Member Info for cautionyourblast

Thanks, k. I was thinking about Calabar, but perhaps not relevant there either: I've no idea.

This has rather turned into a special-sits share on the arbitral stuff. Debt-laden Accugas is apparently worthless; Niger is a total joke; and the renewables look like death-by-misadventure to me.

The fact that there's a whole string here on who the auditor is sums it up rather well.

SAVE: an expensive mistake on my part.

Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nigerias-grid-capacity-shrinks-with-gas-supply-43-2026-02-27/

Thanks, noix

I feel I've seen decent volume before (either direction) that hadn't really moved price. Perhaps it's also linked to MM stock.

Trying to do technical analysis on penny shares seems utterly ridiculous to me.

Hi all

What has prompted the market-makers to move this from 7 pence to 9.5 pence in the last few sessions? I genuinely have no idea.

I do not know what PL2! means.

I was about to post similarly, pj.

The moves in SLP have been welcome, but they do not reflect the uplift in the PGM basket price. If Pt and Rh hold at these levels to the summer, then expect SLP nearer 200 pence than 114 pence.

I've done a spreadsheet sanity check on my investment here. Using 6E prices from platinum.matthey.com and the quarterly reports from the company, I get to a PE for 2025/26 (excluding cash) based on current price and a continuation of the Q4 2024/25 production volumes for Q2, Q3 and Q4 2025/26 of just 4.2. The Q4 production was quite a bit lower than Q1, so I'm trying to be conservative. My maths assumes that Q2 6E basket prices hold up. I'm excluding any sales adjustments (these were favourable in both Q4 and Q1. I'm ignoring the new chrome business.

Basically, it still looks cheap to me. But, of course, it's SA and commodities are fickle creatures.

You don't have to be a genius to see where this is going.

If the basket price held at these sorts of levels for the rest of the year to 30 June, I'd have net profit at about $80m. With a cash balance of, say, $70m at year-end the share currently trades on a forward PE ex cash of less than 4. This is ridiculously simplistic, of course.

Platinum is "doing a silver."

That's my take too.

Cheers, k. Appreciated.

The 7p raise was primarily used to buy out AK's debt in the Lothian entity.

I do not understand the last two RNSs. AK's holding seems to go up to 15% then down to 12.7%, but the number of shares tell a different story. Is it the dilution that's confusing me?

Many thanks, komakino. Interesting insight.

Thanks, komakino.

I guess we disagree here ....which is OK!

In my fairly limited experience of takeovers of AIM-listed entities, everything get lined up in the background before a recommended offer appears and those out the outside are left with no options.

Personally, I think that the corporate action stuff here screams of a corporate raid on-the-cheap coming up.

You're probably more experienced and knowledgeable in this stuff than me. And I very much hope I'm completely incorrect.

Does no one else see the take-private risk here as being significant?

AK, NIPCO, Vitol and maybe another chipping away at the Instits positions. 50% for control; 75% to delist.

Surely it's being considered. Pick it up on the cheap in advance of arbitral awards being made (forced).

I expect this won't be listed in 12 months time and we'll get forced out for a piffling premium.

WE ARE ALL GOING TO GET TAKEN OUT AT ABOUT 10 PENCE.

AK appears to be building a position for a take-private on the cheap.

My suspicion is that the auditor has/said something like: absent a hefty payment from the Nigerians, we disclaim opinion and will publish that we believe the numbers should've been presented on a break-up basis.