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Would someone with a subscription be kind enough to share the article here, please?
https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2022/07/26/mahamat-idriss-deby-expected-to-make-official-visit-to-riyadh,109802120-art
May be of interest. Gives some context to the delay in the CC deal being finalised, albeit that the allafrica pieces are partly opinion pieces.
Best wishes
https://allafrica.com/stories/202207210009.html
https://allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00082838.html
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/15/chads-national-dialogue-to-start-in-august
I’m slightly concerned by the Chadian acronyms. They all seem expletive.
Thanks so much for posting this, ZENGAS. We’d be in the dark on much of this without you.
I agree with Mount Teide and others; this action by the Chadian government should put us nearer the conclusion (completion?) of this deal. I actually think it is good news having read it a couple of times. If we’re to believe it, the key blockers have been removed. The fate of the finance minister still seems unclear and, of course, we don’t know what Mr Deby thinks (except, one assumes, he’d quite like some cash and apparently he’s just had his childhood pal arrested). But the oil minister, who is onside for the deal, appears to have won the day, if not the war. There’s clearly a political battle going on to decide who runs the country.
I do wonder what the situation is at the fields. Exxon people are all back in the lone star state. Are the nodding donkeys lying idle? Who is protecting the site and performing maintenance? Savannah? I’ve no idea. May be one of you does.
I’m still trying to envisage a scenario in which the deal doesn’t happen, but having difficulty with that. If Savannah isn’t going to operate it, who is? Certainly not Exxon. The Chad government, one imagines have neither the resources nor the skills, nor the funds to pay out Exxon and Petronas (who wouldn’t accept such a move anyway, unless they had absolutely no choice (assets sequestered)).
Anyway: this deal has taken at least 18 elapsed months of precious management time. Perhaps it’s wishful thinking, but I think this is going to be concluded in the next few weeks. Of course, if it were to fail, then the Chad renewables deals fall away too. And we could focus so much more on Niger, etc.
An update on the Niger plan of action was mooted by AK about a month ago and I also wonder if this has been delayed by a regulatory blackout. I think SAVE are very wise to stay silent on all fronts until the CC path ahead is clear, although it’s frustrating as a shareholder.
I still think the deal gets done and Agadem can come out of his 47 pence purdah (come on, Aggers!)
Best wishes, everyone, and thanks for your top-notch posts.
These financials should mark a turning point for the SP. The groundwork is done and management has now learned not to over-promise, apparently.
Spin-off of BE far preferable to fund-raise in current structure.
Tend not to post much here due to sea of green filtered people to which I regularly add.
Be well, pdub.
Thanks ZENGAS.
I really dislike the final sentence here.
It’s a waiting game.
I think you’ll be getting your Sunseeker, Aggers.
https://www.sunseeker.com/
A few more of us might, give what Knotty is setting out.
No surprises to see komakino doing it properly with lime mortar: sand and cement will just crack and fall out. It’s a quality bulletin board here.
Reporting deadlines were “temporarily” relaxed by the FCA from four to six months because of covid (what else!) and I don’t think they’ve moved back.
I’m betting on 30 June this year, but as you say who knows...
You’re quite right, Aggers; thanks for the correction. See, this is why you shouldn’t go quiet; I’ll post something stupid!
Great to have you back, Agadem. Don’t worry about your notes boring people; your insights are always good here.
Completely agree on Accugas debt restructuring and Niger update: even if there’re obstacles, at this stage it would be better to inform shareholders.
Given the Friday RNS, there’s no way that the Chad deal isn’t happening now and your win-win-win comment on lower cost, better environmental credentials and benefits locally is well-made.
I hope the timing of this announcement means that we see 18 months of CC revenue and profit booked in the 30 June 2022 interims. Perhaps I’m being a bit schoolboy enthusiastic, though. When this deal is booked, it will be so transformative for the financial metrics that I would expect SAVE to land in quite a few II and PI positively-filtered lists. I would hope that would continue to drive momentum and a move towards your fêted 89 pence.
Bit concerning to see that Agadem hasn’t posted since 8 April now. Does anyone know anything?
Agadem: if you’re reading this, you’ve a lot of supporters here. We hope you’re ok.
Very best wishes
Andrew
There’re an awful lot of things going on here.
I feel a decent briefing in the glossy on recruitment, execution risk and management bandwidth is in order.
In fairness, Knotty has talked about recruitment and training of the right people a lot in recent broadcasts, but I’m sure I’m not the only person thinking about how all of these wonderful opportunities and assets get executed and fully exploited.
Oh yes! Thanks! Well spotted!
Perhaps this is too obvious but I wonder if a renewable project in Cameroon also gets announced at some point. Of course, Cameroon is midstream-focussed for SAVE at present, so it’s obviously a bit different to Niger and Chad. Just a thought...
Final sentence from Knotty:
“We expect to announce our involvement in further large-scale greenfield power projects over the course of the next 12 months.”
Blimey.
Thanks, OaW; good of you.
....and I believe AK has said that Brent is our proxy in Chad, though Doba crude generally trades at a premium to Brent, I understand.
Stupid question here: is SAVE impacted by Rishi’s make-it-up-as-you-go-long, that’ll-instill-business-confidence tax?
...and I cannot resist adding that FCF jumps to $376m in the SAVE presentation when oil is at $100/bbl.