Member Info for cautionyourblast

Https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1752617731143192648

*Sigh*

There goes another USD50m.

USD1.559m.

Cash USD107.2m

Https://sudantribune.com/article281654/

True enough, Dave. I might well buy in at a lower price. I guess my valuation doesn't include interest income on the cash pile, so that could raise it a bit.

I've tried to back up my thoughts with some maths. Of course, I might well be wrong. Nothing anybody writes on these boards has any effect on the price though, even at the small-cap end of the market. I should've sold my whole position at over a £1, but I got a bit attached, so my final sale was 79 pence. Hope I won't make that mistake again.

The reason I post here, is that I've followed the share for a long time, and under-and over-valuations appear easier to spot than on most shares. It's not an attempt to annoy anyone.

...is maybe £120-125m for SLP at the moment on prudent assumptions. So under 50 pence.

The cash pile after the Dec dividend was about £87m.

I used a PE of five on predicted profit after tax.

It still looks over-valued and the market is beginning to reflect that.

Great business. Good management team. Price too rich.

Someone mentioned a potential for a bid. Possible if you were very bullish on ICE vehicles (I am!) But what impact would a take-private have on the Samancor offtake?

DYOR

Morning all,

komakino's recent post that we have Savannah employees in SS is encouraging (and in danger of getting lost in the panto of the fake job site). Thanks, komakino.

Assuming the source isn't mucking us all around (and I've no reason to believe they are), it got me thinking:

1. We've got people on the ground, but not via jobs advertised on the Savannah website.

2. So we've probably acquired them in a services agreement or SPA from a third-party (Petronas being the obvious guess).

3. Such contract was not deemed worthy of, or material for, an RNS (or we got some legal dispensation to waive RNS given confidentiality issues, if that's even possible).

4. These people are unlikely to be third-party contractors to Savannah as they wouldn't say that they were working for Savannah (unless the message got twisted in translation).

5. So the company is deep into operational issues on the ground (one assumes these partly involve inspection of capital assets and operational performance, though I'd have expected third party QC and QS types doing this, tbh).

6. All this makes me wonder how Andrew and his senior colleagues are spending their days on the ground. Perhaps more of it involves a hard hat and safety glasses than I had previously imagined. He can't be permanently camped outside the minister's office.

7. Finally, as Rocky has been told Andrew remains in Juba (thanks, Rocky), I can't believe funding is an issue at this stage.

8. This is all conjecture, of course.

Can any oil & gas experts on the board shed any light here?

Separate point: it's pretty clear to me that the operational update on the rest of the business is being held back until 1 Feb.

Best wishes

Pages 7 to 9 of the 2020 glossy offer a great explanation of the need to hold cash from Stuart Murray, our wonderful former chairman. A number of us are quoted too. It still is relevant.

FCF generation is what I'll be watching, not dividend announcements. The cash pile is priced in...and operations at current basket prices are unlikely to be particularly cash-accretive.

I don't currently hold, but may buy again when the price is right.

Chuckles over a post-run beer!

By the way (and I know this wasn't your comment, komakino), if financing is the problem holding up the SS deal, surely Knotty would be in Geneva and not Juba. Banks aren't going to finance it. It'll be PXF from Petronas or a trading house or someone private with a larger risk appetite where this ticket would be relatively small for them.

The minister for petroleum, Puot Kang Chol, has been awfully quiet. I wonder who else is padding about the Juba government buildings with a visitor badge on.

Https://cityreviewss.com/cabinet-ratifies-investment-pact-with-china/

...should look rather a lot like Q1 profit, bar adjustments. Once it's out, do the brokers and the Investors Chronicle guy adjust their forecasts? This continues to trade on an ex-cash forward PE (given current basket price) which is significantly higher than it has been historically.

Well done, Rocky.

I'm afraid this much air silence for this long is virtually never a precursor to big, positive news (at least on AIM).

However, since we're about as well-informed as a JustStopOil protestor is on the practicality of NetZero, anything is possible, I suppose. I think we relist before Easter and probably in February.

Nigerian ops are cash-generative and we *should* get some form of Chadian payday in the next couple of years, but goodness there're rather a lot of elephants in the room.

Andrew and Nick have to face the investors when relisting comes about. And evasive answers and filibustering will not do.

Https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/risks-opportunities-created-petronas-divestment-south-makuach-j--0wcif?trk=feed-detail_main-feed-card_feed-article-content

Hi Sailplane

This is unlikely to be too popular, but it's probably worthless until oil starts flowing from R1234. My model had minus 2.4 pence per share. Given where it is, I think the market just values it at zero until there's some production.

From my late August posts:

"My model shows the following valuation.

Nigeria (including central corporate overhead) 9.4p

Niger -2.4p

Chad 16.2p

Cameroon 9.1p

South Sudan 54.8p

Total 87.2p

It’s a discounted cashflow model. Here are some of the inputs.

All cashflows cease on 1 January 2029.

Interest rate on debt 15%

Discount factor on future cashflows 15%

Crude price USD80/bbl

Direct cost USD40/bbl

South Sudan closes effective 1 Jan 2022

Nigerian gas sales grow at 6% p.a.

All renewables ignored."

And explanatory assumptions:

"Niger: 1,500 bopd from Q4 2024, 5,000 bopd from Q4 25. Capex total $48m to Q4 2025. A bit brutal, perhaps, but intended to reflect building pipeline, tie-in, overall establishment of operations from...sand."

We can also push the Niger cashflows back a bit now, I think. Other matters seem more pressing: NGN/USD mismatch; SS; etc. Savannah will want to keep their end of the bargain in Niger, but will be limited in bandwidth, I think. They may be seeking a partner, of course. Yacine's world, I think.

Where's Andrew?

Kind regards,

Hundreds of shareholders

Reading the concluding paragraphs here puts our investments in perspective.

Admittedly it is from the odious United Nations, but paras 18-22 made me pause and reflect.

https://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan/statement-mr-nicholas-haysom-special-representative-secretary-general-and-head-unmiss-united-nations-security-council-briefing-14-december-2023?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shared&utm_source=twitter.com

That's what I was trying to say, Sandwiches.

Maybe everyone's filtered me... :-(

The cancellation date is 13 December 2022.

I imagine the AD publication is not possible as certain confidentiality clauses may be breached. Or mgmt has just decided to pull the shutters down until all conditions precedent are satisfied. Or something else.

This RNS talks about cancellation.

Of course, it was cunningly entitled "Readmission..."

I suspect 1 Feb 2024 is fill-or-kill.

13 Dec 2022 08:00

RNS Number : 4007J

AIM

13 December 2022 

NOTICE

13/12/2022 - 08:00

NOTICE OF CANCELLATION OF ADMISSION TO TRADING ON AIM

Following a Reverse Takeover the following securities have been cancelled from trading on AIM with effect from the time and date of this notice.

 

I was thinking the same, PF. Seems like 1 February might actually be a deadline rather than an aspirational closing date. I suspect that the wording is less a message for the market and more a message for the negotiating parties.

At least the timescales between the RNS updates and putative deadlines are getting shorter. I continue to believe that licence extension is one of the main outstanding issues.