Member Info for cautionyourblast

"What price for size, shag?" 🧐

Mwahahaaa! Thanks, kat!

Initial thoughts on this:

1. Our operating (commercial) interest in SC after this goes through appears to be 100%, with the legal ownership at 62.5% (or just over). There seems to be an unusual arrangement with UER here: see the 2022 glossy. Please correct me if I've misunderstood.

2. This deal is to be funded by a Standard Bank facility and cash reserves of the company. Good. Suggests group liquidity remains healthy.

3. I've mentioned before that the existing Nigeria TOP contracts have thus far involved a lot more paying than taking. This acquisition suggests that either that situation may soon start to reverse or other credit-enhanced customers may soon be secured. Or both. Given the parlous state of the Nigerian economy, this is encouraging.

4. The Accugas post-2017 growth story reads like a valedictory aimed directly ay HE President Kiir and his team.

5. Were the parties awaiting some degree of NGN stability before announcing this, I wonder? Is the fabled Accugas debt restructuring soon to follow?

Anyway, I'm cautiously encouraged.

Best wishes, all.

I thought some of you might like to revisit this presentation from the end of 2021. Posted without further comment.

https://wp-savannah-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/12/Restoration-to-AIM-and-major-acquisition-presentation-December-2021.pdf

My understanding is that Petronas is joint operator via the OCs so I'm assuming Savannah would be so too.

I'm speculating in imagining some sort of de minimis consideration in the event of excessive delay.

From discussion with an experienced arbitrator (top-notch guy and a close friend), we've reached a conclusion (punt) of mid-2025 for a Chadian outcome. Should it be in Savannah's favour, then we're into Mareva injunctions.

Still....Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, Gabon, Tunisia, etc. My African geography has improved no end.

Thanks for the post, komakino. So this decision appears to be "no one gets paid until I say so". I imagine it was a long-shot request anyway.

RR, it may be that Savannah has been advised that public disclosure of status on various aspects of the arbitration may weaken our case and/or breach contractual confidentialities. I agree it's frustrating to have no information, though.

Kinkell's post from the other place sums things up well.

Nothing lasts forever, including Savannah news blackouts and share suspensions.

Poor old Knottie is going to start to wonder which way is up. Morning, all.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/022924-force-majeure-declared-on-south-sudans-dar-blend-crude-loadings-sources

Https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1765402411449885044

I sense it's fill-or-kill before this.

But we've all been reading tea leaves for months given the IR Omertà.

A target price of 96 pence given the current basket price is delusional. This share starts to look like fair value in the low 40s.

Thanks for the insight, TIL.

I'm watching "I, Claudius" on youtube at present. Comparable levels of intrigue and skulduggery....

Https://www.africa-press.net/south-sudan/all-news/splm-io-demands-reinstatement-of-petroleum-ministers-powers

Https://cityreviewss.com/looming-controversy-over-shake-up-at-ministry-of-petroleum/

I was about to post the same link, oilbagger!

Savannah BoD and PR team should watch this, although it'll most likely simply be reinforcing their own philosophy.

The conclave continues to work wonders. I begin to wonder if Savannah's hoped-for success buys me a home, or just a care home.

Good morning, everyone.

I suspect there're five obvious impacts for Savannah here:

1. Our NGN cash pile is fast becoming monopoly money and we can expect another fx accounting hit in the financials.

2. The fabled debt restructuring will only occur once the Nigerian banks are fully confident that the devaluation process has reached an end. They'll be directed by Abuja on this.

3. We will receive significantly more NGN for our contracted TOP USD receivables going forward, but this may mostly be based on the existing (and now apparently highly sage) credit guarantees being triggered. This looks very good for Savannah.

4. Adding new customers will be tough and absolutely must be credit-enhanced.

5. Other Nigerian domestic acquisition opportunities may arise as existing operators decide to leave or find themselves in distress.

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1758025761611559345

By the way "The World For Sale" by Javier Blas and Jack Farchy is a corking read.

Many thanks, tichtich.

Still questions remain on the mechanism here, but I guess that'll become clear in the near future.

Best wishes!

...the Tender Offer RNS.

Can anyone please explain it in plain English rather than the RNS gobbledegook?

Thanks.

1 February 2024

Savannah Energy PLC

("Savannah" or "the Company")

South Sudan Acquisition Update

 

Further to the Company's announcement on 14 December 2023, the Company confirms that it remains suspended from trading on AIM, with a revised cancellation date of 2 April 2024, whilst it continues to advance the various workstreams, including receipt of in-country approvals, required to complete the acquisition of PETRONAS International Corporation Limited's energy business in South Sudan. Further updates will be provided as and when appropriate.

 

Pushed to 2 April

Sage words from Bangrak. At current basket prices, 45 pence is where this starts to look a bit more attractive to me, but it's hardly a steal even there.

My FY2024 profit prediction at USD10-12m from some weeks back looks rather optimistic today.

Cash will gradually be eroded from here, absent a change in basket prices or a significant increase in production (which they're working on) or some strong cost cutting. A number of people invested for the dividend; expect a sober analysis and outlook on that front in the interims towards the end of Feb.

This is a well-run company. An investment opportunity may well recur. Of course, if the basket price rallies then current prices may look defensible. But for now, it's still over-valued, I believe. Surprised it didn't drop more yesterday.

Thanks, Trust.

Goodness knows where we are with the NGN stuff.

Where is Mr Beattie? Lagos? Abuja? Bank Street?