some $2 billions for a project of many years to firs oil and for just 170 mmboe.

Https://tvc-screenshots.investing.com/tvc_85431a10ab553d450a8182aa353627da.png

Looks like there are 2 supporting levels, would be nice if 67ish holds...

In HBR defence, have to say nobody could have predicted covid, energy price spikes and then the UK gov. taxing as is there is no tomorrow.

As company itself, regarding operations and assets, to me is a solid company even more now with the acquisition.

Time will tell but current sp level has been holding for a decade now.....we touch a lower at 150ish where the RSI as made a buy signal.

I have recently posted that there is a gap at 160 and if the POO collapse it will get filled for sure, but even more recently with WTI at 64

sp has been forming a support at 190, far away from the 160 gap .

Going forward, if/when the Fed will ease, lets say by 2026, HBR sp should be much higher than this. DYOR

Still hoping for my 142 or lower...

Hi sasa43

thanks for the feedback, what you are posting is reassuring given your extensive experience in the city.

I suppose this could be called an abstract post, but still very relevant on facts and rationale of the market and investing today.

Buying shares could be classified in 2 categories, mid/long term investing and trading.

Investing implies holding shares, averaging down or up, regular small purchase for the long terms and dividends collection.

The facts of the matter with investing are fundamentals, the market or a specific commodity and the way the company is run by the BoD.

Trading on the other hand is to do with technicals, graphs, price action, tools analyse etc...

In my experiences though, I have notices (often at my expenses) that there is another category, another way of buying shares.

This third category is the most damaging and expensive. It is the one that sits in between the first and the second, the one that switch between investing and trading.......

For me the most difficult thing to do when investing/trading is to stick to my original plans, when often news flows, personal circumstances and some time just out right the way I worked up in the morning, make me change my mind or create doubts or the opposite, excitements, driven by news of the last moments.

Indeed the only time I made a fantastic return on investments, albeit taking high calculated risks and possibly been very lucky to bet at the right time of a particular market, has been during covid, when I follower a system and invested on Pharmaceuticals....(no brainer there I suppose).

What I am trying to say is that, doesn't matter what, often if one sticks to a plan a system, in due time is likely that will make decent returns.

Beside philosophy, I was following an interesting debate on what kind of energy will fuel the data center of future AI development.

All the up an coming kind of energy supply, from nuclear to renewable and more have massive restrains for the immediate future.

For example nuclear with its up and coming Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), apparently is at least 5 years away from development,

and imo even then, initial estimated costs will have ballooned, without talking about the practicality, legislation and public opinion consultation.

Inthe end it turns out to be again gas, the cheaper, easier, relatively environmental friendly and more readily available for of energy to produce the electricity needed to fuel the AI revolution....I am not sure about coal, but fortunately seems nobody is talking about it.

So stick to your plans, a sp wont go up just because you wish/it should/ go up. The only thing that we can't predict is timing.

I was hoping for a drop to 140, to top up.

There is still a gap 142/144 but after today failed attempt downwards (hope I haven't spoken too soon)

doubt it will be filled, unless the general markets starts to turn sour....

Have to say Arizona metal AMC and TKO are both down quite a bit, and they have copper interest in US.

That shows how illogical is the price of metal quoted by those exchanges, shouldn't copper produced in US cost 50% more

with tarifs at 50% on imports?

Haaaaa, I give up.

...i just wonder if the clown, is not starting another orkestrated market correction.

Last time the market was topping he come out with liberation day, now already since a couple of days is

back on the media circus with claims on China tarif because they help the Russians and most recently also had a go at India.

50% tariff is unexpected, sudden and of a bigger magnitude, and in the process is helping the price of oil to go up

just to make sure that the European will pay hansome money for the energy imports from US.

Call it conspiracy theories but I feel there is quite a bit of truth in it.

Not really, in theory a 50% tariff on imported copper would favour domestic copper projects.

NWC has a project in Arizona.

Thing is USA can not do without importing copper and they are not deciding the price, they can only increase it with tariffs and create higher inflation.

A 20% drop of today in copper price is symbolic and soo it will correct imo. real physical trades will still go true at contract price of yesterday...

Indeed, couldn't believe my eye...

Have to say, what a jock the economies and finance including investing has become,

since the clown come to power.

He must be trading and making millions, out of these claims on tarifs....the fact is that nobody will ever know

if these tariffs will ever be implemented,when, and how much these tarifs claims will actually bring, to the US economy

in revenue/tax and in benefits to the so much claimed, America First rhetoric.

Have to set the 8am alarm tomorrow...maybe 8.15.

Investing often is more complex that it seems.

It is not just learning what to click and that is a share price, all those technical information are the tip of an iceberg

and financial institution make it easy, to lure young naive people to depart from their cash, for a moment of excitement.

Nothing wrong with that, so long as one knows what is going to get out of it.

The trouble starts when expectation are different from reality; there is a reason why only 5/10% of investors make money, especially with CFD/Spread betting, which by nature are higher risk investments.

Unless one is super lucky, nothing beat experience because with experience comes been wise. Remember Warren Buffet first rule for investing:

The first rule is " don't lose money" .

The again if one is prepare to lose money, like at a Casino, its all good.

But beside learning how to click and make a trade, it make sense to learn basic accounting and financial concepts, market terminology, technical analyses and most important how to read sentiments (that is market sentiments, not if your girlfriend is sad or happy).

Anyhow, between Thor Exploration and M1 there are great differences. Thor is a cash producing gold miner that recently started to pay dividends, is going make lost of profit and I believe doesn't have any debt, intrinsic sp should be stable (has it has been rising for a while now and reached fundamental value) drivers for Thor sp are price of gold and main market sentiments. Thor at today gold prices, has enough gold reserves that are equal to its value but in 4 years they will run out of reserves and need quickly to discover more gold or start another project to keep trading....Hence in my view, unless gold price keep rising, Thor sp as topped (more of less) only by adding more reserves where they are mining in Nigeria, or increasing gold price will more the sp higher. M1 on the other hand is like a boat, with no direction in the middle of a rough sea. So many negatives, and just pumped up by the media circus I suspect and chat rooms like this. There is a reason why this chat room is the busiest of the whole LSE website.

Many people with many motivations, many personal stories that find themselves in this space.

As I said before, if I could take the loss, I would rather sell and go to the gym, or for a nice walk in the park

than been here steering my emotion because someone said this or someone else said that.

You are not going to change the destiny of this company and its share price, by posting on this website.

Lot of love. L

I can't believe that a share like this attracted some 300 posts in one day, clearly lots of interest but by looking at the current sp

clearly lots of people are under on this investment.

In my years of investment experience, I have seen this kind of company coming and going, and people losing lots of money,

the most, those that would keep throwing money at something that will never bring any retur what so ever.

If you are invested for a gamble, fine, why not, I have also rolled the dices in the past with mixed results, but a word of advise

don't chase the luck and cut the loss . For start ask yourself if is worth to spend time and sour emotions after this investment,

is it not better admit to have mad a mistake, learn the lesson and move on?

Let me tell you something about exploration companies, there are 2 kind of ex companies.

The one that make private share placement often at higher share price and those placement are usually oversubscribed,

and then there are those ex. companies that keep issuing shares a lower sp, because the market otherwise wouldn't finance

the madness projects of the Directors at the helm of those companies.

For a tiny company by market cap. like M1 to have a diversified portfolio is suicidal.

Do you have any idea how long and how much money are needed to bring just on mine from exploration to production?

If you are buying M1 with this dream in mind, you are making a massive commitment, you better be in your 20s, committed to average down

as much as you can and hope that in 6/8 yeas time all when well for a mine to start construction.

By then is not a sure thing if you will be in profit or losing money out of you 8 years commitment, because it will all depend by so many factors

that nobody can predict right now.

This of course if the company you invested as managed to survive....normally those that issue shares al lower sp, don't.

So if you invested little on this dog, my advise id take the loss, and learn the lesson. Better than spending hours of your life on this board

with your emotion all ove rthe place, toxic come to mind.

Eve if tomorrow after you sold, you will see that the share as recovered, is just money, you learn your lesson because this was a gamble, not an investment.

If you have invested too much money to lose, is though, I feel for you, best advise is not to throw any more money at this.....

Put it in the bottom drawer and see how it goes......good luck all.

I wonder if sp need lower to fill the gat at 142.

Pure technical, because after recent positive news, can't see any other reason for lower price

Not sure if this info is true mate, wouldn't the company make an announcement?

In any case, me thinking no rush to sell shares in NWC at all.....

As posted before, profits this year will be higher than 2024 for 2 reasons,

price of copper 20% higher (and is where the majority of CAML profit comes from) and

capital costs some £8 million lower than 2024, with the surprise bonus that production at Sasa,

might still improve....

Hence, no need to sell any shares in NWC because imo dividends are guarantee

Topped up today on early drop at 153.4, doesn't do much for my average but still i think the sp can only go up from here.

Indeed plenty of time to reset and look for a copper project to replace Konrand mine.

One positive is that it seems CALM team have access to finance for new project.

This is not little matter as so many explorer out there are stuck with many project but no cash to develop.

CALM is net cash generating and has another mine in SASA, which at least will keep paying interest for any financing,

albeit to detriment of dividends.

In other words no panic......copper price on the up, cash generating, one of the highest dividend out there

finance guaranteed for new project, and doggy acquisition out of the way,

I think CAML saved some $50 million just by getting out of NWC, of course all will be revealed with next project.

On the negative side, and is just my opinion, I don't understand why spending committed $5.8 millions (3.8 already spent) on Aberdeen Minerals for 28% of what? FFS, with 5-6 million they could by 100% of many junior exploders out there,

with possibly much better copper grade resources or better advanced exploration results.

The only reason I can think of why they invested in Aberdeen R. is because maybe one day the can get access of

UK. Gov. financing via grants.....still is a if and when situation....

Anyhow fortunately Aberdeen is not what the company is focusing on.

It seems the market like it, and me too. Dividends are guaranteed and possibly a higher profit surprise.

I had a look at "junior mining website" which groups worldwide miners under many parameters.....man, there are so many junior miners in the copper space that have jorc reserve/resources ready, maybe another year of exploration, then permitting...in 2 years time you can get the equivalent of NWC for half the price if not less.

Also I would like to know more about the other exploration permitting CAML has in Kazakhstan, are they far from the current mine?

Nice to see a positive day on Friday,

although there were 2 large trades showing at selling price, accounting for half of total day volumes.

It seems that sentiments have changed from selling on revised lower production, to selling on NWC acquisition.

Reason for this is, that I can't believe that 2 large sell tardes, happened so late after the latest production reports and at current price,

considering that imo profits will be higher in 2025, despite "potential minimal zinc/lead lower production .

I note that capital expenditure outlook for 2025 is expected to be 18/21 million compared to 27.8 incurred in 2023 and similar in 2024.

Also on prices, zinc is recovering well, now exceeding 2024 average and lead is unchanged, copper is 20% higher than 20204.

Finally dividends should be unchanged, financed by higher profit, higher metal prices and lower capital costs,

this against a minimal zinc/lead production likely in the lower end of original numbers.

So, we are now in a acquisition driven sentiments on sp, imo and i suppose is anyone guess where the price will go

once CAML buys or not NWC.

Without going down to establish if NWC is an expensive acquisition or not, imo if we buy it is going to be positive for sp.

I wonder if Kinterra is playing the offer game just to get more cash, once CAML will buy it, or if they are serious about their offer.

In any case CAML need visibility, is not urgent but it need to buy something in the next 12/18 months, another possibility is that

copper price come down and we may buy another, cheaper miner to be in the next 12 mother, and frankly jurisdiction doesn't matter really,

so long as is not in a war infested African country.

Anyhow still many years to go before Kounrad runs out of copper,

all in all considering a better profit this year and maybe no acquisition of NWC the sp will recover nicely.

With the acquisition on we may have a short term drop, for then recovering on the assumption of massive cashflow

coming development down the line. DYOW all imo

Big volumes Friday

2 trades for 1.8million shares each at 53.20.

Looks like they where placed at 8.45 this morning hence the 5% plus opining price.

The only way is up here...I suppose buy the dips.