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I agree, bangrak.
It may be a while away, but when Ivanhoe brings phase 2 of this project on line, that could be a significant driver of global PGM supply.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jbb-O6KOFbQ&feature=youtu.be
I expect a profit marginally higher than Q1 or Q2, but only marginally (on account of Rh having nudged up a little).
Profit for the year is heading for around USD8m, bar any exceptionals.
This is a pretty easy share for which to estimate value.
Https://twitter.com/Savannah_Energy/status/1782311038769156384
Quite the response (albeit somewhat garbled).
This is what happens when Investor Relations stop doing investor relations...
I'm out of patience on the lack of info on Nigeria and Niger as well as lack of meaningful financial updates (but not on SS or CC). Inadequate.
You understood perfectly, SoG. Was similar to Rocky's point on stranded gas. I probably wasn't v clear.
The reason I don't favour dividends, is that we must be paying about 15% interest right now: a distribution is unjustifiable in such circumstances.
Given the significant burden of servicing of debt finance, I'd sooner see debt paid down or money put to work in high-IRR, low-payback-period projects and capex than any distribution.
On the Chad stuff, it can't be appealed forever. Others understand arbitral timelines far better than me. Injunctive seizure of cargo, either at Kribi or at destination port is how we get paid (should the arbitration be successful), I believe.
It'll be interesting to see if the growth in deferred revenue leads to customers seeking relief.
Thanks Trust.
Whilst I'm here, thanks also for all your thoughtful posts here over many months. You're a big part of keeping this board alive and keeping us all thinking: it's appreciated.
Cash plus 4-5 times projected FY24 net profit gives a share price in the low-to-mid 40s. Add 5 pence for sound management and potential growth in ounces produced. Deduct 5 pence for country in a big political and financial mess. I still end up with FV around 43-45 pence.
...have rather a long way to catch up with the share price.
Ok, this is what I imply:
One imagines Russia does not follow similar codes of conduct to Savannah when undertaking its international transactions.
And with that, I'm going to bed.
Https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1776239858173763666
They'll have to put something out today as they flagged it last week.
It's becoming increasingly clear that the Mexican stand-off between management and the South Sudanese decision-makers continues.
One more:
https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1774026440956072009?s=20
Https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1773794529268695184
Whilst I'm posting, I'll comment that I do not believe that shareholders will be the intended audience for next week's RNS. But we are probably close to the edge of some sort of denouement.
Happy Easter, everyone.
RNS Number : 7808I
Savannah Energy Plc
28 March 2024
28 March 2024
Savannah Energy PLC
("Savannah" or "the Company")
South Sudan Acquisition Update
Further to the Company's announcement on 1 February 2024, the Company confirms that it remains suspended from trading on AIM, with a revised cancellation date of 17 May 2024, whilst it continues to advance the various workstreams, including receipt of in-country approvals, required to complete the acquisition of PETRONAS International Corporation Limited's energy business in South Sudan.
The Company will provide a more detailed update regarding the ongoing process to complete the transaction during the course of next week.
For further information, please refer to the Company's website www.savannah-energy.com or contact:
Savannah Energy +44 (0) 20 3817 9844
Andrew Knott, CEO
Nick Beattie, CFO
Sally Marshak, Head of IR & Communications
Dear AIM regulator and Savannah Nominated Advisor,
We don't know the detail and nuances here. If there's leeway, please allow a further extension until Savannah can get this deal across the line.
The UK stock exchange could do with some success stories in its portfolio.
Thanks.
"What price for size, shag?" ๐ง
Mwahahaaa! Thanks, kat!
Initial thoughts on this:
1. Our operating (commercial) interest in SC after this goes through appears to be 100%, with the legal ownership at 62.5% (or just over). There seems to be an unusual arrangement with UER here: see the 2022 glossy. Please correct me if I've misunderstood.
2. This deal is to be funded by a Standard Bank facility and cash reserves of the company. Good. Suggests group liquidity remains healthy.
3. I've mentioned before that the existing Nigeria TOP contracts have thus far involved a lot more paying than taking. This acquisition suggests that either that situation may soon start to reverse or other credit-enhanced customers may soon be secured. Or both. Given the parlous state of the Nigerian economy, this is encouraging.
4. The Accugas post-2017 growth story reads like a valedictory aimed directly ay HE President Kiir and his team.
5. Were the parties awaiting some degree of NGN stability before announcing this, I wonder? Is the fabled Accugas debt restructuring soon to follow?
Anyway, I'm cautiously encouraged.
Best wishes, all.