Member Info for cautionyourblast

Https://www.sudanspost.com/breaking-kiir-sacks-finance-minister-nilepet-chief-and-2-undersecretaries/

Https://x.com/ssemtv/status/1811114170588229898

On reflection, you're right, TIL. I was extremely angry about not being able to get on the call for a second year in a row: things should've been fully tested in advance. But my comments on this board during the meeting and yesterday morning were too strong, so I withdraw them. Sorry, Sally.

I echo that; thanks so much, Streets.

Thanks, atrust. It seems:

the worst of the fx nightmare is over;

Niger oil and wind are now going to be progressed;

Management remain confident on SS;

Nigerian customers are keen to take more gas.

I cannot stress strongly enough how value-destructive Sally Marshak has been and continues to be, in my opinion. Total farce yet again, just like last year and other dial-in events we have had before that. I want her out. By the way, if the company attempts to get lse to moderate (delete) this comment, I suggest that they look back at all yesterday's posts.

Thanks, TIL. Very helpful as sound was poor at that point.

Actually, porsche, I got that too. He was a bit hesitant, but expected the TF switch to NGN debt to be completed by year end; which I *think* means drawing down NGN under the TF, swinging it into USD, and using it to pay off the existing Accugas dollar creditors.

If anyone can post what they took from the meeting I'd be grateful .

All I got was Andrew saying that AI authors may have their own agendas when they write about SS. And that Niger (wind and oil, I assume) would be 25% equity, 75% debt.

I was on for the last 15 minutes and the sound quality was very poor.

The IR department are incompetent and need to be replaced.

This is an absolute shambles. I'm finally on (40 mins after the start) and you can barely understand the audio.

Muppet show.

Same for me. It's quite pathetic.

Dear Andrew

Please fire your entire investor relations department.

Kind regards

MIne doesn't work

I get a message:

error message webinar attendee join link usage erxhausted with link

Every year a TOTAL SHAMBLES

Mine hit my inbox at 9.26am London time, komakino.

I hope you're linked up now. Maybe in your spam? (Sorry if you've checked there already.)

AK is going nowhere. Instits would want their heads examining if they tried to force him out. The business issues within his control have gone relatively well (though hardly stellarly). Questions do need to be addressed, mind: and if SS fails, a soul-search over group strategy needs to take place (perhaps it already has with Joe Pagop on the scene).

A power station purchase could be interesting. I'd like to see IRR/payback period (we all would!) Of course, it begs the question as to whether a proportion of our revenue is then set by the state: I'm nowhere near the detail on that (I've never even set foot in Nigeria). Thanks,so much for your top-notch sleuthing, TIL.

I'm dialling in for the non-event.

Streets: never mind your Carry On Up The Khyber reference to the Khasi of Calabar - Carry On Being Suspended more like!

I had a trawl around the news releases, Streets.

https://euro.dayfr.com/business/2339968.html

In this article, the Gabonese minister for Economy and Investments has stated that they'll operate it themselves (GNOC).

1. Comments about AK considering his position if SS falls through are interesting, but...

2. Although he gets paid (very) well, he's in Savannah up to his eyeballs so interests are aligned; and...

3. Sedition sounds attractive, but who would we get in his place to move to Nigeria, travel the region and take up the mantle with the same patience, energy and intelligence? Could a replacement really get acquisitions across the line if he can't? So perhaps...

4. If SS does fail, it's time to look at the strategy and assess if smaller deals or smaller, non-operating tranches or different country deals are more likely to come to fruition. Furthermore....

5. We are attempting to succeed in the most difficult regions to do business on the planet. Our last couple of years have involved:

a. An immediate expropriation of a major acquisition.

b. An attempt to seize control of a revenue-generating company resulting in its bank accounts being frozen for distribution.

c. A commencement of civil war in a country which has the sole transportation route for crude operations we are in the process of acquiring (and curtailment of evacuation of oil due to pipeline damage in said country) and significant deterioration in security in country of that proposed acquisition.

d. A coup in a country where we have proven drills and the evacuation pipeline, just finished, being attacked.

e. Collapse of the currency in our current sole country of revenue generation resulting in fx losses that have proven extremely difficult to ameliorate.

f. Significant increase in cost of debt service.

How much of this is down to AK? Maybe some, but mostly not some. We must be careful for what we wish.

Thanks, Streets: getting together the intelligent posters on this bulletin board at the AGM is an excellent suggestion. If I were in the UK, I would join you. Please do get together with SOG if you can, good people!

Rocky: thanks for your kind offer to gather questions. I've already posted in my request for a dial-in and also many of my thoughts on the financials are set out in my posts here on 8 and 10 June (though admittedly these are more observations than questions).

Management has gone black ops on so many issues and IR are olympically useless, so it's hard to know which of the many questions might get a response, but here are some obvious ones:

a. Nick, please explain clearly the Transitional Facility (I couldn't make sense of it, and no one here has chimed in).

b. Has the Naira collapse caused credit distress for any customers? Are we exercising payment in any circumstance through our credit security arrangements?

c. Do we expect customers to take more gas once the project work at Uquo is completed?

d. Do we expect to add customers in the coming months or is the local economic environment just too difficult right now?

e. Had we taken a Cameroonian dividend on midstream for 2024, how much would it have been? i.e. what's our annual portion of the over bottom line in Cameroon for 2023?

f. Is the additional capacity from the acquisition of Stubb Creek minority interests immediately monetisable on completion?

g. Why has Niger been so slow? Please give an update on the R3 spur and tie-in to the Niger-Benin pipeline.

Not asking about SS or the arbitration: it's not going to elicit any responses.

That'll do from me. Happy Sunday, everyone.

You can see why Savannah is treading carefully here...

https://x.com/Frank_Stones/status/1803369020109750500

Thanks, shareminator. Always interesting to see other people's analysis.

At the current price, ttm PE is about 25. Excluding cash it's probably 14. This should re-rate below 50 pence and isn't anywhere near an attractive buy until the low 40s. I'm a bit surprised that it hasn't fallen much as the year has progressed.

I might buy back in if it dips considerably, but I can't see how it's possibly worth the current multiple, despite the death of the ICE car being much exaggerated.